What I learnt in Geography this week.....

How are lava type, volcano shape and eruption style linked?

2012-02-28T14:15:00.000-08:00

So, I have covered all the boundary types and seeing as I have had a lot of requests on this topic I thought I would move on to the different volcano types and what dictates their formation. Sorry that there has not been much activity on here for a while but there is lots on its way to make up for it!!!

I have to admit that I think the fact that silica, alone, can be used to link all this volcano stuff together is pretty amazing (and surely I can't be the only one!) but how excatly is this the case......

How are lava type, volcano shape and eruption style linked?

Convergent Boundaries

2012-02-08T12:08:00.000-08:00

Oceanic vs Oceanic
STAGE 1 - Subduction produces partial melting and the formation of a chain of volcanoes = island arc
STAGE 2 - Build up of intrusive and extrusive igneous material, mixed with sediments, forms larger material
STAGE 3 - The island chain joins up and sediments form an accretionary wedge or prism which builds on to the fore arc area

When the plates collide, one is usually slightly denser than the other, or one is moving slightly faster then the other, so subduction occurs. Consequential subduction and its appending processes are much the same as with oceanic vs continental convergence. When volcanoes erupt islands can form and they usually form characteristically curving lines of new volcanic land (island arcs), with deep trenches. They islands can evolve over millions of years to form major landmasses, like Japan and Indonesia.
Hazards
- Volcanoes = wide cariety of typesm explosive and effusive
- Earthquakes = can be very powerful such as in Indonesia in 2004
- Tidal waves = offshore earthquakes generates waves and the steep islands often suffer inundation, the other cause is collapse of oceanic islands i.e Stromboli

Oceanic vs Continental
STAGE 1 - Weight of continental sediment causes subsidence of the crust
STAGE 2 - Subduction develops and an island arc forms
STAGE 3 + 4 - Compression from plate movement cause the crust to thicken and shorten through folding and thrust faulting. Fold mountain chains are formed i.e the Andes
- Mount St Helens was formed in this way, the Cascades represent the curved line of volcanoes jusr inland on the Western Seaboard
- Thicker the crust the more explosive the volcano is

Oceanic crust is denser than continental crust so when they collide the oceanic crust is subducted. As oceanic crust descends, friction with the overlying crust builds up, generating powerful shallow-to-deep focus earthquakes that chart the descent of subducting crust. Rocks scraped off the descending plate and folding of continental crust aids fold mountain formation, whereas deep trenches form along the seaward edge of convergent boundaries. Friction generated by subduction processes generates lots of heat that enables partial melting of the crust. Consequently magmas derived from here are less dense than the mantle so it rises up through fissures until it reaches the surface. This magma is also silica enriched, therefore more viscous, hence the explosive volcanic eruptions and presence of intrusions like batholiths.

Hazards
- Very explosive volcanoes i.e Mount St Helens and Popacatepetl

Structure of Subduction Zones

- The shallower the angle of subduction, the greater the Benioff zone, therefore earthquakes can be felt over a larger area. This means it is better/safer to live in an area with a greater angle of subduction.
Characteristics of Subduction Zones
- Trenches - generally 5-8km deep, although Mariana Trench is 11km
- Belt of earthquakes with the shallowest experienced closest to the trench
- Island arcs (archipelago) form, which are usually curved i.e the Aleutian Islands

Continental vs Continental
--> This is the process of mountain building as it often reffered to as ab Orogeny, and the moutains as Orogenic Belts
- We are currently in the Himalayan orogeny, where the process of continental collision is still active today
- Over the last 100ma, India has moved northwards. The Himalayan orogeny started well below the equator where an ocean existed to its north called Tethys. The subduction of the oceanic lithosphere thickened the plate to 100km and forced up the fold mountains.
Continental plates have similar densities and their buoyancy means no subduction occurs. Instead, they are associated with orogeny. Volcanics associated with earlier subduction and sediments scraped off the vanishing ocean floor are mixed up and compressed to form young fold mountain chains with deep roots in the lithosphere.
Hazards
- Plate has moved very rapidly (200mm/yr)
- Earthquakes occur often
- Crust is too thick for diapirs of magma to make it to the surface so there are no volcanoes
- Mass movement

Wilson Cycle = Opening and Closing of Oceans

2012-02-08T11:52:00.000-08:00

Rifting controls the opening and closing of oceans. The cycle is known as the Wilson Cycle and it illustrates the balance between new crust being created by volcanic eruptions and destruction of crust at subduction zones, to maintain Earth's fixed size. This helps to explain why there are subduction zones at the edges of most continents.

There are various stages to the Wilson Cycle and each one can be seen in operation across the world today:

The embryonic stage, involves uplift and continental crust extention, resulting in the the formation of rift valleys (e.g. the East African Rift System).
The young stage involves the evolution of rift valleys into spreading regions with thin strips of ocean crust between the rifted continental sections. This forms a narrow, parallel-sided sea, like the Red Sea that is opening between NE Africa and Arabia.
The mature stage is characterised by widening of basin and its continued development into a major ocean flanked by continental shelves and with the continual production of new, hot, oceanic crust along the ridge (e.g. Atlantic Ocean).
Eventually, this expanding system becomes unstable and, away from the ridge, the oldest oceanic lithosphere sinks back into the asthenosphere, forming an oceanic trench subduction system, such as the situation in the western Pacific Ocean. Onset of subduction at the ocean boundary marks the subduction stage (e.g. the Pacific Ocean).
Once subduction overtakes formation of new crust at the constructive boundary, the ocean begins to 'shrink'. Island arc's collide and create young mountain ranges around the periphery of the 'shrinking' ocean. This marks the terminal stage of the cycle (e.g. the Mediterranean).
The end stage occurs when all the oceanic crust between the continental masses has subducted, and the continents converge along a collision zone characterised by an active fold mountain belt, such as the Himalayas. The plate boundary becomes inactive, but the boundary between the two plates remains as a zone of lithospheric weakness. Therefore it has the potential to the site of a new rift and so the cycle continues.

Divergent Boundaries

2012-02-08T00:00:00.000-08:00

One of the plate margins is divergent (constructive) and this, in short, is when plates move away from each other, thereby generating tensional forces. As such, they are characterised by shallow-focus earthquakes and volcanism, producing volcanoes which erupt basaltic magma (unevolved) via Icelandic and Hawian style eruptions.

- Start intra-plate
- Upwelling of magma in a plume, driven by thermo-nuclear reactions in the Gutenburg Discontinuity
- Plume rises and convection starts at the base of the lithosphere
- Convection currents rise and then diverge, creating high temperatures that cause updoming of the crust, along with tensional forces that pull it apart
- In continental crust this can produce rift valley systems such as the East African Rift Valley
- In oceanic crust, new oceanic crust is produced as oceanic ridges are created and seafloor spreading occurs

Rifting
- As convection commences the plate is thinned out by a series of extention faults
- As the plate gradually becomes thinner, volcanoes and lakes start to form in the valley
- More volcanoes continue to form until a complete ridge exists, the plate is forced apart and new basaltic oceanic crust begins to form on either side
- As the lakes connect, and the level of the land drops, the ocean floods the valley and forms an elongated sea such as the Red Sea
e.g East African Rift Valley System where eventually a new plate will form (called the Somalia Plate, and the rest of Africa, the Nubia Plate). The sea will eventually flood the valley, connecting to the Red Sea.

e.g Where spreading occurs beneath major landmasses, heating and subsequent updoming leads to fracturing and rifting. As the sides of the rift move apart, central sections drop down to form rift valleys. The Great East African Rift Valley, indicates where the crust has begaun to pull apart, and active volcanoes such as Mount Kilimanjaro and Mount Kenya are surface evidence of igneous activity beneath. At 4000km long, up to 50km wide and 600m in depth, this feature might widen still, allowing sea inundation. To the north, two rifts have widened into the Red Sea and Gulf of Arabia. Here, the rifting has continued, with new sea floor forming between Africa on the south-western side and Arabia on the north-eastern side.
- Other examples of past rift zones include the steep-sided valley of the River Rhine, athlough there are ancient volcanoes nearby to show how active this region once was, it is no longer subject to rifting.

Oceanic Ridges
= Lines of submarine volcanoes that form a continuous feature throughout the world's oceans
= Centres of spreading where the youngest oceanic rocks are fund closest to the ridge
- They form the longest continuous uplifted feature, with a total combined length of over 60,000km
- Occur on divergent boundaries as a weaker zone is exposed to an increase in surface heat. Hotter crust expandsa new ridge forms and the central part of the ridge may feature a central valley if a section of crust has subsided into the magma below. This split in the crust provides a lower pressure zone where, if more lava erupts, submarine volcanoes can form. If such eruptions persist then volcanoes will develop until they reach the surface, with islands formed in this way i.e Iceland!

Transform Faults
- Spreading does not occur at the same rate along the ridge
- Transform faults offset the ridge, giving it a blocky appearance
- Distance between the fault varies and they are responsilbe for many undersea earthquakes, but due to a lack of vertical displacement, tsunami's are rarely generated

Hazards
- Frequent low grade seismicity (earthquakes below 5 on Richter Scale)
- Intense and frequent volcanism
- Ultra slow spreading = 10mm/yr i.e Atlantic, Ultra fast spreading = 100mm/yr i.e East Pacific and Galapagos

Back to tectonics (FINALLY!!!) - Conservative Margins and Hotspots summary

2012-02-07T12:46:00.000-08:00

Hello everyone! I hope the exam went well for you all! We even got mention in the local newspaper - Twin Sails Bridge part of A-level exam - perhaps it would have been interesting to ask students if they would consider visiting Poole before and after studying the bridge for 2 months, then conduct a Mann Whitney U to see if there was a significant difference between number of students inclined to visit the area! Anyway I can now happily say that we will never have to study Poole/Twin Sails Bridge again!!! This means that we can finally get back to good old tectonics.....

Correct me if I am wrong but I think before Christmas I only got as far as outlining the basics of this module, so I have quite a bit to catch up on! I have already lost count of the number of you who have asked very nicely for some case study orientated posts so I will try and find the time over the coming weeks to go over case studies whilst also finding the time to write about Iceland (apologises but I am starting to get a little excited and a condition of me going was that I don't talk about it at home!). For now though I will leave you with a few brief notes on conservative boundaries and hotspots (sorry if the image quality is a bit poor but I gave up trying to find good diagrams online so just photographed my notes) - I am hoping to cover all the volcano stuff this week so I can focus on earthquakes over half term so be warned that a lot of posts may appear over the coming days!

Conservative Margins

These margins are sometimes reffered to as passive or slip margins and occur where two plates meet and the direction of plate motion is either parallel or nearly parallel. No crust is destroyed or created, although these are areas of frequent seismic activity as the build up of friction as the plates pass each other is released by earthquakes. This boundary is not associated with volcanism.
- No subduction or abduction
- Plates try ot move laterally past each other
- Most infamous are the San Andreas Fault in the USA and the North Antolian Fault in Istanbul [both are overdue a huge earthquake!]
- No volcanism
- Generates massive earthquakes

Hotspots
- These are not boundaries, as such, but rather a surface representation of surface plumes
- Plates do not always split above mantle plumes, but as the plate moves over the magma source, it generates a chain of islands
- The oreintation of the island gives an indication of the direction of the plate movement relative to the plume

Hawaii
= Chain of islands, connected to the Emperor Seamount chain (submerged)
= The islands become progressively older to the northwest, indicating the plate is moving in this direction
= This was anticipated before the discovery of continental drift as the islands become shallower in gradient, more advanced vegetation succession and have deeper soils to the northwest.
Other hotspots
- Yellowstone Caldera is probably the niggest and highest risk
- Iceland is unusual being a large plume underneath a divergent boundary
This mantle plume theory is stil hotly debated and poorly understood - it is one of the few remaining mysteries of tectonic theory, which is otherwise now widely accepted.

Divergent and convergent boundary notes are on the way!

Last minute Poole revision - What is the issue?

2012-02-01T12:58:00.000-08:00

I had quite a few people approach me today to ask me if I could write up a post on a few last minute things. First up was fieldwork but Millie has very kindly covered this and is currently running one of her invaluable live online workshop for any last minute questions so instead I am going to focus on the other areas people requested - some facts and statistics you could include to enhance your answers tomorrow and a brief summary of the synoptic links that can be made.....This will greatly be in note form, so apologises for the poor use of language and just general disorganisation!

It has taken me a while to realise (and accept!) that this is an Issues Evaluation exam not a research exam so we need to demonstrate tomorrow how well we can all 'think like Geographers', not how much information we have absorbed about Poole! I suspect that most of you will be reciting this in your sleep by now but the issue in this topic is:

People are concerned about the environmental damage that may occur because of the regeneration of the area around Holes Bay which has arisen because of changes in industry and population growth but might be resolved by following the advice of the appropriate assessment.

Holes Bay is an area of international importance due to its ornithological interest, which has resulted in international protection for the area via Ramsar status, SSSI's and SPA's, and the worry is that regeneration could detrimentally affect this delicate area. By abiding by the appropriate assessment the environmental impacts should be minimised. However, regeneration is needed in Poole as population has rapidly expanded and the structure changed, meaning different needs have to be accommodated for. Also, due to geographical barriers, urban sprawl cannot occur so regeneration of brownfield sites is the only viable option. Changes in population have been accompanied by changes in industry and consequential shifts in employment, resulting in more people commuting into Poole or travelling from Poole to find employment, both of which have increased congestion.

Just a few noteworthy facts:

- Poole's population has expanded from c.19,000 in 1900 to c.141,000 today

- The population is expected to increase by a further 8.7% (to c.151,481) by 2016

- 20.3% of the population is 65+ which is higher than the UK average (think ageing population)

- 24.8% of population are between the ages of 45-64 which is above UK average (link to umemployment issues)

- 78.7% of Poole's workforce are employed in services

- Sandbanks is the 4th most expensive place to live in the world

- In 2006, Poole was ranked the most unaffordable town to live in in the UK

- Poole made £158 million from tourism in 2002 alone

- Existing bridge built in 1927 to replace the Iron Swing bridge built in 1885. This bridge replaced the Wooden Toll bridge (built in 1834) which had too steep a gradient for horses

- Twin Sails Bridge has cost £37 million plus and additional £2 million for the road network

- Economic impact of £400 million

- Twin Sails Bridge consists 10.8m wide carriageway providing two taffic lanes, 1.5m wide cycleways along both edges of carriageway, two 2.5m pedestrian footpaths = total width of 19m

- Leaves pivoted through an 88 degree angle by two hydraulic rams

Population Synoptic Link: This is the most obvious one! The AS population module links very well with regards to how our transition through the Demographic Transition Model has influenced urban structure and form and caused it to change accordingly. Migration also is related as whilst the population has grown steadily since the 1960s, inward migration to counteract suburbanisation is responsible for most of the growth , with this occuring as a consequence of retirement. This provides a great link to ageing populations! The UK has an ageing population and many elderly people choose to retire along the coast and in the countryside, for obvious reasons, and whilst some have the disposable incomes required to live in Sandbanks, most don't and so affordable housing is needed. This could be taken one step further by mentioning social changes that have occured, like an increase in divorce and amount of people living alone etc which means that more houses are needed.

Development and Globalisation Synoptic Link: Taken mention of the movement through the DTM one step further, mention could be made to the Rostow Model of Development as demographic constraints are being placed on future economic and social development in Poole so for them to continue to develop they need to dilute the demographic constraints by providing much need housing and services. Unemployment is an issue in Poole and the Twin Sails Bridge is designed to catalyse further regeneration by opening up 26 hectares of brownfield, with the hope that businesses will invest. If and when they do, it will kickstart the model of cumulative causation, provide much needed employment and most likely lead to further regeneration. With good road and rail links to London and good sea access to Europe from a naturally protected harbour, and with reduced congestion (hopefully!) and an available workforce it is likely to seem like an attractive place for TNCs who want to settle inside the EU to avoid trading tariffs.

Energy Synoptic Link: Sustainabilty, with regards to converting it from a concept to reality - due to the environmental considerations the regeneration needs to be sustainable. Measures to ensure this is so have included the planned use of solar panels on roofs to heat water to help regeneration scheme meet the Code for Sustainable Homes Level 4. The new bridge provides better facilities for cyclists with the hope that car usage will be reduced, whilst car sharing schemes have been encouraged in the area. On the other hand you could argue that regeneration has increased use of fossil fuels, thereby increasing pollution and consequential environmental impacts.

Climate Synoptic Link: First one would be climate change; currently the construction work is increasing amount of anthropogenic forcing in the short term. However green wedges improve air flow and quality. Increasing urban development will add to the urban heat island effect which increases urban temperatures. Questions over whether area is suitable for regeneration as vulnerale to sea level rise (risk increased by isostatic readjustment), more storms in an area already suspectible area that experiences full force of prevailing winds, more flooding etc.

Rivers Synoptic Link: Poole is low lying and vulnerable to flooding, with many of the areas lying in flood zones. Some areas are already protected but regeneration is likely to be accompanied by further protection. Developing areas like Hamworthy Gate will increase the amount of impermeable surfaces, altering hydrology, most notably increasing runoff and consequently the flood risk. Wetlands are also very vulnerable to excess runoff.

Coasts Synoptic Link: This kind of overlaps with rivers and climate but the location of Poole and its geology leaves it vulnerable to erosion. You also have the spit there which provides natural protection for this natural harbour but needs management to maintain stability. This is likely to happen due to economic value of the area. Isostatic readjustment and eustatic sea level rise pose a huge threat to this low lying coast line so questions are raised over whether or not we should redevelop it. Touristic value of this area which could be classed as a honeypot site.

You also have all the links to current affairs such as economic climate, olympic games etc...

So there are plenty more synpotic links and this covers all of the modules we have/do study.... apart from volcanoes. A few of you did remark that I would never be able to link this to volcanoes so here is my attempt (just for a bit of fun!)....

If Katla was to erupt and close European airspace for three years then Europe would have a greater reliance on using ports to sustain trade. Therefore Poole would see an increase in use of the port as it provides a good link to Europe and London. Also if people cannot travel abroad to go on holiday then honeypot sites such as Poole would likely seen an influx of tourists, with people having to opt to holdiays within the UK. The Twin Sails Bridge would help Poole cope with increased traffic flows and the regeneration would provide the required facilities to support this move, such as hotels and restrauants etc.

Good luck to everyone in the exam tomorrow!!! Just remember, we have to THINK LIKE GEOGRAPHERS!

History of Poole and the Twin Sails Bridge project

2012-01-26T12:16:00.000-08:00

Here are a couple of timelines related to Poole that hopefully summarise the information on the Poole Borough website and various other sources regarding the general history of Poole and the more recent regeneration plan with particular focus on the Twin Sails Bridge - not that exciting but it is only for one more week!!!

The first timeline covers the basic general history of Poole. I am guessing the most important things to take from this are the changes in population and industry over time as, combined, they have driven the need for regeneration in Poole.

The second timeline covers (in more detail than I am hoping we need to know!) the key events in the planning and completion of the first stage of the regeneration, the building of the Twin Sails Bridge.

If you have not been on the Poole Borough website for a while it might be worth checking out again as they have added lots of more documents, like a leaflet on the new road layout, that are probably worth a quick read.
I am starting to run out of ideas about what else to cover between now and the exam as I think I have covered most of the geographical skills stuff (apart from fieldwork) so if anyone has anything they would like me to cover then just let me know!

Interactive Map for Poole

2012-01-19T08:45:00.000-08:00

Hopefully, this map summarises the key information about Poole and the regeneration plan. I thought I would try presenting it on this map to reduce the amount I write (not quite sure how well it really worked though!)

Let me know if you like this way of presenting information as if so I may make a world map version for each of the A2 modules to summarise the case studies we are meant to know as part of our revision for the summer. I hope the Poole revision is going well - a couple of timelines are on their way!

Sampling Methods

2012-01-17T08:18:00.000-08:00

Sampling methods are something most of us seem to have forgotten about from last year (it probably wouldn't do you any harm to dig out you green skills booklet from last year!) but it is important that we mention them in our methodology. So what excatly are they and why do we need/use them???

SAMPLING = A means of collecting data that is representative of a particular issue or subject area without actually having to record every bit of data
--->All data collection operates within a number of constraints, although particularly the area that has been selected fro studt and the time that is available for data collection. Whilst in some circumstances sampling is necessary, using sampling means it is possible to save time and money without jeopardising the quality of the data that is collected.

Avoiding Bias.....
- When deciding how to take a sample and how many samples to take the main consideration is obtaining representative results = avoiding bias
- Bias can be caused by many things such as not taking enough samples or collecting the data at the wrong time or by chossing the wrong method in order to decide who/what you will sample

Sampling Methods.....
Point Sampling :- Involves choosing individual points and sampling at this points, such as specific houses down a street
Line Sampling :- Involves taking measurements along a line, for example to sample vegetation across sand dunes you may lay a tape across the dune
Random Sampling :- Sampling using random numbers, where each item in the parent population must have an equal chance of being selected for the sample
Advantages:
        - Removes human bias involved in the selection process
Disadvantages:
        - If sample size is quite small you might obtain an unrepresentative result
        - Access may be an issue
Stratified Sampling :- Deliberately choosing which bits to sample - usually to ensure coverage of all areas you want to study, based on prior knowledge.
Advantages:
        - Avoids bias that can arise from random and systematic sampling as ensures that each group is fairly represented
        - Ensures all areas are covered
Disadvantages:
        - Difficult to know excatly which subsets of data you want to include
        - Access may be a problem
        - Requires good prior knowledge of an area
Systematic Sampling :- Data is collected at a set interval, such as every fifth house or every 5 metres
Advantages:
        - Quicker, easiers and more convenient to carry out than random sampling and can be more accurate because avoids the remote possibility that the random sample selects too many examples from one part of the distribution
        - Ensures good coverage of an area
        - Accurately reflects continous changes in variables
Disadvantages:
        - Can inadvertently pick up bias, e.g sampling every 50 metres along a beach may also coincide with location of groynes
        - May exclude key sites
Pragmatic Sampling :- Based on practical reasons, for example you cannot trespass on peoples property and would not sample sediment in a deep fast flowing river

Combining Sampling Methods.......
It is possible to combine some of the sampling methods during a fieldwork investigation and this is often the best thing to do so, as an example if you were to plan a questionnaire for Poole, you could use startified sampling to ensure that various age/gender groups are included within but use systematic sampling to decide who precisely to ask, such as every 5th person. Whilst you would probably use a combination of stratified and pragmatic to decide on the location for your questionnaire.

Chi Squared

2012-01-15T10:10:00.000-08:00

Last Stats test - although probably my least favourite!!!
Chi Squared = used to show whether there is a siginficant difference between the expected frequencies and observed frequencies in one or more categories
---> Could be used in Poole, for number of people walking in the Hamworthy regeneration site, before and after the brdige is built
Worked Example (the one we did in class)
As with the others, the first two things to do are to set a null and positive hypothesis (there will/won't be a difference between expected and observed frequencies) and then set the data in a table. O represents the observed data, so this is the relevant figures from the table in the AIB, or if you were to conduct fieldwork i.e a traffic survey, the results of your survey. Then you have to add up the totals of the columns and rows....
For row SOA = 76 + 16 + 8
                      = 100
For column 'Owner Occupied' = 76 + 94
                                                 = 170
.....The most important total to get correct is the GRAND TOTAL. This is the sum of all the row totals which, if you have done it correctly, will also equal the sum of all the column totals and vice versa
Sum of Row totals = 100 + 100
                               = 200
Sum of Column totals = 170 + 18 + 12
                                    = 200
Next you have to calculate the expected values, E.
E = row total x column total
For the first 'box':
E = 100 x 170 = 85
           200
Note, that it is just coincidence (or clever planning by the teachers!) that the E values are the same down the columns - this is not always the case.
Now you have both O and E and so can use the equation. For each 'box' you need to minus E from O, square the answer and then divide by E (O – E)²
                                                                    E
For the first box:
O = 76 and E = 85
So, O - E = 76 - 85 = -9
-9 x -9 = 81
81 = 81
E     85
= 0.95 (to 2.d.p)
The final step is to add all those numbers up that you have just calculated (the red numbers) as, refering back to the formula, this gives you the value of Chi Squared
0.95 + 5.44 + 0.67 + 0.95 + 5.44 + 0.67 = 14.12
This is your value of Chi Squared but before you can 'use' it you have to compare the result with the critical values according to degrees of freedom. The degree of freedom for Chi Squared can be calculated by:
Degree of Freedom = (number of columns- 1) x (number of rows -1)
With this example, we can say with 99% statistical significance that there is a difference between the observed and expected values.

Well, that is the last of the statistical tests we need to know - if anyone would like any more examples from the AIB then just ask; I realise that the above example is one we did in class, so at some stage I may add another example from the AIB. Next up I am going to focus on fieldwork, like sampling techniques etc and also summarising some general information about Poole and the regeneration project - I hope the revision is going well!

Mann Whitney U

2012-01-12T13:41:00.000-08:00

Mann Whitney U = A test for difference between two sets of data
---> If we were studying Poole for a long period of time you could conduct a traffic survey at two different times, then use the two sets of results to do a Mann Whitney U test to see if there is a significant difference in the data. This statistical test could then be followed by calculating percentage difference to see how significant the difference is - could be utilised to prove/disprove whether traffic, and therefore congestion, is seasonal in Poole or even before and after the Twin Sails bridge has been built to see if traffic flows across the existing Lifting Bridge have changed.
---> Statistical result of Mann Whitney U is often used to aid the geographical explanation of the distributions mapped
---> Note that whilst result tells us that there is a significant difference, it cannot be used to explain why that difference exists

There are two ways you can do the Mann Whitney U calculation - a non-mathematical way and a slightly more mathematical way. The first is the way we did it in class......
Again, the first stage is to set a null and positive hypothesis:
Positive Hypothesis:- There will be a difference between the two sets of data
Null Hypothesis:- There will not be a difference between the two sets of data
A table is, yet again, the best way to set this statistical test out:
For every piece of data in set X give it a score if it is bigger than a piece of data in B or 0.5 if it is the same:
- 21 gets a score of 1 as only 23 is bigger than it
- 12 gets a score of 7.5 as 23, 18, 17, 17, 13, 20 and 14 are bigger than it, giving it 7 and it is equal to 12, adding an extra 0.5. Thereby bringing its total to 7.5
Then you simply do the same, but in reverse , for data set Y:Add up the totals and take the smaller of the two totals as your U value:

Mann Whitney U is unusual as it is the only stats test where your result has to be smaller than the critical value to be significant. You can also have two data sets with differing amounts of data within.
Critical Value for 10 values in each data set is 23 so this difference is not statistically significant so we have to accept the null hypothesis.
The second, more mathematical way honestly looks a lot worse than it actually is, although if you are comfortable with using the above method, it is probably best to stick to that one (I probably will!), so this is just for those of you who are interested - I am going to use the first example we did in class......

First, rank all the values for both samples from the smallest (=1) to the largest, ranking samples the same way you do in Spearman's Rank if more than one is the same:

Total the ranks in each column:

Calculate the U values for both samples using the following formula [Note that na in formula should be larger sample size if difference is present]:
Ua = (10x10) + (10x11) - 70
2
= 85

Ub = (10x10) + (10x11) - 137
2
= 18
Then you compare the lowest result to the critical values; this is below 23 and so the positive hypothesis can be accepted.

Well, I am nearly there with all the stats test - the last, Chi Squared, will probably appear sometime tomorrow!!!

Spearman's Rank

2012-01-11T09:54:00.000-08:00

SPEARMAN'S RANK:- A test for the relationship between two variables
---> Not only does this test highlight a relationship but it also indicates the strength and statistical significance of the relationship, if any

---> You should always get a value between 1 and -1, if not then you have gone wrong somewhere! The closer to 1 the stronger the positive relationship, the closer to -1 the stronger the negative relationship.

---> Remember you have to compare you result to the critical values (I believe we get given these in the exam when appropriate) to see whether or not the relationship is statistically significant enough to accept and use to formulate conclusions regarding variables investigated.

Worked Example using Column C and Column F in AIB

The first thing you need to do is to set a positive and null hypothesis; the easiest way to do this is to say, 'There will be a relationship between x and y' and 'There will not be a relationship between x and y'. Although it seems a bit strange that you have to set a null hypothesis, it is actually more statistically reliable to disprove a null hypothesis than to prove the alternative hypothesis.
Positive Hypothesis: There will be a relationship between number of owner occupied dwellings as a % of total dwellings and of number of people in higher managerial and professional occupations as a % of total economically active.

Null Hypothesis: There will not be a relationship between number of owner occupied dwellings as a % of total dwellings and of number of people in higher managerial and professional occupations as a % of total economically active.
Again, the easiest way to do this calculation is within a table. What you need to do is to rank each variable independently, giving 1 to the highest and so on. When you have two values that are the same you add together the places they would rank, then divide it by how many would rank there (e.g if three values would rank 13, you add together 13, 14 and 15 and find the middle value which is 14 and asign each one 14), then skip the same number of ranks to ensure that the lowest ranking number is given the same number as n (number of values) - sorry this is really hard to explain in words but hopefully will become a bit clearer in a minute!
Hopefully, the ranking part is quite logical. Within the first variable, when there was two 73, for example, that would both rank 14, you need to add 14 and 15 together, then divide by 2.

14 + 15 = 29
29/2 = 14.5 so, rank both 14.5 then skip rank 15 and move onto 16 for the next ranking number

After you have independently ranked both data sets, you need to work out the difference between the
ranks.....
Basically all you do, using first one as an example: 2 - 3 = -1
Then you need to square the difference, hence why it does not matter if the difference is negative.....

After squaring the difference, you need to add up all the values in that column, to give you the sigma d squared bit from the orginal equation...

S = 423
Now you have all the values you need so can just plug the numbers into the equation
R_s = 1 – √ (6 x Σd²)/n³ – n
R_s = 1 – √ (6 x 423)/18³ – 18
R_s = 1 – √ 2538/5814
R_s = 1 – 0.436532507
R_s= 0.56
That is the calculation, itself, completed but now you have to see whether or not you can accept the relationship shown using critical values.
When n = 18
Critical Values:
95% = 0.4014
99% = 0.5501
---> Data reliability is related to the size of the sample. The more data you collect, the more reliable your result.
I think normally you are given these in the exam, but I suppose if the examiner was not feeling that nice, they could ask you to work out the 'Degree of Freedom', then use a graph to work out the values yourself!
Degree of Freedom = n - 2
So, in this example 18 - 2 = 16, so you draw a line up from 16 on the x-axis
---> After doing this, I can say that I can accept the positive hypothesis as it has a 99% significance, meaning that there is a relationship between the two variables. Looking at the Spearman's Rank value, I can then say that there is a relatively strong positive correlation within the data, so as the number of people in higher managerial and professional jobs increases so does home ownership in Poole. Without even knowing the first thing about Poole, this kind of makes sense, in a general context, but it is important to remember that just because the two variables correlate, it does not really prove anything - only further research can actually prove that one thing affects the other.

So, that is the last of the stats test that AS students need to know for their skills exam - I hope these posts have been helpful to you as well, there is one on fieldwork sampling on its way which might also be useful, and I hope the revision for your first A-level Geography exam is going well - unfortunately, for us A2 students, the stats test don't stop there; Mann Whitney U and Chi Squared are on there way!

Standard Deviation

2012-01-11T04:52:00.000-08:00

STANDARD DEVIATION :- describes the average amount by which the values in a data set vary from the mean for that set.
---> It indicates the amount of clustering around the mean; showing how much the values are clustered allows the analysis of data to be taken much further than simply measuring central tendency.
In a normal tendency:-
- 68% of the values lie within +/- 1 Standard Deviation (SD) of the mean
- 95% of the values lie within +/- 2 SD of the mean
- 99% of the values lie within +/- 3 SD of the mean
---> A low SD indicates a more clustered distribution. A higher SD indicates a more spread-out/dispersed distribution.

Worked Example using Column B in AIB (Population density- persons per hectare)

4.42, 18.52, 16.73, 22.02, 38.44, 24.39, 36.64, 37.99, 23.04, 53.24, 33.66, 37.07, 34.97, 20.61, 27.76, 25.61, 26.04, 14.87
n=18
First thing to do is work out the mean, in the same way mentioned above: 495.9/18 = 27.55

Then, you need to subtract the mean, individually, from each of the values in the data set and then square the result. This can take a while but I find it easiest and quickest to do it in a little table....

x	4.42	18.52	16.73	22.02	38.44	24.29	36.64	37.99	23.04
(x-x^-)²	535.00	81.54	117.07	30.57	118.59	10.63	82.63	109.00	20.34

x	53.24	33.66	37.07	34.97	20.61	27.76.	25.61	26.04	14.87
(x-x^-)²	659.98	37.33	90.63	55.06	48.16	0.004	3.76	2.28	160.78

Next, you need to add up all the values on the bottom row of the table - the (x- xbar) squared results - and this gives you sigma (S)
S = 2163.4

Then divide this value by (n-1), remembering than n = number of samples/values

2163.4/18-1 = 127.26

Then square root the result to give you your SD value,

Square root of 127.26 = 11.28

---> This result indicates that 68% of the population densities for the different regions of Poole lie within +/- 11.28 of the mean (27.55), illustrating large disparity across Poole in terms of population density.

---> Ideally when doing Standard Deviation you should complete one for two sets of data and compare the results (like you do for the Rivers fieldwork where you complete standard deviation for sediment size in pool's and riffles then compare the results, before using knowledge of Hjulstrom and velocity changes you recorded to explain why results deviate accordingly). So, as an example for Poole, if you calculate the standard deviation for 'owner occupied dwelling as % of total dwellings' (Column C) and 'rented from council or Housing Association as % of total dwellings' (Column D) you would see that Column C displays greater deviation than Column D, suggesting that across Poole, houses rented from the council are move evenly distributed than those privately owned and occupied, then using the background knowledge of Poole you have, you could try to explain why this trend occurs.

Mean, Mode, Median and Interquartile Range

2012-01-10T14:01:00.000-08:00

I realise that stats test are not everyone ones favourite thing to do and that most people find them very confusing, with even the thought of a table of numbers quite scary......however, with practice they are not too bad and you could never be expected to do a entire stats test in an exam due to time constraints; so as long as you are prepared for them, they can be quite easy marks to get (hopefully!).

I am going to start with the basics and cover the measures of central tendency as well as Interquartile range which, as a measure of dispersion, would perhaps be better placed with Standard Deviation. Any AS students reading this, apologises for the frequent references to Poole but I hope it still helps! The other 4 stats tests are quite lengthy so I will do a separate post for each one - they will hopefully appear very soon!

MEAN:- Add the numbers up and divide by the numbe of numbers
---> Often favoured over mode and median as takes into account extreme values, which the others disregard.
e.g 2,4,6,8,10,12,14
Mean = 56
              7
          = 8
MODE:- Most common number - if no number is more common then there is 'no mode'
e.g 2,4,6,8,10,12,14
Mode= no mode
e.g 2,2,4,6,6,6,8,10,10,12,14
Mode = 6
---> In Poole fieldwork it could be used to calculate which is the most common bird found in Holes Bay, for example
MEDIAN:- the (n+1) = value
                             2
e.g 2,4,6,8,10,12,14
Median = 4th value = 8
---> Could be used after traffic counts to estimate daily/weekly traffic flows across a particular area

---> If a set of values has a symmetrical distribution (normal distribution), the mean, mode and median will be at the same place. However, if the distribution is skewed, the mode will still be at the point of highest frequency but the median and mean will each lie elsewhere.

INTERQUARTILE RANGE (IQR) :- Distance between the 75th percentile (UQ) and the 25th percentile (LQ)
---> IQR is a measure of dispersion, with the bigger the IQR, the wider the distribution in the data.
---> Often used to draw 'box and whisker plots'/dispersion diagrams as they illustrate spread of a number of values around the mean value, enabling a comparison of spread and/or bunching of data.
---> IQR and Standard Deviation both measure dispersion (spread), but IQR is more resistant to outliers whilst Standard Deviation is sensitive to outliers and extreme observations.
Lower Quartile (LQ) = (n+1) = value
                                          4
Upper Quartile (UQ) = 3(n+1) = value
                                           4
IQR = UQ - LQ
e.g 2,4,6,8,10,12,14
LQ = (7+1) = 2nd value = 4
              4
UQ = 3(7+1) = 6th value = 12
               4
IQR = 12 - 4 = 8

Hopefully most people are okay with this, just ask though if you would like a worked example from the AIB.....

Standard Deviation and Spearman's Rank are on the way (I will probably do Chi Squared and Mann Whitney U at some point later this week - AS students, you are lucky enough not to have to know these two yet!).

As always, let me know if I have made any mistakes or if there is anything else you would like me to cover!!!

Graphical Methods of Presenting Data

2012-01-04T08:25:00.000-08:00

This is perhaps more relevant to AS students with their up and coming skills exam but knowing about all the lovely graphs we are expected to understand and use is no bad thing!

Line Graphs and Bar Graphs

There are several different types of line graphs that can be used in geographical enquiries:

- Simple Line Graphs = drawn to show a single series of data e.g precipitation

- Comparative Line Graphs = show two or more data sets on the same graph. Often, lines are drawn using the same scales on the x-axis and the y-axis e.g flood-storm hydrograph

- Compound Line Graphs = drawn with several different components (AS students, bewarned you will see a lot of these in the Energy module!). Important to remember to use axis to measure the 'bands/layers' separately.

- Divergent Line Graphs = used when one set of data is proided for part of the period under consideration and then this data set is split into separate components for another part of the period.

A similar variety of bar graphs exists.....

- Simple Bar Graphs = shows a single set of data

- Comparative Bar Graphs = shows two or more sets of data. The columns for each division along the x-axis are drawn side by side

- Compound Bar Graphs = show how the total in any one bar is divided up between a number of subtotals

- Divergent Bar Graphs = start as simple bar garphs but then become compound bar graphs when subtotals become avaliable

Advantages of using Bar Graphs

show each data category in a frequency distribution
display relative numbers/proportions of multiple categories
summarize a large amount of data in a visual, easily intepretable form
make trends easier to highlight than tables do
estimates can be made quickly and accurately
permit visual guidance on accuracy and reasonableness of calculations
accessible to a wide audience

Disadvantages of using Bar Graphs

often require additional explanation
fail to expose key assumptions, causes, impacts and patterns
can be easily manipulated to give false impressions

Scatter Graphs

= show nature of the relationship, if any exist, between two sets of variables

- Positive Relationship = both variables increase

- Negative Relationship = one variable increases and the other decreases

- No Relationship = no pattern, ith points distributed at random
- Strength of the relationship presented is also indicated, once a line of best fit is drawn (although, it is not always suitable to draw one). The greater the number of points within a closer proximity to the best fit line the stronger the relationship; allowing analysis to be made upon which conclusions can be drawn. Such analysis is subjective though and so often carrying out a Spearman's Rank is a better option, if you want the most accurate and precise expression of strength and reliability of the relationshiop between variables.

Pie Charts

= used to show the proportion of the total represented by each category; with each sector representing a component and the size of the sector illustrating what proportion that component contributes to the whole
angle = number in the category x 360
total number

Advantages of using Pie Charts

display relative proportions of multiple classes of data
size of the circle can be made proportional to the total quantity it represents
summarize a large data set in visual form
be visually simpler than other types of graphs
permit a visual check of the reasonableness or accuracy of calculations
require minimal additional explanation
be easily understood due to widespread use in business and the media

Disadvantages of using Pie Charts

do not easily reveal exact values
Many pie charts may be needed to show changes over time
fail to reveal key assumptions, causes, effects, or patterns
be easily manipulated to yield false impressions

Triangular Graphs= really just a scatter graph that shows three sets of variables

- usually used when plotting employment structures (primary, secodnary and tertiary sectors) or soil structure

Kite Diagrams= plotted to describe distribution of different species along a transect line; so used to compare changes in different variables

- most commonly used for dune transects

Radial Diagrams

Used to show:-

- ORIENTATIONS as given by points on a compass; often used to indicate oreintations of particles in glacial deposits so direction of ice flow can be determined

- CONTINUOUS CYCLE, such as daily or annual progressions

Dispersion Diagrams

- Sometimes called 'Box and Whisker plots'

- Used to show spread of a number of values, displaying range, median, interquartile range, lower quartile range and upper quartile range

I realise that this isn't the most exciting stuff to read but I couldn't think of a more interesting way to write this all up - however, fellow A2 students there is hopefully some Poole-related intertactive timelines and maps on the way! But first, I need to cover statistical tests, especially considering how much my class seemed to 'love' doing them last week.....

Maps, Maps and a Few More Maps.....

2011-12-31T05:57:00.001-08:00

Apologisesfor being on the quiet side with regards to blogging - I hope you all had a lovely Christmas and that the revision is going well (sorry to have to remind you all!).

Considering that I haven't really written anything of great relevance this past term for AS students and A2 students also need to be able to use the geographical skills introduced at AS, I thought I would start off with going over some of the basics. Hopefully this will be of use to AS students in preparation for your skills exam, you will just have to bear with the possibly frequent references to Poole and its 'exciting' new bridge - so what better place to start then maps, especially as the map at the back of AIB looks like an invitation to construct a Choropleth map!

Maps with located symbols

= Located proportional symbols are drawn on maps to show location and number/size of variable

- Symbols are drawn proportional in size to the size of the variable
- These maps might be used for showing the size of the biggest towns in a region. Often bars or circles are drawn to a suitable scale to illustrate comparative size, and placed upon the map to show the position of the towns, for example.
- Proportional bars are often favoured over proportional circles as they are easier to draw, read and scale. However, if the range in the data (difference between largest value and smallest value) is very big then proportional circles should be used as they offer greater efficiency in presenting large ranges. When complex data sets are used, proportional symbols can be divided (with circles, using proportionally sized pie charts).
- Used to show a limited number of points/areas and should not be used for illustrating spread of distribution

Maps showing movement

- These maps show movement by using flow lines, desire lines or trip lines

Flow lines = indicate a line of movement with its thickness representing the volume of movement and direction the line of flow

Flow lines

e.g. Flow line could be used to represent traffic flow in Poole and show where congestion becomes an issue as, as more traffic joins the route the line would get thicker and as the traffic leaves the route the flow line would get thinner.

Desire lines

Desire lines = shows strength of desire to move with lines of proportional thickness. They are very similar to flow lines except they generalise movement, showing movement only directly from A to B whilst flow lines follow the exact path of movement.
- often used to show the number of people travelling from each part of the catchment area of a central point
Trip lines = simplest map for showing movement, shows journeys from a starting point to a central point
- typically used to map school catchment areas or comparing the 'sphere of influence' of towns etc.

Maps showing distributions

- Distributions can be represented using choropleth maps, isoline maps or dot maps

Dot maps = used to represent spatial distribution where values and location are known by placing dots of equal size on a map.
- scales can be used, so one dot could represent 10 people or 100 people and a appropriate scale is chosen to ensure the map does not become too crowded
- clusters on the map will give an idea of trends in the data BUT can be tricky to read and are not very precise as dots blur into one, therefore nothing but basic trends and anomalies can be gained from the map
- issues are also presented with where excatly to place the dots
- however, dot maps do have the advantage that they show actually numbers so actual totals can be calculated (by adding up the dots!) - something that cannot be done with choropleth maps as they represent densitites rather than totals
- limitations include the difficulty of counting large numbers of dots in order to get a precise value and the need to have a large amount of initial information before drawing the map

Isoline maps = lines that join places with an equal value for a variable, seperating places with a higher value from those with a lower value
- ideal for showing gradual spatial change as avoids abrupt changes generated by boundary lines on choropleth maps; hence why temperature, velocity and relief are mapped in this way as they are continuous , without abrupt changes at any point (like population density, for example). There are plenty of examples of isolines, like isovels (water velocity), isobars (pressure), isotherms (temperature), isohyets (rainfall) and contour lines (height) - I am sure AS students have drawn a few isovels themselves over the last term!
- when isolines are drawn close together they represent a steep gradient in the values being plotted, when they are drawn far apart they represent a gentle gradient
- isolines can never cross each other as it implies that the point where they cross has two values
- however, a large amount of data is required for accurate drawing, so in reality many points are interpolated (drawn between two known points to represent the probable point where the line being plotted moght be assumed to occur) and they are unsuitable for showing discontinuous distributions

Choropleth maps = shows spatial distributions, using shadings of different densities to represent different densitites of the variable
- darker colours indicate higher numbers, although ideally different shades of the same colour should be used
- it is good practice to avoid leaving any areas unshaded - unless they actually have no population at all
- usually desirable to show about four or five different groups - more makes map confusing and fewer does not show enough variation to be useful
- perhaps most commonly used to illustrate population density but can be used for other variables such as indicating differences in land use from recreational land or type of forest cover
- provides a good visual impression of spatial change and shows areas which have similar densities and those with very different densities; therefore allows areas to be compared and contrasted
Has its limitations though:
- suggests abrupt changes at boundaries of shaded units, which again does not really occur in reality
- choropleths, on their own, are not suitable for showing total values and so are often used in conjunction with proportional symbol overlays to solve this problem
- sometimes difficult to distinguish between the different shades
- variations within the map units are hidden, and for this reason smaller units are better than large ones

Goad map = detailed town centre plan which shows every builidng. They can be coloured coded into type of business etc to make it easier to spot land use trends
- looking at land use maps of Poole past and present may be a good idea to see how industry has developed over the years and the extent of urban sprawl etc. There are lots of maps on the A Vision of Britain Through Time website....

Well, hopefully that pretty much covers all the maps we need know about and the skills booklet (if you can find yours from last year!) has some examples of each and how to plot them etc. I think perhaps choropleths maps could come up in the A2 exam, considering we have that blank map at the back of the AIB and population densities in the table at the back, although proportional located symbols could also be an option with divided circles/bars as the table contains three housing options as percentages and various employment figures - I think I would rather a choropleth!

Hopefully, this is of some use for AS students too! I found that be able to read off, and highlight trends and anomalies, from all the maps and graphs was really important - quoting figures is crucial!!!

Next up I think I will do a review of graphical methods of presenting data, before moving on to sampling techniques and the dreaded, by many, stats tests!

Evaluating the Usefulness of Websites Regarding Poole Regeneration

2011-12-15T00:53:00.000-08:00

Poole Borough (the website referenced in AIB) ---> This website is produced by the local council and, as such, is very useful for information relating to regeneration in Poole. Containing all the information regarding processes taking place (summarised into a timeline) and moves by the council to regenerate the area, accompanied by key documents and publications available for download, this website is probably the first place you should visit if you want to find out more about the regeneration. The website is very detailed and accurate with good archives that are easy to navigate (with a seperate section for regeneration in Poole and also the Twin Sails Bridge) through with language easily understandable for a general audience, meaning it is suitable for use by a group of A Level Geography students wishing to find out more about the Twin Sails Bridge and other elements of the regeneration. Links to websites of all the companies involved in the construction of the bridges are provided, permitting further research into how/when the bridge is being/has been built. The reliability and accessibility of this source, agruably makes it one of the best factual websites to use, however, although opinions are expressed in some of the leaflets/booklets contained within, opinions from all angles regarding the re-development are not presented, with only those supporting the bridge and re-development published. Therefore, when looking for the opinions of locals, this website is not the best one to use.

Bournemouth Echo ---> This website of a local newspaper provides frequent updates regarding progress being made with the Twin Sails Bridge and regeneration project, as with other newspaper websites like ThisIsDorset. The website contains good archives and search facilities, therefore making it easy to navigate your way around the information. As with any sources of information, it is good practice to validate statistics provided with other sources, meaning that often it is the amalgamation of sources that proves most useful and credible, rather than one single source. One benefit of this website over that of Poole Borough Council's is its more discursive nature/style of writing that permits presentation of opinions other than those of the council, with all readers having the ability to leave comments on articles, meaning opposition to such ideas are also presenting, providing one of the best sources of public opinions on developments. This difference between this and a national news agency such as the BBC is that public opinions are not as frequently expressed, instead focusing on the facts/statistics and illustrating what is occuring through videos. Also the only items to appear are the major 'milestones' in the regeneration process, not those just of concern for local people meaning that, again, balancing the use of both news-related sources, is the only way to gain the full picture.

New Civil Engineer ---> This is one of the websites referenced at the back of the AIB for supplying the diagrams of the bridge (page 5 of AIB), therefore, it is a sensible assumption to make that this website could be of use for an A Level student wishing to find out more about this topic. However, restrictions are placed on what a student can access as you have to be a subscriber to read the vast majority of the content, meaning most typical Geography students won't be able to access the site. This issue is not limited to just this site, with a few other sites that focus on more specific, technical detials of the bridge and regeneration also having restrictions in place, meaning gathering of information is more challenging.

Design Council ---> Provides more specific articles regarding the regeneration from architects points of view. Different to some of the other sources as provides analysis and evaluation of the project, referring it back to three key points, scale of development, quality and sustainability. Compared to other websites it is perhaps not as easy to find specific information required as the vast majority is irrelevant to this topic but it does provide an invaluable perspective from specialists rather than public opinion whilst also suggesting an alternative regeneration proposal for Poole. Websites like this, which focus more on the specific details do however start to become less accessible to a general audience as a consequence of language used.

Poole People ---> This is the website of a new political party which aims to improve the governance of this borough. From the website, it is probably clear to see that they oppose the proposals and so this website provides some of the reasons as to why people oppose the regeneration project, via video format as well as text-based explanations. It is because of this that this website could be of some use to students researching Poole regeneration plans but its usefulness beyond supplying reasons for opposition is debatable.

Tourist Information ---> With regards to finding general information about Poole and its current tourist attraction, many of the tourist information-based websites, are not that useful, such as Bournemouth and Poole and Poole Tourism, as they don't provide many specifics regarding numbers of visitors etc. On the other hand they do demonstrate what already exists in Poole and the surrounding area, as well as a bit of local history. Despite this, in terms of utility for this project, they are perhaps the least useful sites to use.

Social Media ---> Increasingly used to express opinions and convey messages to people around the world. The council have created their own Facebook page for the Twin Sails Bridge to keep the public informed about developments and it is regularly updated with links to relevant articles etc. This is very accessible and used in conjunction with their website provides ongoing accurate information. There are other groups on Facebook set up by members of the public by those opposing the bridge building although, as with discusion forums (for example, this particular one expresses the opposition from the boating community to two lifting bridges), they do not seemed to be utlised that much. Their collective usefulness only extends as far as providing an insight into the opinions of local people, although they by no means represent always the general consensus.

YouTube ---> Visual analysis of the bridge can only really be gained from either visiting Poole itself or from videos and they are quite a few 'exciting' videos on YouTtube that you could watch of the bridge being built and lifting up etc. These allow opinions to be formed on whether this iconic bridge can really blend in with the surrounding natural environment and the visual impact of such a construction. Many of these videos are on afore-mentioned websites but having them all in one place is a lot easier!

Google Earth/Google Maps ---> This form of GIS is useful in that satellite images of the surrounding area can be used to help understand which areas are going to be redeveloped and comparing such areas with the location of important conservation areas. They also indicate road layout and so how builidng a bridge would help to solve issues with traffic congestion in the area. This resource is best combined with others, such as flood risk evaluations by the Environment Agency and regeneration plans outlined on Poole Borough website to provide a visual representation of information and provide greater spatial awareness of impacts. One of the biggest uses of such a resource is the guidance it provides when conducting a Risk Assessment in preparation for conducting fieldwork in an area as risks can be highlighted such as proximity to dangerous roads, suitable/safe areas for conducting a traffic survey and where is suitable for large groups of students to cross roads, for example.

Overall, websites as a whole provide one the best sources of accessible information regarding this topical and contemporary topic and whilst some are clearly more useful and reliable than others, it is the combination of the secondary data provided that proves most significant and useful, providing a means of validation and information covering all of the key research areas.

Plate Tectonics - the basics...

2011-11-28T06:26:00.000-08:00

Seeing as we have just started vulcanicity, I thought it would be a good time for me to re-cap on what we should have learnt so far (we have covered quite a lot of new stuff, especially for non-Geologists such as myself, so this will probably have to be written over a series of posts)......

First up, we need to have a basic understanding of the evidence that exists which supports the theory of plate tectonics. As simply as it can be put, we have older evidence and newer evidence.

Older Evidence:
- Biology - same fossil formations found in different parts of the world
- Geology - rocks of same afe and type and displaying the same formations found across the globe. Similar glacial deposits are found in Antarctica, South America and India, now many thousands of kilometres apart; striations showing the same orientation when the continents are reunited, are found in Brazil and West Africa.
- Climate - fossils of plants that live in tropical conditions found in Antarctica, with it incredibly unlikely that tropical climatic conditions ever existed in Antarctica's current location. PLaces apart across the globe contain coal deposits of similar age that were formed in tropical conditions; they are no longer in tropical climatic belts therefore must have drifted apart since the Carboniferous period.

New Evidence:
- Discovery of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (1948)
- Paleomagnetism and the reversal of the Earths magnetic field (1950s)
- Seafloor spreading and then carbon dating of the seafloor rocks (1960s)

After passing the Curie Point, iron ions within the lava will
align to magnetic north......

.....This means that as the seafloor has spread, and magnetic reversal has occured in
the past, stripes are visible on the seafloor, preserving a record of the Earth's polarity at the time
of the lava cooling. This has helped to support the idea of seafloor spreading as the youngest
rock is located nearest to the ridge.

Hopefully, this timeline summarises the key dates and discoveries we need to know about!

Structure of the Earth:

1. Crust :- it is the upper layer which is solid and is divided into 2 types;
       - Oceanic crust = mainly basaltic in nature and around 6-10km thick. It is more dense and younger than continental curst
       - Continental crust = composed of a wide variety of igneous, metamorphic and sedimentary rock. Can be as much as 70km thick.

2. Moho Discontinuity :- boundary between the crust and the mantle. Average depth of 8km below oceanic crust and 32 km below continental crust. Has density similar tp an olivine-rich rock such as peridotite and so is less dense than the mantle; as such seismic waves accelerate in this region.

3. Mantle :- below the crust. Upper part is solid and is part of the lithosphere. Below this is the asthenosphere which is partly molten and can flow, whilst the rest of the mantle is liquid.
       - Lithosphere = consists of the outer solid part of the Earth, which includse the crust and rigid upper mantle. The lithosphere is about 100km thick, although thickness is age dependent (oldest=thickest). Lithosphere below the crust is brittle enough at some locations to produce earthquakes by faulting, such as within subducted oceanic plate.
      - Asthenosphere = ductile part of the Earth just below the lithosphere, including the lower mantle. It is about 180mk thick. Relatively slow seismic movements compared to the lithosphere.

4. Gutenburg Discontinuity :- boundary between the outer core and the mantle. Where thermal nuclear reactions occur that start convection cells off in the mantle, sending plutons of hot magma upwards. Located at a depth of about 2,800km and marks a sudden increase in density.

5. Outer Core :- liquid iron-nickel alloy, temperatures of over 6000C.

6. Inner Core : - Solid iron-nickel alloy. Even though temperature is higher than the outer core, the pressure produced by overlying weight is strong enough to prevent the liquid state.

How do we know this? Well, studies of earthquake waves, with regards to the velocities and paths of such waves, depends on what excatly it is they are passing through. P waves can travel through anything but S waves can only pass through solids; so by studying these waves it has been possible for scientists to determine the physical composition of the Earth's interior.

Convection Currents = Driving Force

- Occur in the mantle, very slow convection currents flow in the asthenosphere
- Provide horizontal forces on the plates of the lithosphere, with high temperatures causing updoming and tensional forces pulling the crust apart
- Start in the Gutenburg Discontinuity where thermal nuclear reactions send a pluton upwards

Boundary Types

The Earth's lithosphere is split up into 7 major plates, and around 14 minor ones, with some plates composed of both oceanic and continental crust. Between these plates are boundaries/margins, and there are three main types.......
----- I am going to do a seperate post for each boundary type but, in short:-

- Divergent (constructive) = Plates move away from each other, generating tensional forces. Consequently, characterised by shallow-focus earthquakes and volcanoes producing basaltic magma, forming new oceanic crust. Produces oceanic ridges and rift valleys.

- Convergent (destructive) = Plates move towards one another, generating compressional environments, therefore are characterised by deformation, volcanism, mountain building, seismicity and mineral deposits. Three possible types:-
                                                                - Oceanic vs Oceanic
                                                                - Oceanic vs Continental
                                                                - Continental vs Continental

- Conservative = Plates move laterally past each other, or in the same direction at different speeds. Produces a lot of shear stress as lithosphere is neither destroyed or created. No volcanic activity but lots of shallow-focus earthquakes, intensely shattered rock and characterised by production of faults parallel to plate movement.

The Revenge of Gaia - A student's book review

2011-11-16T00:40:00.000-08:00

I really need to get into the habitat of reading a book and then writing the book review, not waiting a few months before I do so - however, seeing as I read this book in the summer holidays, it will be a good test of how much I can remember!

This book is another one of James Lovelock's and you really need to have read the first one, if you are to make any sense of this book. The first book 'Gaia' explains the idea of the Gaia theory and how it was created. So, just for a quick reminder, the Gaia theory, in its simplest form, suggests that the physical and chemical conditions of the surface of the Earth, of the atmosphere, and of the oceans has been and is actively made fit and comfortable by the presence of life itself; whilst also encompassing the belief that life does not regulate or make the Earth comfortable for itself. Instead, regulation, at a state fit for life, is a property of the whole evolving system of life, air, ocean, and rocks and with a mathematical basis in the model Daisyworld which generates testable predictions. Basically, the Earth is kind of alive as one big organism and self-regulates - I will warn you again, read these books with quite an open mind and when you have the time to really think about and process the ideas the author is trying to present; it was a totally new, but intriguing, idea for me and I think I am still trying to totally get me head around it! Perhaps its no suprise that when this theory was first published it was viewed with great suspiscion and skepitism, but it seems to be becoming more widely accepted within the scientific community.

This time, instead of presenting and trying to prove the Gaia hypothesis, Lovelock applies it to global climate change, although he seems to prefer the use of global heating, which he thinks to some extent is unavoidable as a consequence of current levels of anthropogenic forcing and will abruptly occur. Throughout the book it is incredibly clear that he feels anthropogenic forcing is solely responsible for current and impending climatic alterations and that our actions have and prevail to destabilise the Earth and, as the title implies, in revenege Earth is readjusting and consequently generating less habitable conditions for us. Lovelock is definetly not afraid of presenting his ideas and views (for example, he clearly states his view that global climate change is irreversible, something which was not necessarily recieved so well by those trying to persuade people to lead more 'green' lifestyles!) in an attempt to alter the way we think and whilst I find it hard to accept everything he says, it is, again, an incredibly thought provoking book.

There are a couple ideas/views that Lovelock mentioned which have really stuck in my mind. As also touched upon in his first book, within The Revenge of Gaia he clearly emphasises his support for nuclear power, viewing it as an efficient and less environmentally damaging energy resource than those currently exploited (i.e oil and coal!). Nuclear power is always going to be a controversial issue, perhaps more so after events in Japan earlier this year, and so I wonder if Lovelock's view of nuclear power has changed in anyway since he wrote this book. It is a resource that could be exploited, but like all sources of energy it has its disadvantages and risks which cannot be ignored and also, it cannot solve the issue of removing the global dependency on oil. Many of his ideas almost seem to go against the more conventional way of thinking, i.e we should use appropriate technology (normally very low-tech) to enable sustainable development so that society can not only reduce anthropogenic forcing and sustain existance but also adapt to coming changes. Lovelock seems to feel that we need a more high-tech approach but not in an attempt to solve the coming 'climate crisis', as he feels we have already lost the oppurtunity to implement sustainable development, instead to enable mankind to perform a sustainable retreat from our current level of control and detrimental influence we have over Earth. This high-tech approach is the only way he feels that we can feed the world's population which is probably true. I fail to see how organic farming can remain an efficient and viable option in the future and with issues with energy supplies and future climatic alterations, traditional agricultural practices are going to become increasingly challenging to entertain. Feeding the global population is a common worry shared by many, including Lovelock, who suggested that Britain could be one of a very few countries (so long as we implemented tight rules on immigration) who could revert back to being self-sufficient and sustain its population in the future without import reliance. However, Lovelock's suggestion of who we could achieve this is interesting to say the least.............. he suggested that we took Scotland, England and Wales and reserved one for living space, one for food and left the remainder of the Britain as a Gaia friendly region. If this was every suggested in parliament I would be intrigued to see how they would decided which areas to have as which of these three key regions - could be an interested discussion! Would it work? Well, I cannot see any such decision being recieved well enough for such a scheme to work unless it was absolutely necessary so lets just hope it doesn't come to this! So what does he feel is the root cause of this environmental problem? Well, you can probably guess and most of you will agree - population growth. He thinks its quite simple, there are too many of us who live unsustainable lifestyles. If there was only about 1 billion of us on the planet then we could probably live whatever way we wanted to and have no lasting impact but there are 7 billion of us and so we simply cannot. Again, his answer is a 'sustainable retreat' from the detrimental control and influence we excercise over Gaia and if we fail to do so he warns we will experience "a global decline into a chaotic world ruled by brutal warlords on a devastated Earth" and practically on this note the book ends; unfortunately the idea of a 'chaotic world ruled by brutal warlords on a devasted Earth' could become a reality in the future as, currently we are prepared to fight over unessential resources i.e oil, so what will we be prepared to dp when we are fighting over items needed for survival, principally water and food? If you ask me, that is a slightly worrying thought and I don't feel very optimistic about the answer.......

Like my conclusion for the review of Gaia, its really hard to know what to say about this book but if you have the time, I would try and read it. For many of you, as with me, it will be a totally new way of thinking and perspective on life, consequently making it a very thought provoking book. I do wonder how Lovelock comes up with such ideas. I cannot deny that it does intrigue me and is a very different way of thinking, consequently I feel there is only so much my brain can cope with reading about it at one time. I quite like the way he links feedbacks together to try and prove his point but I think perhaps some of it has been slightly over thought and, perhaps because I am personally better at dealing with the tangible, I kind of feel like there is an element of reluctancy to test his theory - although I am not 100% sure how you could test this hypothesis! You cannot deny that many things are interlinked but the idea that Earth is sort of like an omniscient, omnipotent superorganism that self-regulates in an almost indentical way to the bodies process of homeostatis, and then in an act of revenge against anthropogenic activity, readjusts to make life difficult for humanity, is a leap am I struggling to make and accept in my mind.

Anyway, if you get around to reading it, let me know what you think! The ideas are hard to process and I found the easiest way to do so was to discuss it......

All those 'lovely' development acronyms............

2011-11-09T13:36:00.000-08:00

Okay, so I realise that my blogging record since we started back in September has been appalling but I am going to try and sort that out so that I start writing regular and (hopefully!) useful blog posts again. My plan for the next few weeks is to write all the book reviews of the books I have been reading over the last half term, write a couple posts on current issues/discursive topics relevant to the Development and Globalisation module we have just finished, write a summary sort of revision post on everything we have covered so far (with special emphasise on the areas that people have asked me to write posts on) and then make a start on our exciting new module - Plate Tectonics and Associated Hazards! So where to start? Well, after my classes appalling performance in the quiz on Monday, I thought a post on all the development acronyms was desperately required. There are quite a few to remember so let me know if I miss any off this list!

Classification of Countries
LDC = Less Developed Country
e.g Sierra Leone, Haiti, Myanmar
- 33 out of the 50 LDC's are sub-Saharan
- highest HDI ranking of LDC is Gabon at 119th and then South Africa at 121st (out of 197)
What makes an LDC?
1. Income below $750 per capita per year
2. Weak human resources
     - Health
     - Education
     - Nutrition and calorie uptake
3. Economic vulnerability
     - Instability of exports
     - Instability of agricultural production

MDC = More Developed Country
e.g USA, UK, Norway

NIC = Newly Industralised Country (more than last 40 years)
e.g South Korea, Hong Kong

RIC = Recently Industralised Country (last 40 years)
e.g Brazil, Russia

ORC = Oil-Rich Countries
e.g Qatar, Saudi Arabia

LLDC = Land-Locked Less Developed Country
e.g Central African Republic, Bhutan, Moldova, Bolivia
SIDS = Small Island Developing States
e.g Vanuata, Dominican Republic, Seychelles
HIPC = Heavily Indebted Poor Countries
e.g Rwanda, Ghana, Afghanistan
- 29 out of the 40 HIPC's in the world are sub-Saharan

Development Indicators
HDI = Human Development Index
= Compoisite indicator first used by the UN in 1990 to replace the sole use of GDP
Takes into account:-
   - GNI PPP per capita
   - Years of schooling
   - Life expectancy at birth
End figure is between 0 and 1, with proximity to 1 indicating development of a country
e.g 1st = Norway 0.943, 28th = UK 0.863, 84th = Brazil 0.718, 101st = China 0.687, 134th = India 0.547, 187th = DR Congo 0.286 - it is worth checking out an updated list as this years results were released by the UN last week

HPI = Happy Planet Index
- Introduced by the New Economics Foundation (NEF) in 2006
- Doesn't indicate which is the happiest country in the world but the relative ecological efficiency with which human well-being is delivered around the world
- First index to combine environmental efficiency with human well-being
- However it is based mainly on opinions not facts and so is subjective
e.g 1st = Costa Rica, 2nd = Dominican Republic, 3rd = Jamaica, 20th = China, 74th = UK

PQLI = Physical Quality of Life Index
- Developed in the 1970s due to dissatisifaction with the use of GDP
Takes into account:-
   - Literacy Rates
   - Infant Mortality
   - Life expectancy at age 1
- Criticised as there is considerable overlap between IMR and LE

GDP = Gross Domestic Product
= the total calue of goods and services within a country (including foreign companies)
What are the issues with using GDp per capita as a measure of development?
1. Inequalities: - In many LDCs the wealth remains with a few people with control over the government and industry so does not filter down through the population
2. Informal Employment : - In LDCs many people work in the informal business sector, such as street vending, and so money is exchanged without record and, therefore, does not appear during GDP calculations
3. Subsistence Lifestyles: - Many farmers lead a subsistence lifestyle and so it is impossible to accurately measure income and population

GNP = Gross National Product
= the total value of goods and services for a country's companies at home and abroad

GNI = Gross National Income
= GDP plus or minus the interest and repayments on debt

PPP = Purchasing Power Parity
= essentially a measure of the value of the local currency (basically how much can be brought in a country with a set amount of money)

International Groupings
EU = European Union
- 1957 Treaty of Rome created the European Economic Community (EEC) which had 6 members (France, Italy, West Germany, Belgium, Netherlands and Luxemburg). Slowly more and more countries have joined and there are now 27

AU = African Union
- Founded in 2002 to succeed the Organisation of African Unity (OAU)
- Includes all African nations apart from Morocco who left the OAU in 1984 and Madagascar who were suspended in 2009
Aims to: -
   - Accelerate political and socio-economic integration of the continet
   - Promote democracy and human rights
   - Achieve continental peace
   - Promote and defend Africa's voice in world affairs

NAFTA = North American Free Trade Agreement
- Founded in 1994 to create a free trade zone, encourage investment in each other and promote competition
- Grouping consists of USA, Canada and Mexico

NATO = North Atlantic Treaty Organisation
- Founded in 1949, with 28 members, and is classed as an intergovernmental military alliance
- Accounts for 70% of the world's defence spending

OPEC = Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries
- Founded in 1961 and consists of 12 countries all of which are net exporters of oil. They are responsible for setting the global oil prices

OECD = Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development
- Founded in 1961 to replace the Organisation of European Economic Cooperation (OEEC) which was founded in 1948
- Includes 34 countries and aims to stimulate economic progress and world trade

AOSIS = Alliance of Small Islands States
- Established in 1990 with 42 countries to consolidate the voices of SIDS to address global climate change

UN = United Nations
- Founded in 1945 and has 193 members
- Aims to promote and provide international law and security, economic development, social progression, human rights and world peace

APEC = Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
- 21 members bordering the Pacific Ocean all pledging free trade

G-8 = Group of 8
- Group of the worlds major economies. Founded in 1975 with France, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK and USA. Russia was then added to make it the G-8 in 1997.

G-20 = Group of 20
- The G20 was established in 1999, in the wake of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, to bring together major advanced and emerging economies to stabilize the global financial market.

G-77 = Group of 77
- Currently 130 members who are all LDCs, constituting the largest intergovernmental organisation of developing states in the UN, providing LDCs with a greater voice. China has always been an very close ally of this group but is not an offical member.

BRIC = Brazil, Russia, India, China / BRICM = BRIC + Mexico
- The world's emerging markets
- Why do the BRIC's matter?

All the others which I can't think of a catergory for

MDG = Millenium Development Goal

- Eight development goals that 23 internation organisations and all 193 UN members agreed to aim to achieve by 2015

TNC = Transnational Coporations MNC = Multinational Coporations
- Corporation that has production establishments or delivers services in at least two countries. Some TNCs have grown so large that they have budgets that exceed those of many countries in which they operate

FDI = Foreign Direct Investment

CPC = Communist Party of China

SEZ = Special Economic Zone
e.g Many set up in China, for example, like Bejing to act as growth poles and all development to spread

SAR = Special Adminstrive Regions
e.g Hong Kong

GATT = General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade
- Formed in 1947 during the UN Conference on Trade and Employment but only lasted until 1994 when it was replaced by WTO

WTO = World Trade Organisation
- Replaced GATT and aims to gradually lower barriers to international trade. Liberalising organisation created by capitalist economies

IMF = International Monetary Fund
- Founded in 1945 with 29 members but has since grown to 187
- Promotes international economic cooperation

DfID = Department for International Development
- UK government department that seperated from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in 1997
- Aims to promote sustainable development and eridicate world poverty

NEF = New Economics Foundation

UNESCO = United Nations Education, Scientific and Cultural Organisation

ERDF = European Regional Development Fund
- Aims to strengthen economic and social cohesion in the EU by correcting imbalances between its regions

ISO = International Organisation for Standardization
- Ensures the standardization of containerization across the globe

NGO = Non-Governmental Organisation

I don't think I really appreciated just how many there were until I started writing them down! Hope this helps - let me know if I missed any of the list....

Global population = 7 Billion

2011-10-31T01:37:00.000-07:00

UN predictions suggest that today the world's population reaches a staggering 7 billion and I have to admit that it is pretty cool, although slightly scary, to think that I share my birthday with the 7 billionth inhabitant of Earth - quite fitting considering it is Halloween!

The graph above illustrates where I fit into the picture - 5,582,734,706th person when I was born, making me the 80,819,731,395th person ever alive on Planet Earth - follow the link to find out which 1 of 7 billion you are....

I realise you are not going to be short of things to read on this topic over the coming weeks so I am not going to delve to much into the details of this pretty historic moment but first up for a few statistics that I am sure we could all slip into a Geography essay (or two!) over the common year...

Globally, every hour there are:
- 15,347 births
- 6, 418 deaths
= Average yearly increase of +1.162%
Fast-growing country is Qatar at +514 people per day
Fast-shrinking country is Moldova at -106 people per day

Highest life expectancy is in Japan at 82.7 years
Lowest life expectancy is in the Central African Republic at 45.9 years

97/100 new people on the planet are currently being born in developing countries

In the UK, the population is around 62156764 and every hour there are:
- 85 births
- 66 deaths
- +23 immigrants
= Average yearly growth of 0.6%
Average life expectancy is 79.6 years (81.7 for females and 77.4 for males)

It is quite hard to visualise all these statistics regarding population expansion but this interactive graphic produced by the Guardian, based on the UN projections, is quite good, especially when aiming to make comparisons between countries. Whilst talking about the Guardian and the resources they offer, they are very good at reporting on development and environmental issues and so checking up on that ever so often would be a good way to keep up with your independent reading, or if you are likely to forget to check you can like the facebook pages for both. However, if the thought of reading lots doesn't really excite you much then they also produce podcasts which are not too long and quite interesting to listen to - I find some of them quite good for helping me form opinions on this human geography stuff - here is the link to a recent podcast on population growth.

Whats next? Will people numbers stop rising?
The global population is expected to continue to increase during the course of this century, reaching 10 billion by 2083 - follow the link above to see a clip that illustrates this quite well. However, the rate of this growth is expected to slow in comparison to the rapid rate of exapnsion witness over the last 100 years. Little of this growth is happening in countries such as the UK, who are expected over coming years to see a drastic reduction in growth with many possibly experiencing negative growth. Instead, the growth is occuring in the developing world - with Asia presently experiencing most growth although this is soon likely to switch to Africa. We have recently placed quite a bit of focus on to the issues of ageing populations and so it is easy to forget that the world's population is actually quite young, with 43% under 25 (this constitutes 60% of the population across developing countries).

I have been struggling to know what excatly to write but the idea of writing a letter to the 7 billionth person caught my eye so I thought I would give it a try.......

Dear 7 billionth person,

First up, welcome to the world! We havent really been looking after Earth that well and unless we start to change our attitude then the future does not really look that bright......

I am trying really hard not to start on a negative but I have to admit its not easy. 7 billion people on the planet - I doubt if you said that 50 years ago anyone would have believed you, especially in the given timescale. 1 billion people added to the planet in 12 years is crazy and worryingly, for a while atleast, the rate of population expansion could continue to accelerate before it begins to slow down - I would love to know what Thomas Malthus would think about this all if he was still alive today. Anyway, whilst its easy to focus on all the doom and gloom that the future may hold, I think that this historic moment in time warrants us all to sit back and reflect, reflect on the progress made my mankind over the past few centuries. As a race we have come so far and the fact that I can stand here today and say that the global population has reached 7 billion is real testament to the great thinkers of past generations who have solved so many of the problems society has face. Yes, we have made some huge mistakes in the past, and prevail to do so, but enough of us have learnt from this to allow for progress to be made. If you are born into a developed country (although this is unlikely considering 97/100 babies are born in developing countries) you will have access to all the simply remarkable scientific discoveries and technological advancements that have been made and therefore we be able to experience the best that we have so far achieved. If you are fortunate enough to be granted this luxury, please don't be ignorant to the fact, like so many, that the world is full of inequality, poverty is rife and suffering is an unnerving norm for so many. Suffering extends to the environment we inhabit and there is no hiding the fact our current status has been built on unsustainable foundations whilst we continually threaten our world in an unacceptable and, possibly, unforgivable way.....

Perhaps, its good that the UN have decided not to name the 7 billionth inhabitant of Earth as I feel a lot of responsiblilty would have been placed on you. Instead I think the number and the idea itself that there are 7 billion people on planet Earth should be enough (hopefully!) to shock people into changing - if we don't change (and soon!) then the thousands of children born each day are only going to inherit problems, problems generated by our ignorance and arrogance. Unification is what is required as we all need to act together if our efforts are to have the desired effect. Of course, politcans and public figures leading the way will help but we need to want to change for ourselves and the good of mankind. Hopefully the symbolic nature of your existance should catalyses the reaction needed to bring about required change but we are, as a global community, quite unpredictable and do some strange things, our persistant abuse of the Earth's finite resources even though we are fully aware of the consequences just one example.

You symoblise perfectly the issue of over-population, an issue that needs to be addressed, especially as we seem intent on continuing the unsustainable lifestyles a significant amount of us lead. This problem is slightly trickier to solve than environmental issues, to some extent, as why should we have the right to dictate how many children a couple can have. Its one that, until recently, has not been publicised enough across the world and is an issue that will only get worse before it gets better. Whilst I understand the theory behind possible solutions to this issue I am not confident enough to offer a solution, as to most of the problems this world faces, but I live in hope that one day someone will and we will all listen. When that day will be, who knows, but if current trends continue it is likely to be the time at which it is almost too late. Sounds a little skeptical I know but that seems to be the way the world works these days..... we fail to change until our bank accounts feel the impacts!

Advice I can give you...... well I cannot really offer you much in the way of life advice apart from enjoy it, make the most of any access you can get to education (it really is the key to the future), be yourself, help others to the best of your ability and strive to make a difference. Don't live in the past but don't ignore it, learn from the mistakes some have made. Adaptablity is going to be the key in the future, we have messed with systems we are yet to fully understand and thus the consequences are unknown, so we have to be prepared to adapt to the coming changes and make comprimises with the environment we live in. Whatever you do, just don't lose hope with the human race, unpredictability can work both ways and hope is all that some have. It is easy to look at the future and give up but we have always found ways in the past, and hope in the future is the only way forward. If you want to really do something with your life when you are older, and be able to offer solutions to the problems our and future generations face, then become a scientist/politican. This world needs another great thinker, someone who is willing to take the risk of looking far outside the box and take a chance on their gut feelings. Whilst we currently have many great scientists who are making advancements towards understanding the impacts of anthropogenic forcing, we are in desperate need of someone who can understand this knowledge, convey it to the wider audience in a way that will grap their attention and demand their support. We need someone that can unite the world, which I realise sounds strange considering we all pretty much share the same common goal and are more connected to each other than even before. I fear that, if we are not carefull, the resource war, which could be immentent, will be catastrophic and leave the world in an even worse state than before. This resource war, at present, may remain a theory held by many but I believe we will all learn to fear the idea, especially when the unnerving probability of it occuring not too far in the future becomes public knowledge - a war that could easily violently erupt within our lifetimes.

The symbol you form could start to unite the world and make us reflect, with the words 7 billion, I am sure, spoken far more than 7 billion times tomorrow. Its key we allow this milestone passing to have some form of resonance so in years time we can identify this date as a key turning point in the history of mankind.....

......the day humanity decided to stop, think, reflect and ultimately change

Well I live in hope! Good luck in the future, I wish you all the best in life and what you decide to make of it.

Vicki

Writing that I harder than I thought it would be and I have perhaps been slightly skeptical (poor kid!). What would you say to the 7 billionth inhabitant on Earth, any advice or warnings you would give them?

What should be the top environmental priority for the next 40 years?

2011-10-19T01:52:00.000-07:00

Last week, in London, some of the world's experts in environmental change and challenges gathered, as part of Earthwatch, to discuss what aspect of environmental change should be our priority for the next 40 years. So, what factors came up during the discussion...........

Education and Population:

Since the beginning of the industrial revolution some 250 years ago, we have changed the character of the Earth; hence the increasing use among geologists of the term Anthropocene to follow the Holocene epoch. Although a complex mix of factors are responsible for such changes, population growth is without a doubt the most dominant - and continues to be. The human population rose from around one million 12,000 years ago to around one billion 250 years ago. Since then there has been an extraordinary acceleration from 2 billion in 1930 to 6 billion at the end of the century and now approaching 7 billion this month, with projections suggesting a further rise (albeit at a slower rate) to 9 billion by 2045 - scary thought if ask me!!! As hopefully you have gathered from the AS Population module and our current Development A2 module, education is critical if we hope to solve the issue of population growth and thereby dilute the effect of the appending impacts - especially education of women ( = the Girl Effect) as where emancipation of women is achieved, CBR drastically drops, as seen in most industralised countries where the fertility rate is below replacement level fertility. However, in reflection, this does causes problems in its own right - think ageing populations - but, with regards to the environment, is no where near as detrimentally damaging. There are also many other issues such as increasing population density and rapid urbanisation, especially in the developing world, which are all causing global societal problems with secondary economic, political and environmental impacts. To think that global education could attenuated many of these demographic issues is incredibe - if education is the answer, something which is perhaps possible to start to globally implement on the mentioned timescale, should it be our priority for the next 40 years?

Oceans:

I will try and keep this one short and simple as in truth I could probably write a few essays for you on this one! Approximately 70% of the globe is ocean and we are incredibly connected and consequently reliant on it in a multitude of ways. The oceans (although specifically the ocean circulation) are a critical mechanizism in the Earth's heat transfer system, feeds over 25% of our population and, as a result of its close coupling with the atmosphere, absorbs the heat generated by our unhealthy addiction to burning fossil fuels. Although the oceans may look very stable and unchanged over recent decades, they are not, and are increasingly vulnerable to anthropogenic forcing. With more photosynthesis occuring on the sea surface than anywhere else, many consider that the oceans breathe for the planet, with the oceans also being the largest carbon sink. This is all set to change, if our unsustainable environmental usage and consequentially accentuated global climate change continues to happen and once a significant change happens within the oceans (as is already happening with depletion of the oceans fisheries, toxic contamination of the sea by industrial runoff and plastic pollution and acidification etc.) it will pose a great threat to the health of the world's population.

Water:

Water is a resource that many take for granted but it is a resource that we simply cannot survive without. Whilst we cannot live without it, when we are forced to drink that which is not clean it becomes lethal with diarrhoea the biggest killer of children in sub-Saharan Africa - preventable diarrhoea associated with dirty water and poor sanitation kills more children than Aids, malaria and TB combined.Water provokes other societal issues, especially for women and girls who bear the burden in developing countries of walking for miles in search of water whilst dirty water, poor sanitation and hygiene undermines maternal and child health and nutrition. This has knock on impacts on education, with 443 million schools lost due to water-related diseases, as girls, especially, are needed to find water thus cannot attend school. The World Health Organisation estimates that every $1 invested in water generates $8 in wider economic benefits. All of the above, are linked to water as a drinking resource, but it has wider uses to, in industry and agriculture. Agriculture is reliant on water supplies, with 70% of the globally available freshwater used for agriculture, making livelihoods even more reliant on water what with droughts and famines going hand in hand. It is a critical ingredient for industry - almost every manufacturing process needs water - whilst, it's intertwined with energy and not just through hydropower but thermal power stations need water for cooling and for the steam needed to turn turbines.

Energy:

I am guessing that this one is quite obvious - we humans are different to other species on Earth as not only do we gain energy from the things we eat but also from things that we don't eat. Our energy usage throughout our history has changed, as both a consequence of our development and as a factor allowing for our development. Currently, the issue of generating energy sustainably is a huge issue for the global community, with climate change accelerated by our insatiable hunger for burning fossil fuels, a desire that is only likely to increase as the global population continues to grow and countries continue to reach higher levels of development.

Food security:

With water security and supplies under threat, whilst the population continues to expand, the challenge of feeding the world is a huge! This challenge is not going to be easy with our oil-reliant food system, our environment under stress from global climate change, distruption to water supplies and soil degradation/loss, weakening overturning in oceans, biodiversity loss, land use competition with people and animals needing space to live, space needed to grow food and people starting to utilise fertile land for energy production. Perhaps one of the greatest challenges is changing our attiutde towards food and waste as if every country fed its population to the extent that we do in the UK or the USA, we would need several planets just to grow food, with estimates that 40% of what is fit to eat we waste. If we have to feed 9 billion people by 2045 we cannot continue in the way that we are - especially if you factor in the likely future changes to agriculture patterns and productivity as a result of global climate change.

What do I think? Well, I think that just the above mentioned are cause for concern and there are other factors that I am shocked did not get on the list. We place a lot of focus on how oil fuels fighting and whilst it cannot be argued that it doesn't, I think greater focus should be placed on possible/likely future fighting over resources that are essential to our survival - primarily water and food. If we are prepared to start wars over oil what would countries be prepared to do when the resource we are all after is one intrinsic our survival. This is worthy of a few blog posts on its own but I am reading a really interesting, if not slightly worrying, book at the moment called Climate Wars which covers this - a book review will be on its ways shortly, once I have finished reading it, but it is definetly worth a read for any Geographer! Anyway, back to the question, to be honest, I feel that all these factors (and many many more) are so closely interlinked that we cannot hope to untangle them and thus it is crucial that instead of trying to prioritise them we spend the time discussing how to prevent worse case scenairo's from occuring by developing mitigation techniques whilst also ways in which society can adapt to the inevitable consequences of the damage already caused by humankind. So, I suppose what I am trying to say is that I believe we need a more holistic approach to environmental change rather than trying to prioritise different aspects.

Anyway, the afore mentioned are the factors covered during Earthwatch, followed by my view for the need for a holistic approach but what do you think should be the top environmental priority for the next 40 years? Would you choose one of the above or do you think something is missing from the list? Let me know what you think!

I am a bit reluctant to tell you which of the above factors was voted to be the greatest environmental challenge and thus should be our priority over the next 40 years but I am guessing I probably should tell you and anyway, hopefully, by now you will have formed your own opinion. The chosen factor was Population and Education with the agruement for the desperate requirement to address expotential population growth and providing education for all, viewed as the most compelling. The speech given by Sir Crispin Tickell, on this topic, can be replayed here - do you agree with the factor chosen?

Geography Picture of the Week - Kerala churches rewarding big families

2011-10-07T12:31:00.000-07:00

I realise that this week's Geography Picture of the Week post is not particularly centred one specific picture but I just read this story online and thought that it may be of some interest and, as an added bonus, it is related to human geography and links can be made to our current module.....

Hindu groups have said the two child policy should be imposed as
there are limited resources

It seems like ages ago that we studied the AS population module but do you remember that really interesting case study of Kerala, in India, that we learnt about. Well I am guessing that it is probably quite a good case study to know a little bit about for this current module - here is the basics incase you have forgotton.......

KERALA :- Kerala is a really good case study to know about as it is an anomally to the general pattern between population and development indicators in LDC's/MDC's and it also demonstrates the spatial differences within countries themselves.

Kerala is India's longest lived, healthiest, most gender-equitable and most literate region with one of the best education systems. The state's basic human development indices are roughly equivalent to those in the developed world and the state is substantially more environmentally sustainable than many of the countries in Europe and North America. A survey conducted in 2005 also concluded that Kerala was the least corrupt state in India. Although Kerala is a poor state with a GDP of around $11000, it has very good demographic indicators........
- Population = 31.8 million
- Life expectancy = 73.3 years
- IMR = 20/1000
- Literacy rate = 96.6%
- CBR = 14/1000
- CDR = 6.4/1000
- TFR = 1.7
WHY? 90% of the people own the land they live on, and each family can only have a maximum of 8 hectares. In 1957 a communist government was elected to power and fair price shops and ration cards were introduced to ensure that everyone could afford to eat. This government has a strong commitment to female education and a participatory democracy in which; every 10 years, 10% of the population are invited to meeting to express their views and help make decisions on how to take Kerala forward.

So, what is happening in Kerala at the moment that is so interesting. Well, several Christian parishes, Catholics and Muslim groups in this developed state have started to offer incentives to couples who have more children, with one church reportedly offering 10,000 rupees ($200) for a couple's fifth child. Now in a country with a huge population that is only projected to continue to grow, passing that of China's by 2030 whilst having massive problems with water security which are only likely to worsen as a result of global climate change and with sea level threatening to displace millions; to me this seems like a really strange idea - trust me after spending 10 minutes in an Indian city you will fully appreciate why the last thing this country needs is more people!

The move by local churches comes after a report submitted to Kerala's chief minister proposed imposing a strict two-child policy. So, why excatly are the churches feeling the need to encourage couples to have more children? Some feel it is because the church groups are concerned about the dwindling numbers of Christians in the region; with the lastest censensus showing numbers are in steady decline and risk slipping below 18%. This is probably not really an excuse to pay people to have more children in a country that greatly struggles to provide for its already huge population. If you think back to when we learnt about population policies, you will probably remember all the disadvantages and negatives of the Chinese 'one child policy and many of the same opinions are being aired in Kerala by religious groups, prominetly the view that it is solely a personal decision on how many children a couple should have and consequently the church feels that any finanical punishments placed on couples for having more than two children should not prevent them from doing so and that the ruling encroaches upon the right to religious freedom. These rewards have not be announced by the church statewide yet but many individual parishes are choosing to other incentives in some form, including free treatment and the parish run hospitals.

Although to many families these incentives will look rather appealing the punishments recently recommended by the panel for the Commission of Rights and Welfare of Women and Children, which include 3 months in prision or a 10,000 rupee fine for any father expecting his third child, are probably harsh enough to put many off.

The Hindu United Front, who strongly support the introduction of this policy, believe that "the two-child norm should be strictly enforced in India as we have limited resources to share among us"and they are definetly right about the country having limited resources when considering its population size!

Let me know what you think! Should a population policy be enforced in India? Does its forever increasing population help or hinder its development?

Pathway to African development...

2011-10-02T11:39:00.000-07:00

Africa are visibly the least developed continent on the globe and, collectively with regards to development ( = the process of social and economic advancements that leads to improvements in peoples quality of life and general wellbeing), are far behind Europe, the forever growing Asia and rapidly developing South America. Groups of countries (not necessarily confined to continents) have developed differently. The Rostow Model of Development represents quite well the stages taken by Europe and the other most developed countries in the world, all of which focused on developing agriculture and then implementing import substitution. On the other hand, the Four Asian Tigers exploited the growing materlistic attitude in the west to allow for a export-driven model of industralisation, and thus development, to be followed. China has been the most recemt recipient of large scale TNC investment due to its abundant and cheap work force and, combined with the resources it has to offer (especially rare earth metals) has continued to grow at, arguably, a worrying rate. South American nations have grouped together, favouring preferential trade, which has worked out really well for them so far as indicated by the 8% grow experienced for the last 5 years. All these groups of countries have adopted fundamentally different paths to the same end goal, some with more success and speed than others.

So, if Africa are to develop, how do you think they will achieve it? Will they follow the path taken by Europe, would it be easier for them to try and replicate the journey undertaken by the Four Asian Tigers, are they likely to recieve sufficient FDI and interest from TNCs to provoke cumulative causation or should they copy what South America are trying (and arguably succeeding ) to do?

I realise that this is a really big, open ended question and is one that I am probably never going to get a definite answer to until it actually happens (thus something that is probably going to annoy/frustrate me for a while - I am still trying to figure out what a stage 6 of the DTM would look like!!!) but I have been trying to do a bit of reading on the subject and get some peoples opinions - let me know if you have any thoughts!

Normally when I ask questions, especially ones like this, I get some rather strange looks and asked why excatly do I want to know the answer or why can't I just accept things and not think to much. So, I didn't really get that far on my quest to find out what people think. However, Millie is often more than willing to entertain my inquisitive nature and consequent questions, so what did she think about future African development.......

"My personal opinion is that they will need to find a way that takes the lessons from previous efforts at development and personalises it to the unique challenges of Africa. I feel that we need to take into account that the world has changed since we developed, and since the Asian Tiger Policy, and that currently lessons could be learnt from the preferential trade taking place in South America which has seen 8% growth for the last 5 years, and that this could be more easily replicated in Africa. The problem will be the complicating factor of peace, in that the cultural differences that are now inherent in many African nations have not been seen to such a degree in other developing countries, and of course the environment is unique to Africa, and we cannot attempt to understand what all this means for the development process without lengthy consultation, and some fairly significant independence for African nations to identify their best option."

Do you agree? I think that I am inclined to agree with some of the things Millie said but perhaps not all and to be honest the more I think about it, the more questions I have!

I read this the other day; 'Africa looks to learn from east Asia's development experiences'; and it presents quite an interesting idea. Although it doesn't touch on South American development as a model for Africa, it explains why countries like Kenya and Ethiopia have started to look at how countries like China have developed/developing and are trying to find ways to adapt that policy to conditions in Africa as a way of developing. It is debateable whether this is as a direct result of the forever increasing Chinese investment across Africa due to the availabilty and oppurtunity to exploit and utilise the abundant raw materials in this money-poor resource-rich continent but there is no right or wrong way to develop.

So, what do I think....... well for a while now I have been struggling to get my head around the idea of a world existing where development is equal amongst all countries and in reflection I think that the main reason for this is because I have taken a 'one-size fits all' approach and attitude to development - an attitude than I immediately, without thinking, presumed would also apply to future African development. With regards to this idea, I felt that perhaps we could never live in a world with equal development as, probably a bit skeptically, I viewed exploitation of a resource (whether that be people, environment, markets etc) as intrinsic to the way in which we developed and that in the present day, exploitation of the same amplitude, especially of people, was incredibly unlikely to happen. I have started to realise that the 'one-size fits all' approach to development is not suitable, appropriate or indeed helpful when trying to determine the future of this continual process and thus is a dangerous trap to fall into - one that I am guilty of tumbling into. Also, remembering that development is in fact a continual process means that, as time passes and the world changes, development will accorrdingly evole with regards to how it occurs, timescales and possibly even how we view it. Instead, I now understand the importance of locality-specific solutions to the development problem as no two locations are the same and, for example, no matter how long you try you could not get any African nation to fit the Rostow Model of Development perfectly. Therefore I agree with Millie when she said that instead of trying to determine which model of development Africa could mirror, it should be about learning lessons from the differing journeys taken in the past. The world is a changed place and previous paths are no longer applicable in the contemporary world that faces numerous different challenges, challenges that are not evenly distributed around the globe. No one can dispute that Africa is a troubled continent and whilst, idealistically, preferential trade like that used in South America could work, at present I am struggling to see how it would perform in reality due to the inherent cultural differences and absence of lasting peace. Peace is arguably the largest complicating factor that is preventing development (although by no means the only obstacle just perhaps the most prevalent in the present day that could be remedied), a factor sadly linked to European colonialism, and this needs to be achieved before Africa is ready to develop. I think this is in actual fact the biggest question with reference to development in Africa..... Are they actually ready to develop? And, if not, when will they be? The conditions in Africa are unique and not found anywhere else on the globe and the shear number of interconnected, complicated, entangled issues preventing and stunting development are making it so difficult to solve - not aided by the fact that, like Millie said, we cannot even start to pretend to understand African development without lengthy consultation. Thus I believe that it is potentially detrimental for African nations to look at models of development with more than the purpose of trying to learn from the mistakes and successes made by countries who have embarked on the journey of development. Thus, independence is key...... forcing a country to develop in a certain way is not going work or be sustainable and neither is allowing them to build development upon the foundations of dependency, whether that be on one resource, another country or a certain model of development. It is going to be a huge step for African nations to take full independence and be focused and stable enough to identify their best option, without being influenced by extrinsic factors. Whilst this independence is key, so will be the guidance and support of other countries to allow them to do this and offering a supporting hand on the way. Development for African nations is not going to be easy, they have their history, the present and the future stacked up against them but development is going to be a necessity if they hope to be able to adapt to and mitigate the appending impacts of global climate change which, as the science suggests, they will experience the full force of.

Let me know what you think - remember there is no right or wrong way for Africa to develop........

Globalisation: Walmart video notes plus notes from todays lesson

2011-09-30T14:30:00.000-07:00

Okay, so a little birdy told me that apparently I was typing up the notes that I took from the Walmart documentary that we watched in Geography lessons this week, so here goes - I must warn you though, my notes were not that great as I am not that good at concentrating on films so if you have more to add then feel free! I am also going to add in some of the things we covered in my lesson today (leaving out all the stuff about cooking and hotels in Iceland, whales and Facebook that is!)......

Here is the full film incase any of you missed it, on

want to check a few facts...

TNCs are often known as the agents of globalisation as they enable (and often provoke) the large-scale movement of people, goods, capital, services and markets around the globe thus accelerating the process of globalisation which is the increasing interconnectedness of global markets, politics and culture, due to the powerful influence they have on both local economies and international relations.
The presence of TNCs often provokes cumulative causation in the developing countries that they occupy. Therefore, if developing countries are able to attract TNCs, in some cases, in the long run, it can aid and accelerate development.

HOWEVER, in some cases the presence of TNCs does not benefit everyone......

TNCs like Walmart, created in 1962, originally based in the USA and are the largest non-oil based TNC, do not source their goods from within the country but from countries like China. There are many reasons for TNCs to locate to other countries and this includes:

- To escape trade tariffs; this seems to effect the EU market the most with TNCs often choosing to produce goods within Europe to escape the expensive tariffs that would otherwise be placed on trade.
- In an attempt to see the lowest cost location for production facilities; this is often driven by the search for the cheapest possible labour hence why many production facilities are currently based in Asia as it offers a large, available, accessible and cheap labour force in countries with little enforcement of health and safety regulations and workers rights such as those present in Europe.
- Wanting to find an easier more effective way to reach into foriegn markets; this often provokes movement by TNCs as overseas developments do not just increase sales but they can also help to reduce the unit costs of each item produced or sold worldwide.
- Arguably the intial reason for TNCs to develop operation overseas is the fact that it enables them to exploit and effectively utilise the minerals and resources that they need.

Walmart have based the vast majority of their production facilities in China, where they pay workers less than $3 per week, make them work 7 days a week and, due to the abundance of workers can manage to keep production going practically 24/7. The workers in the film emphasised the poor worker conditions, the way in which they are tied in to continued work for Wal-Mart whom to some extent dictate things like where they live and work long hours for poor wages. Bangladesh is another country where Walmart have developed production facilities and it is estimated that they employ 189,000 female workers who have to put up with inhuman working conditions. Consequently, something that can be assembled for $0.18 is retailed for atleast $14.96 in the USA. This maximises profits for the company and with Walmart exporting $18 billion worth of goods from China to American stores in 2004 alone, it is no wonder that so many TNCs are attracted to this part of the world.

Walmart employs 2.1 million people around the world, including 1.4 million in the USA, in more that 9,600 retail units operating across 28 countries (4,400 of these retail units located in the USA) with Walmart estimating within which they serve customers 200 million times per week. The employers interviewed for the documentary we watch very strongly gave the impression that people are not happy with the way in which Walmart treats its employee's as they fail to hire enough staff, expect people to work more than their set hours, fail to pay sufficiently and offer benefits (with special regards to the health insurance - remember this is a huge problem in society in America). The health insurance issue came across as a real sticking point with it believed that the cost is shifted onto the government to be paid for by taxpayers at an estimated cost of $157,000,000.00 in America!!! Much of this poor treatment has been blamed on the managers who are greatly against unions. Walmart currently faces (when the film was produced, not 100% when this was) lawsuits in 31 states across America for unfair treatment of workers, exploitation of illegal immigrants and discrimination against women. From an environmental persepective, they have been fined in the past and continue to be for 'Environmental Violations' like, for example, in Texas in 2001 when they were fined $10.1 million for water contaimination. This has lead many to believe that Walmart clearly cares more about its property than the people and the environment; a belief furthered by the number of fatal/serious, and arguably avoidable, crimes that have occured in their premises.

2 minute review of the main points coverd in the film

TNCs are also not very popular with local businesses in the areas that they decide to develop as small, family owned local businesses cannot compete with the low prices that Walmart are able to offer as consequence of low labour and production costs. Going a little off track but I think it is quite interesting to think about what is going to happen as oil reserves continue to dwindle and it becomes increasingly difficult and less finanically viable to transport goods across the globe. How are TNCs going to cope then? Could we see a shift back to smaller, local businesses that can, athlough at a higher cost, source and produce goods locally? If this shift was to occur, how detrimental would it be to the developing countries and NICs?

Anyway, the criticisms for Walmart do not stop there! The wages recieved by the average employee compared to that of the companies CEO has recieved much attention with the CEO's hourly rate believed to exceed the yearly income of a new employee. Last year it is estimated that the CEO earned $35 million which apparently translates to $16, 826.92 an hour whilst the average employee starts out at $8.75 per hour which works out as $13, 650. Despite this, and the fact that in the last financial year, Walmart reached net sales greater that $260 billion; the Walton family only donated 1% of their wealth to charity. Workers collectively, and voluntarily, donated $5 million to a hurricane recovery effort a few years back (again whenever the film was made) whilst the Walton family only donated $6000. In contrast, that provided $3.2 million in political support in 2004 whilst recieving a $91,500 per tax break.

The film gave the clear impression that Walmart is not good news for towns/communities and consequently some have started to try and resist Walmart from taking over - something which is increasingly difficult as many TNCs are larger in relation to the income of the coutries in which they are located, meaning that it is very hard for governments to enforce national laws on them. Inglewood, in 2004, was the first example of a town who refused and then won their battle to prevent Walmart from developing in the town and since then many more communties have successfully fought against this huge TNC.

This is clearly all the negative stuff so are their any benefits to TNC presence and are their any 'winners' apart from company owners, share holders (and perhaps politicians)?

Well, generally speaking, governments actually normally want investment from TNCs as they generate jobs and incomes, train local workers in new and transferable skills, bring new technology and the taxes that they pay can be important in stimulating economic development via cumulative causation. TNCs and the appending Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has, in some cases for both developed and developing countries, become so crucial for their economies that they are willing to compete against one another for their investment - a competition that often involves incentives such as tax breaks, pledges of governmental assistance and improved infrastructure. Unfortunately, in extreme cases, this can also involve the introduction of even lower wages and a relaxation on controls over wages/workers rights. On the other hand, TNC presence in the working sector can intiate a standardisation in working conditons and environmental laws etc. on par with those in operation in the developed world where the consumers are located. As a result, in the long term, developing countries who are able to attract TNCs can be considered as winners as their presence kick starts cumulative causation thus accelerating development. At this stage it is, perhaps, important to remember that every TNC is different and so should really be considered seperately to others, with regards to discussing positives and negatives of their occupation of countries, and that the documentary we watched focused on the negative side of Walmarts role in American society, politics and economy and that, as in every case, there are also a few benefits.

Processes of Globalisation

2011-09-28T13:22:00.000-07:00

I am guessing that you have all probably done a substantial amount of reading regarding factors affecting development, especially colonialism, over the last week or so, thus I thought I would skip out that bit and instead focus on globalisation, starting at the very beginning.....

Globalisation = increasing interconnectivity of global markets, politics and cultures

Factors that have allowed Globalisation to occur:

1) One of the most important factors that has allowed globalisation to occur, and at arguably such a rapid rate, is the development of ICT, with particular reference to the internet, as its development has permitted cheap, reliable and almost instantaneous communications between all parts of the world (in theory!). This new found ability to share information, transfer capital and marketing at such a quick speed has been essential for globalisation and is something that I think many of us take for granted nowadays. Going slightly off topic but just think how much easier are lives are thanks to the internet and telecommunications, even our education and the way we learn has been greatly improved - if you ask your parents etc I doubt that they would have ever predicted that we could be sat at home, on computers, listening to our geography teacher discuss LDCs and the Millenium Development Goals at 5:30pm on a Tuesday evening!!!

2)Anyway, this flow of information has also been supported by improvements in transport (of both people and goods) - I am guessing a few synoptic links (you know, those things that our essays are meant to be full of now to demonstrate we 'think like geographers'!) could be made to the AS Energy module here.... The increased mobility we now have has made transportation more efficient and cheaper with such developments including:
- Increased aircraft size, introduction of budget airlines, development of airfreight companies and intergrated air movement networks
- Container revolution in the 1960s along with standardisation which allowed containerisation to become so efficient and cost effective
- new computerised logistics systems for all forms of transport
high-speed rail networks and extension of railway networks
- better and more direct road links
With this ability to move goods cheaply and quickly seeming to be intrinsic to globalisation, how is it going to be affected when oil reserves run out or when it no longer exists as a commerically viable resource. I am sure you will remember the debate that exists over whether or not we have reached peak oil and if not, how long will it be before we reach this point? There, at present, exists no other resource capable of filling the void oil will leave and so can globalisation, as we know it, exist in the future?
Although, this movement of goods has been crucial, the movement of people has been equally so and although some of the above have increased our mobility, there are some other factors more specifically linked to the movement of populations....

- tourism has played a huge role in getting people, therefore cultures, moving around the globe
- increase in migration which has seen unskilled workers, who are increasingly forced to migrate illegally as richer countries try to protect their populations from an influx of workers who would be willing to accept lower wages and poorer working conditions
- brian drain/gain

3) With both people and goods moving, services and marketing have began to move. The easiest example to see this in is probably the spreading of the advertising industry which has been greatly utilised by TNCs and increased foreign direct investment.

Transnational Corporation (TNC)/Multi-national Corporation (MNC) = at its simplest level, this is a corporation that has prodcution establishments or delivers services in atleast two countries. Interestingly, or perhaps even worryingly, some TNCs have grown so large that they have budgets that exceed those of many countries in which they operate.

It is becoming more common for TNCs to market products in a way which ensures the same campaign can be used across the globe as part of an international marketing strategy. The advantages for TNCs of such international stragegies include:

- the cost of research and development of products can be spread across many more sales, reducing unit costs and increasing profits
- brand loyalty can be encouraged as people move from one country to another
- manufacturing can move to countries and regions where production costs (particularly wages) are cheaper without needing to change the basic product which was internationalised.

TNCs are seen as the agents of globalisation and without them, globalisation would struggle to exist but is their presence always a good thing.......well that documentary we watched today regarding Wal-Mart cleary suggests not. So, does this mean that globalisation is the way to develop or is globalisation detrimental to development? Have a think about it, blog post is on its way!

Geography Picture of the Week - Highest resolution global map of ocean surface salinity

2011-09-23T13:41:00.000-07:00

First up, the most observant of you will notice that I have changed my 'Geography Picture of the Day' to 'Geography Picture of the Week' as, in reflection, it was always high unlikely that I would post a picture everyday! Instead, hopefully, I will be more likely to post one weekly and although I am guessing that most will be linked to physical geography, I will try and find some relevant to our current human module........

So, what is my Geography Picture of the Week this week???

I apologise to any of you who are getting fed up with oceanography-related posts (my EPQ will be over very soon so hopefully I won't be so tempted to write about oceanography stuff all the time when I should really be writing about Development and Globalisation!) but I really couldn't resist posting this one!!!

The above image was released by NASA and represents the one of the first and high resolution global map of ocean surface salinity made, using data acquired by the Aquarius/SAC-D satellite, launched in June this year with the map itself only incorporating the first 2 and 1/2 weeks of data since Aquarius became operational on the 25th August. Scientists have been able to measure ocean salinity for decades by lowering instruments from ships or by deploying robotic floats, but the technology to gather data from orbit is a recent innovation.

The generation of this map has been long anticpated by oceanographers and meterologists so I am guessing there are a few very happy scientists around the world at the moment! If you have followed any of my highly unorganised posts on oceanography you might be able to appreciate why........

Well, our ability to map and thus determine salinity (basically the 'saltiness') will improve our understanding of ocean circulation, the risks of future alterations to it and also an understanding of a few key climatic processes (note that the oceans and atmospheres are incredibly closely coupled with, in simple terms, the oceans provided the memory for the climatic signals generated in the atmosphere).

So, what excatly does this map show? Well, the red and yellow colours represent areas of high salinity with blues and purples denoting those with low salinity and black showing areas with no data(note no data retrival on land). The maps clearly shows well-established, large scale features, significantly the major salinity differences between the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans. With the Pacific ocean by far the 'freshest', supporting the absence of deep-water formation sites, and the Atlantic by far the most saline. The salinity of ocean water is intrinsic to ocean circulation, although most precisely thermohalince circulation, which is soley driven by density differences (salty water is denser than less saline waters and so is forced to sink, thereby helping to drive the circulation). Also apparent is the corespondance between areas of lower salinity and rain belts and the areas of high evaporation found in the subtropics (regions of evaporative enrichment). Smaller-scale features are also possible to identify like the freshwater outflow from the Amazon River which acts to dilute immediate Atlantic surface waters.

The goal of the Aquarius mission is to retrieve salinity with a resolution of 0.2 parts per thousand (a concentration change equivalent to about one millilitre of salt in six litres of water). Aquarius carries three high-precision radio receivers that will record the natural microwave emissions coming up off the water's surface; emssions varying with the electrical conductivity of the water - a property directly related to how much dissolved salt it is carrying.

Smos global salinity map

The Nasa-Conae spacecraft is not the first ocean salinity mission in orbit as Europe already have a satellite in operation (Smos) which was launched in 2009, producing the first ever global salinity maps generated from space. The intention is to inter-calibrate and combine the Aquarius and Smos measurements as, together,these spacecraft are now acquiring volumes of salinity data that dwarf all the information ever gathered in this field of study.

ENSO: a kind of synopsis

2011-09-15T12:53:00.000-07:00

It looks like we are going to be doing a lot of purely Human Geography for a while and so, as well as writing a post about what I learnt about development this week I thought I would write a post on ENSO, a purely physical topic, that, if I am honest, really really fascinates me but is unfortunately no longer on the A-level syllabus. Just incase you don't manage to get to the bottom of this post, I am planning on writing up atleast one detailed case study that could be used in our essays (sorry to remind you all!) and so I am looking for some suggestions on which one to do - I have a few ideas but any suggestions would be greatly appreciated!

So, anyway, this one is for all you Physical Geographers out there!

What excatly is the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?
The term 'El Nino' has been applied, in the past, to somewhat different oceanographic events in the tropical Pacific but, nowadays, is commonly used to describe the anomalous warming of the sea-surface temperatures (SST) that occurs every few years in that region, although typically focused in east-central equatorial Pacific. El Nino events last several months and are associated with widespread changes in the climate system (dominating climatic flucuations observed on interannual timescales). These climatic changes have huge socio-economic impacts on countries, affecting agriculture, infrastructure, health, energy and, of course, development.

What is La Nina and the ENSO cycle?
La Nina is the term used to describe episodes of cooler than normal SST in the tropical Pacific (easiest way to think of it is the opposite of El Nino). The Southern Oscillation bit of ENSO is the term used for the atmospheric changes that occur in the tropical Pacific and accompany El Nino and La Nina events. Both events involve strong interactions between the oceans and atmosphere and tend to alternate (although not always the case) and this whole process is referred to as ENSO cycle. The ENSO cycle is not regular with various sizes and durations in both events but ENSO is a natural phenomenon and proxy evidence (principally from coral growth rate measurements) suggests ENSO has existed for thousands of years.

What causes El Nino?
As simply as I can put it, the ENSO cycle is the consequence of slow acting feedbacks in the ocean-atmosphere system, helped by strong air-sea interactions in the tropics that permit long-lived long-range connections to operate in the system.

Normally, the equatorial Pacific ocean has a pool of relatively warm water in the upper ocean to the west and a shallower layer of relatively cool water in the east; easterly surface winds are intrinsic to the maintainance of this balance. The first few tens of metres of oceans are well-mixed and lie above a thin thermocline, with cold water below.

The exact trigger of El Nino events is still debated and, due to a lack of observations, not a great deal can really be said about them with much certainity.There are a few possbile triggers though - Raised SSTs in central/east Pacific can be caused either through the action of westerly windbursts (short-lived storm-like events in West Pacific), or the gradual development of the ocean waveguide which moves the thermocline. Increased SST influences the atmospheric winds which, in turn, influence the upper ocean and the thermocline such that the SST is further increased = positive feedback. Only when the conditions are favourable will this feedback generate an El Nino event where you get increased SSTs, reduced easterly winds and a 'flatter' (for want of a better word) thermocline across east to west Pacific.

La Nina

El Nino events then also cause gradual changes throughout the tropical Pacific ocan which develop in such a way that the SST across the equator slowly returns to normal, thus ending this event. However, the system normally overshoots and the feedbacks act to amplify small cooler anomalies, initiating a La Nina - as said before, it is basically the opposite with strengthened easterly winds and a increase in thermocline gradient. As this process is self-limiting the cycle continues....

What are the meteorological consequences?

Global impacts of El Nino

If you have managed to stick with this to this point, this is probably the bit that will interest you the most - bringing in a bit of Human Geography you could even link this to the development essay as ENSO has, arguably, hindered development in countries across the world!

During El Nino events changes in SST, alterations to atmospheric circulation, temperature and precipitation occur; with these alterations, via atmospheric dynamics, extending far beyond the tropical Pacific region. As the impacts vary with location, it is practically impossible to identify a general pattern but generally speaking the eastward shift of precipitation in western Pacific tends to provoke huge deficits in the Philippines, Indonesia, north and east Australia, whilst central Pacific experiences increased rainfall.

Global Impacts of La Nina

I was fornutate enough to get to quiz an ENSO researcher at the Met Office, about everything related to ENSO and I saw lots and lots of similar maps to those opposite - one question that instantly came into my mind was why excatly do the maps suggest that ENSO has no impact whatsoever on Europe. Well, in short, the European region is only relatively weakly effects and there is substantial variability in the observed conditions. Therefore, only when you analysis a long historical record of events will you see the impacts. Such analysis suggests that there is a clear late winter response associated with moderate strength El Nino events; with the tendency for cold conditions in northern Europe and mild southern Europe, with an increased precipitation in a wide band across central Europe (accompanied by decreases elsewhere). Due to this though, it is hard to distinguish between the different factors, with El Nino just one, that are capable of generating such climatic anomalies.

What are El Nino 'flavours'?
I had never, ever heard of this idea of El Nino 'flavours' before and my knowledge is limited to what I am about to write (definetly requires a bit of further indepth research on my behalf!) but I thought I would mention it anyway as its quite an interesting idea. This topic has recieved quite a bit of attention in recent years, due to the slightly differing impacts. The 'normal' El Nino witnesses SST warming in eastern and central Pacific, while the 'dateline' or 'modoki' (apparently Japanese roughly translating to 'similar but different') type primarily experiences warming in the central equatorial Pacific. It has been suggested that the main difference is the influence in Atlantic tropical storms, with such storms typically fewer in 'normal' El Nino years, with 'modoki' events not reducing hurricane activity.
So, I think that is probably the basics of ENSO and I think, before I move on to talking about modelling it and how is it measured, I will probably have to write a post on the basics of climate modelling (it will be the real basics as all this modelling stuff is like a totally seperate science which I won't be able to tell anyone about in any great detail - trust me, its tricky stuff!) and, when I get my head around some scientific papers on ENSO the Met Office provided, I will also write a post on extrinsic forcing factors that effect ENSO. Just one last think to leave you with, follow the link to see up to date measurements taken in the Pacific as part of the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean project.

Taken yesterday (14/09/2011)

I am guessing that most are probably aware that we have just come out of a La Nina (cause of flooding earlier this year in Australia etc.) but at the moment scientists are divided over what will happen next as, although SSTs in Nino 3.4 started to rise again, they have since started to fall again - causing a split amongst researchers as to whether we will remain in the 'normal' state or go back into a La Nina (no one really seems to think we are going to go immediately into an El Nino). If you are interested and catch me around college, I have some plots, and ensemble forecasts which illustrate this.

I hope this made some sense (and was interesting), let me know if you didn't quite get everything as I realise that I am not great at explaining things but I am more than happy to try my best to explain it in a more understandable way if necessary. I am quite intrigued by the idea of El Nino 'flavours' and so if anyone knows anything more about it, please let me know!!! Especially things like what dictates whether an El Nino turns out to be of the 'normal' type or 'modiko' type?

There is some development stuff on the way, along with a few book reviews and a post primarily for all the new AS Geographers on 'Flooding, Farming and the Future'. Millie has emphasised the importance of knowing some case studies really well, with reference to development and colonialism, so I thought I would try and write a post on atleast one, sometime over the next few days, so let me know which one you would most like me to write about - its up to you!

Development and Colonialism - places to go if you are struggling for ideas...

2011-09-13T12:10:00.000-07:00

This is only going to be a short post but I thought, seeing as I got the impression that some were perhaps struggling with linking development and colonialism, that I would try and point you in the direction of a few resources that may help you form you own opinions on the topic.

"To what extent are the low levels of development in much of sub-Saharan Africa a result of European colonialism"

First up, I feel the need to clear up a bit of confusion that arised in my lesson on Monday and was a topic of much debate amongst a few in my class. Where is sub-Saharan Africa? So, for those of you who weren't quite sure, its the darker bit with all the labelled countries.....

Blogging!

Millie has started running these online workshop sessions on her blog on Tuesday evenings starting at 5:30pm. The first one was tonight and even if you missed it, like me, I would strongly recommend that you catch up on what she discussed. All you need to do is go along to her blog (if you look at the very end of this page, under the blogs I read bit, there will be a link directly to the relevant post unless she has written something since then!) and just listen to it and follow the text. It was very useful as an overview of the factors we will be expected to cover in our essay, she suggested some good case studies for us to research further, provided some links to places to look to for a basic introduction to colonialism and also covered structuring and essay writing technique for all A2 essays. It is definetly worth catching up on if you missed it - I really could not emphasise this enough!!!

Now I realise that I have not really written many relevant/useful posts about development over the holidays but my head has been filled with lots and lots of oceanography based stuff and pure physical geography and I suppose I have utilised this blog to expel some of my frustration about having to cut much of the wonderful and highly interesting science out of my EPQ - so I apologise, I will get back into the swing of blogging regularly once our lessons really get under way and I will try and write about lots more human geography stuff to balance it all out over the next few weeks as I realise that physical geography is perhaps not everyones favourite thing. Below will be a few links to some posts that are sort of relevant and should hopefully provide some extra knowledge:

Contemporary colonial carve-up??? This post is based on neo-colonialism, which is an issue that I suppose could be mentioned in up coming essay, and some of the impacts (both positive and negative) that it is having on countries at present are incredibly similar to those that colonialism had/has. There are a few references to the 'scramble for Africa' which is an issue that will have to be covered in the essay at some point! There are many other factors that have hindered development but I have mainly focused at the moment on climate....Is there a link between civil conflict and climate patterns? If I am being honest this post was an excuse to talk about a physical topic that really really interests me (ENSO) whilst also covering some human geography stuff and it is very relevant to the essay with a few case studies that could be mentioned. I don't think you really need to understand all the ENSO stuff and specifics of it but just the idea that climate has either helped or hindered development and, in the case of sub-Saharan Africa, greatly hindered it. Climate plays/played a huge role in development and writing this post made me think back to the stuff we have learnt about the DTM and the Rostow Model of Development as for countries to move through the stages of both, therfore to develop, changes in agriculture are one of the first to happen as they help to generate an active and growing economy, reduce CDR by securing food supplies and provide employment etc. and in much of Africa, and other less developed nations, the climate does not allow for this to happen - an issue that can be seen the Horn of Africa at present, UN officially declares a famine in Somalia.

Books and films

I have a few book/film reviews to try and find the time to write over the next few weeks, to add to those that I have already written, and there are loads of great books/films out there to read/watch, based in Africa, that will allow you to gain so much more understanding of this topic.
- Blood River, Tim Butcher I have reviewed this one so follow the link if you want to know more but, in summary, this book is mainly set in DR Congo and is perhaps one of the best books I have read regarding this topic as the detrimental impacts that colonialism has had on this country and the way in which it has hindered development and, agruably, provoked the country to under-develop are very clear to see.
- The same guy has also written another book called Chasing the Devil, On Foot through Africa's Killing Fields which is based in Sierra Leone and Liberia. Again much of the above is covered but I havent got round to writing the review for it yet so the link is to one that I got online.
If I am being honest there are loads and loads of books that would be good if you got the chance to read so I don't think I really need to list them all but basically any book about an African country would give you an insight/understanding it their development - even a book I read for the energy module, The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind, would help you to understand factors effecting development.

I realise that this EPQ is probably taking up a lot of your time and involving a lot of reading so watching some related films may be a good way to ease yourself back into this Geography module and there quite a few out there..... some suggestions are (see links for my reviews along with links to this current module):
- Blood Diamond
- Darfur
- Invictus
- Goodby Bafana
- Cry Freedom
- Constant Gardener
I have yet to watch/ reading something that takes a more positive view to colonialism and development but there are some, which are often easy to forget! All of these are set in African countries and perhaps it is important to remember that other parts of the world were colonised too, with some case studies showing the benefits of colonialim, and so reading/watching stuff about them too could be quite a beneficial think to do.

The afore-mentioned are just a few things that I found really helped me extend my knowledge of the topic over the summer holidays; if you have any suggestions let me know!

Contemporary colonial carve-up???

2011-09-03T15:26:00.000-07:00

It is becoming increasingly common for wealthy countries and corporations to acquire huge expanses of arable land in developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, for use in industrial agriculture. These multi-billion-dollar deals have led to many farmers and families being stripped of the land they have occupied for generations...... Does this echo the 'land grabs' of the colonial era and are there actually any benefits for the local people?

With many African nations already struggling to feed their own
population can they afford to lease out much of their limited
fertile land to other countries so that they can secure food supplies?

In what has been described by the top ranks of the UN as a new neocolonialist trend, land is now frequently changing hands between developing countries and buyers who range from national governments to huge food producers and speculators on the international stock exchanges. Instead of buying, or leasing, this land with the aim to preserve its environmental value the influential organisations appear to only be interested in turning these marginal lands into profit. Critics of this neo-colonialist trend are worried that it parallels the infamous 'scramble for Africa' by colonial powers during the late 19th century; with many of these land acquisitions coated with humanitarian considerations to shroud the fact that they are instigated by cash-rich resource-poor countries who are desperately seeking to secure reliable food supplies and reduce their dependency on the vulnerable global market. These 'land-grabs' seem popular with countries with large populations (e.g China and India) who see 'offshore' food production as the most sustainable and affordable way to support their expanding populations and secure not only food but also water.

Is the increasing need for food and water in the developed world
driving the 'land grabs'?

The majority of the recent land deals have been characterised by long-term leases; most 99 year renewable agreements that effectively hand the land over in perpetuity at a rate that reflects the historical tradition of establishing plantations in European-owned colonies. Despite the clear parallels between these deals and events in Africa during the late 19th century, there are some fundamental differences with, perhaps, the largest being the driving force. Back in the 19th century, the colonial powers were grabbing territory but the contemporary land acquisition is driven by market forces. Many of these deals are being triggered by the search for food security, biofuels and minerals which has been instigated by food and energy price hikes that have occured over the past 5-10 years. The 2007-2008 food price hike was one of the most signficant and recent and many feel that it was this event that has highlighted just how vulnerable food-importing nations are to fluctuations in the global market (seems to have a similar effect as fluctuations in the price of oil). On the other hand, others feel that because the world food production has stabilised at 50% above what we need (when you consider how many people in the world go hungry everyday surely that only emphasises how much the developed world wastes!) that a move to biofuels is the largest driving force. To a certain extent, statistics support this as the World Bank estimates that 21% of the land deals in 2009 were for biofuel production. With the land extremely cheap there is no shortages of investors and, although not neccessarily proven in reality yet, in theory there should be some benefits for the countries leasing the land. Leasing the land should generate more jobs, lead to better and newer technology, improve infrastructure and attract extra tax revenues, whilst the World Bank agrues that it could also 'jump-start' agricultural growth via large-scale farming - all factors that could kick start cummulative causation and help accelerate development. On the other hand, across Africa, rural dwellers, pastoralists and herdsmen have been forced off of the land they have occupied for generations. Although there is disagreement as to the exact amount of land purchased by international organisations, the epicentre of this trend is, without a doubt, located in Africa. In 2009 alone, the World Bank estimates that 70% of the 45 million hectares of land deals were struck over were in Africa. The International Land Coalition suggests that this figure should be much higher. They estimate that 80 million hectares of land was exchanged, with 64% (so around 50 million hectares) being located in Africa.

Although this seems to be focused in Africa, it is occuring elsewhere and here are a few current case studies:

January 2011 - A large Chinese rice and soya producer acquired thousands of hectares of soya beans, wheat and oilseed rape in Argentina's Rio Negro province and then shipped the produce back to China. The same organisation have also been reported to have signed an agreement to develop 200,000 hectares of land in the Phillippine province of Luzon. China has also been granted the rights to grow palm oil on 2.8 million hectares of Congolese land. It has been suggested that China operates 80,400 hectares in Siberia, which it purchased for US$21.4million. With China's rather large population, a forever increasing hunger for energy, lack of water security, lack of fertile land and a climate that hinders agricultural growth it probably does not come as much of a surprise that they are one of the main countries involved in the purchasing/leasing of land in developing countries.
Not 100% sure if this plan is still going ahead but earlier in the year, it was proposed that South African farmers would take over failing state farms in Libya.
Before Sudan split it leased 376,000 hectares of land to Saudi Arabia to grow wheat and rice. Saudi Arabia have also suggested that Saudi businesses groups should take control of 70% of the rice growing regions in Senegal. Leasing land in Sudan has continued, even after it split and prior to the offical split, South Sudan issued leases on 9% of its land.
Qatar leased 20,000 hectares of land for fruit and vegetable cultivation in exchange for funding for a US$2.3billion port in Kenya.
India has invested US$4billion in agriculture, including flower-growing and sugar plantations, in Ethiopia. Again, to most of you, this wont be much of a surprise. India's population is predicted to exceed that of China by 2030, they have even less water security than China, rising sea-levels threaten to claim much land and provoke mass migration from neighbouring Bangladesh and, as they continue to develop, they are consuming more and more energy.
Madagascar are in negotiations with Daewoo Logistics Corporation, negiotations which are believed to have played a significant role in the political conflict that provoked the overthrow of the government in 2009, to lease 1.3 million hectares of land for maize aand palm oil plantations - a figure that is practically half the country's arable land!
Countries such as China and Saudi Arabia have shown lots of interesting in leasing land in Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine and parts of post-Soviet Central Asia. China have been involved in negotiations to lease a million hectares of Kazakhstan farmland for rapeseed and soya production whilst Saudi Arabi are also interested to land there for grain production and cattle raising. It is reported that a British hedge fund, known as Dexion Capital's Global Farming fund, are in the process of trying to raise US$280million to purchase around 1.2million hectares of land in Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukrainie along with parts of Latin America and Australia.

What are the main problems that arise as a result of these land deals between large corporations and developing countries? Firstly, the cultural and capacity gap between investors and the local communities leave huge scope for misunderstandings and this, combined with insufficient laws on land ownership and ensuring meaningful consulations, have lead to issues from the very beginning. Misunderstandings even revolve around payment with, in some cases, locals believing that money given is compensation for the transfer of usage rights only, whereas companies considering the payments as for the transfer of ownership rights. The fact that many of the deals are shrouded in secrecy, with the terms very rarely made public, creates a strong air of suspiscion, one that many consider to be well placed with the vast majority of land being sold or leased for notably less than its real value. Another issue is the displacement of locals who live on the land being leased out to international organisations. Small-scale farmers cannot compete with these big industrial-scale farmers and many are displaced with pastoralists losing their grazing land and rural people losing access to crucial common property resources. Pastoralists are hit quite hard as fences marking the land owned by these international companies restricts their movement to find water during dry seasons (an issue that has resulted in conflict in the extreme cases) and, although those displaced are sometimes reallocated land, the land they are given is of poor quality and some distance from infrastructure, resources and roads. Land grabs are also believed to widen the gender gap in developing countries with women suffering the most due to the land women rely on for collecting wood, medicinal plants, food and water being the most likely areas for external investment. Men are most likely to benefit from the greater accessibility of employment in plantations and processing plants. As well as the obvious impacts for the local people, what about the environment? The huge plantations that are being developed use vast amounts of water and fertile land, with significant interest being given to land along the Nile, where Sudan and Ethopia have, over the years, successfully sold millions of hectares of land, and so its use for irrigation and the surrounding land use change has surely got to have impacts for other countries such as Egypt and the surrounding environment/ecosystems.

Do the positives outweigh the negatives?

I think I have focused slightly more on the negatives but there are some positives to such deals and not only for the investors. A lack of money is one of the main factors that restricts countries from developing (i.e think about comparisions in transition speeds of countries through the DTM...) and so the injection of money as a result of the presence of rich countries/companies can allow for the execution of government ambitions to improve health care, education, infrastructure etc and so the quality of life for its people. It can also led to an injection of knowledge into local communties regarding better farming practices, amongst other things, which could eventually lead to mechanisation of farming - a move that was incredibly significant in accelerating the development of those nations considered to be developed today.

Is this an example of modern-day colonialism? Well, I think it is hard to argue that this isn't but hopefully, if managed and controlled accordingly (and better than at present!) it can be colonialism with a difference, colonialism that can benefit both sides. Neocolonialism is an interesting idea, which presents positives and negatives and is, understandably so, a debated topic that I am guessing is going to come up at some point during our current module. What do you think? Can these land grabs every truly benefit everyone? Can they every be both environmentally and socially sustainable? How closely does this echo the 'scramble to Africa' by colonial powers in the 19th century? Do you think Neocolonialism is a good idea - should it be encouraged? Is this the future for countries with growing populations and limited resources? Will this help or hinder Africa's development? Let me know what you think!

Darfur - A student's film review

2011-09-03T14:31:00.000-07:00

My Geography film of the week this week was Darfur - a film that was suggested we watched for the Development and Globalisation module. Before I write any more I have to emphasise that Millie's warning about this film is one to strongly consider before watching it as it is very graphic (really not one for the faint hearted) and is a film that I would suggest you watch with a cushion nearby to hide behind - trust me, it is more graphic and horrifically shocking than 'Shooting Dogs', that film Millie made us watch at Christmas!

This film tells the story of the journey taken by a group of international journalists in the Darfur region as they search for evidence that suggests genocide has/is happening. Unaware of what they might find, this group of international journalists visit a small village in Darfur under the protection of the African Union (AU). They manage to persuade their guide to take them to a village in Janjaweed territory and when they arrive, the journalists see how the Sudanese live daily in fear of rape, torture and murder by the government and rebel militia. Whilst interviewing the Sudanese men and women for accounts to take back home to convince the UN that genocide has occured, the Janjaweed militia turn up and threaten to kill the journalists if they do not live immediately.......

I am not quite sure how much you will know about what has happened in Sudan, before it split this year, and the events that this film is losely based on, so I will attempt to summarise some of the key points. Civil conflict has occured on and off in Sudan for decades but in 2003, the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) and Justice and Equality Movement (Jem) began attacking governments targets after accusing Khartoum of oppressing black Africans in favour of Arabs. Most of the tension built up in the Darfur region which had already experienced decades of violence and tension over land and grazing rights between the mostly nomadic Arabs and farmers from Massaleet and Zaghawa communities. Government response to this rebellion wasn't approved by the international community as they admitted to mobilising what they classed as ' self-defence militia'. However the President denied all accusations that they had links to the Arab Janjaweed militia who were accused of trying to drive out black Africans from large expanses of Sudan. Refugees from this conflict say that this is wrong as air raids by government aircraft were followed by Janjaweed attacks, who would ride into villages on horses and camels, slaughtering men, raping women, taking children and stealing whatever they could find.

There has been a lot of controversy over whether or not it should be classed as a genocide as firstly they are unsure excatly how many were killed and many of those that died, died due to starvation or disease. Many human rights groups and the US have said that genocide has infact taken place but, after an investigation in 2005, the UN concluded that war crimes had been committed but there had been no intent to commit genocide. The UN has estimated that since 2003 over 300,000 people have died (mainly believe that the actually figure is much higher) whilst 2.7 million have been displaced - mainly to refugee camps near the main towns or to neighbouring Chad where, as it has a similar ethnic make-up to Darfur, the violence has spilt over. The situation in Sudan has been incredibly unstable and unsecure for years and so many aid agencies have been unable to reach those that most need the help with some even being banned from northern Sudan following the arrest warrant for the President in 2009 for alleged war crimes.
I am guessing that most of you will know enough about what has happened most recently in Sudan, with reference to its split, but if you don't there is plently to read about it on the internet!

Is this a good geography film? Well, before I watched it my brother asked my what it was all about so I told him a bit about the background to the film and his first remark was to question what excatly genocide and the recent events in Darfur have got to do with Geography. Whats the answer.......well genocide effects both people and the environment and geography is all about people and the environment and how the interact. Going down the more human geography route first, genocide has impacts that can fill all the parts of S.P.E.E.D. Often the conflict can stem from social unrest, which can be generated via political unrest, and results in huge long-lasting societal and political changes. Geopolitics can become involved due to the view taken and role played by the international community. This can, in turn, lead to trade embargoes and cause fluctutations in the global market and thus effect the economies in countries across the world aswell as the country in which the conflict occurs. Demographically, bites would become visible in population pyramids of that country whilst bulges in others due to forced migration. The mass migration away from the affected regions provokes the development of refugee camps which further increase issues with food and water availability, sanitation, spread of disease and all the other problems that are generated by the shear volume of people in such a small area being dependent on already previously limited resources. Migration to other countries only allows the violence and detrimental impacts of the conflict to spill over into neighbouring countries - an action in some cases that only sustains the violence. You can then link it to issues with aid getting to the people who need it and what types of aid are best in these situations etc. Honestly, this list could go on and on and I am sure you could think of a dozen more links to human geography straight away without too much thought; so what about physical geography? This is slightly harder but not impossible, especially if you look into what provoked the conflict. In a previous post I have already touched on the link between climatic changes and conflict and, with particular reference to the Darfur crisis, there is debate over the role played by regional climate changes in the initiation of the conflict with many arguing that drought and desertification played an influential role in stimulating civil unrest. You then have all the impacts that the conflict has on the environment so for example, if you can remember back to when we did that assignment for the energy module which included questions on the use of appropriate technology in Rwanda to help the coffee farmers as the conflict has destroyed much of the plantations and left the land unusable which then obvisouly have knock impacts on society. So, hopefully this proves the link between genocide and geography (I did manage to persuade my brother they were linked, although not to watch the film) so now I need to answer whether or not this is a good geography film.......

This film seems to have the sole purpose of shocking the watcher and it very successfully does this by presenting some truly horrific scenes. In terms of educational content, it definetly replicates what life in Darfur in the height of the conflict would have been like for people but it leaves a lot of questions unanswered - something which, to a certain extent, can be good as it should inspire you to go away and do your own research/reading into the topic. I think in relation to our geography course it is a film to watch and then link it to what you know about development, factors that affect it and the current situation in that part of the world etc. The current situation in Africa definetly sprung to mind: why didn't NATO and other international organisations get involved straight away to provide protection for the people when they rather rapidly got involved in Libya this year? For me, as a geography film from an educational perspective, I think it focuses too much on shocking the audience than necessarily educating them, although it does pick on a few key points like issues with aid agencies and the role of the international community, and I think most people will end up spending rather a lot of the time not actually watching the film but looking away (I certainly did!). I have to admit though that although I recognise that in some cases people need to be shocked into realising/accepting/understanding/taking action etc., I am not a big fan of it and I personally feel that this film went a little bit to far down that route. Despite this, there are many things that you can learn from the film and it is, without a doubt, very thought provoking! If you have a strong stomach then watch it and read up on the details about the Darfur Crisis afterwards, the knowledge you will gain from doing so will really help with geography in general as it can be linked to some many different topics - I think you could possibly even link it right back to colonialsim in relation to how colonial powers literally chopped up Africa, with no consideration of how they were dividing cultural and ethnic groups and, certainly in Sudan, the north saw far greater development than the south. After watching this film you will certainly be able to understand why both North Sudan and South Sudan are at their currently levels of development.

So, if you think you can cope with the simply horrific and disturbingly graphic scenes which run throughout this film then watch it, as I have said you will learn things from it, but I just hope you heed mine and Millie's warnings beforehand - it really isn't one to watch if you haven't got a strong stomach, it is probably a good idea to watch it with some who has so they can tell you to look away at certain points and it will leave you feeling rather depressed, shocked and horrified afterwards that these sorts of things have actually occured - feelings only intensified by the realisation that similar events have occured on the same, and large scales, in other countries around the world.

Met Office Work Experience - Day 5 (for 25-08-2011)

2011-09-02T12:17:00.000-07:00

I realise that these posts on what I did at the Met Office are like a week late but I thought that, because I had such a great time and learnt an incredible amount, I would still write them! Well, what did I get up to on my last day with the Met Office?

First up was a very interesting discussion with a researcher about ice sheets. There is currently a lot of uncertainity about ice sheets and their stability, with much of this uncertainity stemming from a lack of understanding of the mechanisms for ice sheet melt. Currently, it is believed that Antarctica is the most likely to experience significant melt and this is because much of it is under the sea. If the proportion that lies below sea-level was to melt, which scientists think could occur over the next few hundred years (although this may sound quite slow, it is considered to be rather rapid!), it would raise global sea-level by 6 metres!!! Greenland melting is an area that often recieves much attention, perhaps becuase we are unsure just how much freshwater could be released or how quicly it would occur, but for now alteast, many feel that a large freshwater input is unlikely. Before this discussion, I had never really given much thought to the influence that the angle of the bedrock, upon which the ice sheet lies, on melting but it does, in fact, seem to play quite a large role. The bedrock that the Greenland ice sheet lies upon slopes away from the sea, whilst that in Antarctica slopes towards the sea and thus making runaway melting possible. When the Laurentide Ice Sheet existed it was sat upon 'flat' bedrock, something that many considered essential for the occurence of Heinrich events. Due to this, depsite the fact that models currently cannot replicate Heinrich events, it is believed that this current climatic state cannot provoke Heinrich events. The fact that surprised me the most was that increased surface air or sea surface temperatures, as a result of global climate change, are not the biggest threat to the stability of ice sheets and would not be responsible for instigating the greatest volume of melt. Instead it is increased wind speeds.....but why?

This is a bit of an exaggeration of what happens but
hopefully you get the general idea....

Well, increased wind speeds would raise the height of local sea-level and increase Ekman Pumping. Increased Ekman Pumping would provoke old warm waters from the deep ocean to be dragged closer to the surface and over the terminal morraine, which marks the end of glaciers or ice sheets, and towards the base of the ice sheet, thus causing melting to occur. This is believed to be responsible for more melting than raised surface air/sea temperatures. One thing that scientists are unsure of though is what happens to the warm water once it passes the terminal morraine. Does it hit the base of the ice sheet and then continually circle, gradually melting away the base or does it bounce back off and return to the rest of the ocean? Understanding this is, again, crucial if predictions of ice sheet melt are to become more cetain.....

Anyway, all of this 'stuff' is important if scientists are to make more certain predictions of the future of the MOC and there is a lot of debate over just how much of an impact melt of Greenland or Antarctica would have. Most focus is placed on Greenland, as a result of its location. Some feel that perhaps, if enough of Greenland melted, it could significantly reduce the MOC intensity whilst others believe that, due to existance of sinking sites either side of Greenland, that Greenland melt could provoke a switch in sinking sites to the western side of Greenland - a switch that could have the potential to actually warm the UK during winter. There are a couple of other quite specific topics that we covered but I think I will leave them for another blog post.

After this I attended a Modelling Team meeting which was quite interesting as it provided an insight into some of the work that researchers at the Met Office are currently doing and some of the problems they are facing at present. Following this I had a chat with someone regarding ENSO, a topic that fascinates me, and as, again, there was lots that we covered,and I am a bit more confident about talking about ENSO, I am going to write another post solely on this. The afternoon was finished off with a chat about the relationship between the ocean and atmosphere and how this relationship is replicated in models. The relationship between the ocean and atmosphere is really really complex and I literally touched the very very basics. The ocean is sort of like the memory of the Earth climate system. The atmosphere cannot store things, like signals or changes in climate, and so instead it passes the signals on to the oceans. The oceans can store this information for hundreds and hundreds of years, whilst it circulates them around the world, and then passes the signal back to the atmosphere where it provokes a short term, but rapid, response. This coupling is crucial for many things such as ENSO. It is tricky to model all of the processes that link the oceans and atmosphere and all of the exchanges that happen between them (I am in the process of writing a post on the real basics of climate modelling as it is like a whole new science).

I apologise as I realise that all of my posts regarding my time at the Met Office have been a bit all over the place but I honestly learnt so much and I am not that great at explaining things. Despite this, I still hope they have been interesting to read and have given you a bit of an insight into the work done at the Met Office and some of the things I was fortunate to do whilst up there. I really cannot thank the people who made this whole experience possible enough - I learnt an unbelievable amount, gained some invaluable advice universities courses and careers etc, got to meet some great and highly intelligent people and simply had just an amazing time!!!

Met Office Work Experience - Day 4 (for 24-08-2011)

2011-09-01T15:01:00.000-07:00

Last week I was fortunate enough to go back to the Met Office for a few more days and, yet again, I learnt so much, so I thought I would try and briefly go over some of the stuff I learnt. So, what did I get up to on Wednesday (I should probably say us as Millie also came along for the day!).......

Well, first up was a discussion about a possible thermohaline circulation shutdown. I have to admit that I find the idea of a future THC shutdown really interesting and it is an area that I have given a lot of thought to over the past few weeks, hence my rather long list of questions (I am guessing Millie quite enjoyed the fact that, for once, she wasn't the one my list of questions were aimed at!). As with the previous discussion groups we covered an awful lot so I am going to try and summarise the key points - feel free to ask if you want to know more! Again, much of the discussion revolved around the idea of hysteresis (which refers to the dependence of the state of a system on the history of its state, with the lag in a variable property of a system with respect to the effect producing it as this effect varies - thats kind of the idea of it all, I think). Honestly all of this takes a lot of time to get used to..... trust me I have been trying since we first started our EPQ's and I am, perhaps, only just starting to make some real progress!

Sorry I know its not the best drawing of the graph
but I was trying to make it as simple as possible! Basically, MOC
strength (in Sv) is up the y-axis and volume of freshwater
along the x-axis

I realise that I have spoken a bit about this graph before but, what excatly are the key points to take from it? Firstly, that a freshwater input does have the ability to weaken the THC and that a reduction in the freshwater present is crucial to a re-initiation of the THC. Secondly, that the THC seems to have two stable states; a stable 'off' and a stable 'on' state; and that, because of this, the same volume of freshwater input can be responsible for the THC to be in two different states. Next up, is the fact that it seems to suggest that when the THC starts to re-initate, although for a while it will operate at a slightly lower intensity than before, it will return to its original state once the forcing has reached a constant or is reduced. Finally, is the idea that the graph indicates that a irreversible change to the THC is impossible/highly unlikely, as, as soon as the forcing reaches consistency or is reduced, the THC does in fact start to recover and return to its original state. So, does this mean that global climate change cannot provoke an irreverisble change to the THC? Well, this graph and many of the models do seem to suggest this (although predictions past 2100 haven't been made) but it is hard to say with much confidence as there is so much uncertainity over the stability of the ice sheets around the world and how much freshwater they are likely to input to the oceans if they were to melt. Due to this, most predictions are based on our more certain estimates of alterations to precipitation, directly resulting from global warming, and simply our 'best guess'.

Perhaps the greatest challenge facing researchers at the moment is applying this graph to real life - something which is only made more difficult by the complications generated by feedbacks and difficulties in validating model projections due to a lack of observations of the MOC strength. The feedbacks are also an area that intrigues me (there are loads involved in the earth system and I think we briefly touch on a few at A2) although, again, they can get a bit complicated..... There are primarily two feedbacks that I am most concerned about, in the oceans, with reference to my EPQ theme and that is the advective feedback and the convective feedback and it is the existence of these two positive feedbacks that generates the non-linear behaviour of the ocean circulation and determines the stability of the THC. What excatly do these feedbacks involve?

Advective feedback:- the THC advects salty water northward in the Atlantic, which enhances salinity and density in the north which, in turn, keeps the THC circulating.

Convective feedback:- convective vertical mixing continually removes freshwater from the surface in regions of net precipitation; thus prevents the formation of a fresh buoyant surface layer which is capable of inhibiting convection.

These feedbacks tend to reinforce the contemporary circulation pattern and maintain its stability once it has started. It is, therefore, because of them that the circulation can be stable in more than one state (i.e. is said to have multiple equilibrium states of the circulation which can exist) - this includes what would be classed as the extremes, a stable 'off' and stable 'on' state. The ability of the THC to exist in a stable state whilst the NADW formation is switched, both, either 'on' or 'off' is attributed to the advective feedback, whilst the convective feedback is thought to lead to stable states with differing convection patterns in the North Atlantic (so, for example, stable states with or without convection in the Labrador Sea). Understanding these feedbacks and then being able to replicate them in models is critical if more certain predictions for the future of the MOC can be made. I could probably talk about this for a long time but I think I will leave it at this for the moment (just let me know if you want to know more!) so I can move on to what else we did......

Snowfall last winter, as it has done over previous years, caused
major disruption to the lives of people up and down the
country. If this is going to keep occuring, should we be
more prepared? Well, some town councils have started to think
this way - my local town council announced the other day
that they had invested in 6 new shovels to use
to clear the streets if we have more snow this year -
something tells me that more would need to be done if we were
to experience 4-5 months of snow each year!

After this discussion, we talked about the impacts that a future MOC shutdown would have on the world, although primarily the UK and I should probably warn you that they do not look to great! In terms of temperature, after a complete cessation, models have projected anything up to a 8 degree drop for the UK accompanied by 4-5 months of snow cover, higher wind speeds, less rainfall, quite a high local sea-level rise and an increased frequency and severity in extreme weather events. After the problems caused by snowfall on recent years I think I will focus on how society would have to adapt if we were to annually experience 4-5 months of snow cover. The short period of snowfall experienced over past years caused societal collapse in this country as we simply did not have the means or the knowledge to adapt and so the thought of longer periods of snow throughout winter every year, as a result of a NADW cessation, should be of concern to politicians whom received much criticism for an apparent inability to deal with the situation. Agricultural patterns are likely to be the first to be affected; with growing seasons altered, a seasonal shift back to more labour intensive time consuming work, both quantity and quality of winter vegetables reduced with farmers unable to lift them during frosts and greater expense involved in keeping livestock. As with transport on a whole, food distribution would be restricted with particular issues in relation to fresh food. In January 2010, one milk producing company, who supply 80% of the organic milk consumed in Britain, had to throw away 100,000 litres of milk as tankers could not collect it and farms do not have the storage capacity. Combining the above would incur raised food prices and, in the long run, possibly even provoke farmers to move away from commercial-sized farms to reduce expenses. People’s mobility would be inhibited with roads unsafe to navigate and public transport not running, leaving those in remote rural locations and the elderly isolated with limited access to amenities, an issue that would only increase year on year if the UK’s population continued to age. Alternatively, this could promote a switch to people living more self-sufficient lifestyles with vegetable patches in gardens etc. so that they would not be as reliant on supermarkets as a food source. Further strain on already stretched health care would be generated, with accidents more likely in icy conditions, increase in time taken to reach those injured and issues with both patients and staff reaching hospitals. Education would be affected (yes, I realise that we all love it when college is closed due to snow but it would soon become a great convinence if it was to happen over a long period every year!), with snow capable of causing significant disruption during exam periods and to those who presently travel further afield to gain an education in the best possible institutions. One of the largest impacts would be on the economy, with the 2010 snowfall reducing economic growth by 0.5% in the UK, as consumer spending is often at its greatest approaching Christmas and so better contingency plans would have to be generated to minimise the impact on the economy. Increased snow cover could provoke a shift in employment sectors as construction work could become seasonal, therefore affect unemployment levels and perhaps increase the percentage of the population with office based work that, during winter months, could be completed at home. This could, in turn, reduce the number of TNC’s attracted to the country whose arrival often prompts cumulative causation. Finally, if this prolonged snow cover is going to occur frequently, then more will be expected of local councils to deal with the situation, keep roads gritted and services and schools open. That is just a few of the impacts that increased snowfall would have on the UK, and there are many other impacts associated with the other factors. So, how do you think society would cope with the impacts of a future MOC shutdown?

To finish off what was, again, a really great day, we attended a seminar on 'The Effect of the QBO on Lateral Mixing and Transport in the Stratosphere' and, to be honest, I only managed to follow like the first 5 minutes (which was still a struggle depsite the fact I tried to do a bit of reading up on QBO the day before). The other seminars I attended previously were hard enough to follow but this one very very quickly went way way way over my head! I will try and cover the real basics of QBO but I am still very unsure of it all so you will have to bare with me.....

QBO observations - note alternating westerly and
easterly phases

QBO (known as the quasi-biennial oscillation) = the layer of winds that encircle the Earth in the lower stratosphere, at altitudes 20-40km, between latitudes 15N and 15S. They blow at velocities of 25 to 50m/s. They are alternately easterly and westerly, reversing every 13 months (if anyone knows how or why they do this I would be very interested to know!). QBO was originally known as the Krakatoa winds, with this name being dervived from the role that the winds played in dispersing the ash, from the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa, in the atmosphere. The QBO is a slow oscillation, in terms of both strength and direction, of the zonal wind in the lower and middle stratosphere over the Equator of the Earth's atmosphere. Overall, it has a period of about 2 years and has been observed, in climatological records, for more than 50 years now. The mechanism that drives it is apparently quite simply but, perhaps because my knowledge of the basics of atmospheric circulation is not great, I am struggling to get my head around it all and I don't feel confident that I could explain it well enough. This is a link to an introduction of the basic mechanism with a few diagrams that is, perhaps, one of the easiest to understand explanations I have managed to find online - Introduction to the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. This other website is also worth a look at, if you are interested in QBO, as it breaks most of it down into bullet points and picks out only the main points - The Quasi-Biennial zonal wind Oscillation (QBO). In short,

Zonal mean wind as a function of time and latitude at 10mb

QBO:
- oscillation in mean zonal winds of the Equatorial stratosphere between easterlies and westerlies
- period of 28 months
- westerly shear zone propogates downwards more regularly and rapidly that easterly ones
-phase of the QBO affects the location of the extratropical surf zone by moving the zero wind line
- tropical mixing extent is dependent on the QBO phase
strong mixing extends to low latitudes of QBO pahse in stratosphere
Brewer-Dobson Circulation:
- large-scale middle atmospheric circulation
- responsible for long-term persistent transport of air and chemical nutrients from the troposphere to the stratosphere
- driven by Rossby wave breaking in the tropical stratosphere
Tropical Pipe:
- Tropical Pipe model of stratopsheric transport
- Tropical region bounded by subtropical edges of the wintertime surf zone which is isolated from the vigorous mixing of the extratropic surf zones
- edges of the Tropical Pipe barriers are moving

The seminar discussed the "influence of the stratospheric potential vorticity distribution in lateral mixing and transport into and out of the tropical pipe, th elow latitude ascending branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation" and then presented the clear pattern that apparently exists between the above and the phase of QBO. I think the idea was that the phase of QBO dictates the amount of mixing that occurs as the phase of the QBO affects PV (potential vorticity) structure in the stratosphere. So, during the westerly phase, a strong PV is expected at the Equator which would isolate the Southerm Hemisphere from mixing and allow for greater 'in' mixing. During the easterly phase, stronger PV gradients at the subtropics limits Northern Hemisphere mixing and so particles remain in the tropics, where little mixing into the tropics occurs. I not quite sure if this is making any sense at all as I think the more I write about it the more confused I get about it all - therefore it is probably best that I just leave it at that! Sorry, I realise that my write-ups about the seminars have been really bad but honestly, they have all very quickly gone way past my level of understanding so, writing about the basics that they have been based on is about as much as I am currently able to manage.

Anyway, it was another great day and I hope Millie enjoyed it too!

Is there a link between climate patterns and conflict?

2011-08-28T07:28:00.000-07:00

Peru's civil war erupted during an El Nino year

Ok, so this summer holidays I had planned to try and link various topics to development but, so far, I havent got very far down my lists of ideas and, as we go back to college fairly soon, I thought I had better start! Here goes for one of my first, the link between climate and civil conflict which, of course has/had a knock-on impact on development.......

A recent study has made the first link between global climate patterns, specifically ENSO, to the onset of civil conflict and, perhaps most interestingly, a factor that is being placed on a par with poverty. Researchers at Princton University have been looking at conflicts that have occured between 1950 and 2004 that killed more than 25 people a year and then compared those years with whether or not we were in a El Nino or La Nina. The analysis included 175 countries and 234 conflicts, with more than half being responsible for 1000 deaths, and concluded that the risk of conflict in tropical countries rose by 3% during La Nina to 6% during El Nino; with this affect being absent in those countries who only experienced a small impact thanks to the climate cycles (essentially countries with a temperate climate). This study has shown that 1/5 of the conflicts that have erupted since 1950 are a result of the cyclical changes in climate which have, primarily, triggered reductions in food production.

Although ENSO has wide and varied effects, I think it is quite unsettling to think that cyclical short term variations in climate can seem to have such an impact when the predicted changes as a result of global climate change are likely to be much more extreme and long lasting - so just how are we going to adapt to those???

Is it just coincidence that cyclical climatic changes have occured
just before the eruption of civil conflict in many developing
countries?

Anyway, this doubling of the risk of conflict is quite large, and the study seems to suggest that the imapct of El Nino is immediate, with the onset of conflict erupting within months of the start of an El Nino event - a correlation independent of other local weather events which are also capable of generating tension. The study related outbreaks of violence in countries from southern Sudan to Indonesia and Peru to the cuts in food production triggered by El Nino. Using southern Sudan as an example, warfare broke out during 1963 (an El Nino year) and then again in 1976 (again an El Nino year) and then in 1983 (a very intense El Nino year), with the conflict lasting for more than 20 years and leaving more that 2 million people dead and millions displaced. In contrast, Australia, whose climate is also controlled to some extent by ENSO has had no civil conflicts which suggests that less developed countries lack the resourcse to adapt to the varability generated by these cyclical climate changes and so are more vulnerable to its impacts - a fact that suggests that climate still hinders the development of countries today.....

Hopefully provides a general idea of the varying
impacts of El Nino on the climates of many
countries

So, what is it about El Nino that increases the risk of conflict? Well, the study is yet to explain this and doing so is going to be hard due to the global variability in the impacts of El Nino. Best guesses, at present, seem to point towards increased temperatures in some regions leading to droughts, thus reducing crop yields which, in turn, would provoke a hike in global food prices - something that, thanks to the international market, would spread the climate signal around the world. Although most believe it is the impact on food production that triggers the violene, other ideas include a rise in unemployment and an increase in natural disasters.

This seems to be the first clear link between civil conflict and climatic cycles and I think it only reinforces the idea of our dependency on climate and the dictatorial role it has played and, perhaps, continues to play in terms of development (post on this idea hopefully on its way soon!). I must admit that it does concern me that if ENSO, an example of a short term cyclical climatic change which we are forever understanding and predicting better, can have such an impact on social unrest; how is mankind going to cope with the sea-level rises, droughts, famines, more natural disasters etc. that are predicted to accompany global climate change - a change in climate whose impacts are going to be much further reaching...........

Earthquake hits East Coast of America.......Could it have been caused by fracking???

2011-08-24T12:25:00.000-07:00

Yesterday, a magnitude 5.8 earthquake hit Virginia, with tremors being felt in Washington D.C. and New York City. Although in comparison to the earthquake that hit Japan this year it sounds rather small, for this region, it was quite large and is currently being classed as a 'rare but significant event for the region'. Earthquakes rarely strike this region, primarily due to its distance from any tectonic plate boundaries (closest being about several hundred miles away in the Altantic), and when they do occur they are generally less severe - although the risk is not insignificant. In contrast, California experiences more severe and frequent earthquakes as the San Andreas fault runs practically straight through it.

(I have ratherly cheekly copied the video that Millie posted on the FB page)

Despite this being the largest earthquake to hit this area since the 31st May 1897, and the fact that it was above 5.5 in magnitude (kind of like the threshold above which it becomes a concern in relation to structural damage), it is believed that the impacts will be relatively minor. At 5.8, it is just below the magnitude required for liquefaction to occur, something that often causes significant damage, and structurally, the earthquake is only believed to have caused a few cracks in buildings and a few collapsed chimneys etc. The two nuclear power plants in the region where successfully shutdown.

So, what caused this earthquake???

Well, some scientists believe that it could be caused by the release of stress from a small thrust fault in the region. The impact of the earthquake was then increased by the fact that, because it occured far away from major plate boundaries, the continental rock is much older (bedrock beneath Virginia is believed to have formed when the continents collided to form a supercontinent about 500-300 million years ago) and denser, so more like a solid sheet of bedrock, and so the seismic waves were permitted to travel further.

Another suggestion is that fracking could have caused the earthquake. Now I don't personally know that much about fracking but I will try and explain why some believe that a recent rise in fracking could have provoked the earthquake. Correct me if I am wrong but I believe that fracking, or hydraulic fracturing, is the man-made splintering of underground rocks to speed up the exploitation of natural resources and, since its inception in 2004, has become increasing popular as it can allow for the recovery of oil and gas supplies. Due to the impact that fracking can have on the geological make-up of the Earth many are starting to insinuate that it could cause earthquakes. In locations were fracking occurs, the waste salt water produced is injected back into the earth (after the fractures have been created) and some estimate that, in each well, 3 million gallons of waste is injected. With reference to the East of USA, earthquakes, as previously mentioned are rare, but the surrounding area has experienced 8 minor tremors last year alone - an area that has also seen an increase in fracking operations over the past few years.

This is not the only earthquake that some are suggesting has been caused by fracking. The USGS have said that "Earthquakes induced by himan activity have been documented in a few locations in the United States, Japan and Canada" with "The cause the injection of fluids into deep wells for waste disposal and secondary recovery of oil and the use of reservoirs for water supplies". Geologists have more recently blamed fracking for the 20 tremors witnessed in the state of Arkansas in one day; also similar size earthquakes have been experienced in Texas, New York and Oklohoma, all of which are not normally likely locations for epicentres but have experienced a significant increase in fracking over the last few years. What is quite interesting is that the multi-stage fracking being held responsible (it drills several miles deep into the Earth), has only recently, over the past 2 years, become prevalent in the above mentioned areas, all of which have seen a rise in tremors, and have since banned fracking - an action that seems to have been followed by a reduction in size and frequency of tremors. Since this, more states are now reviewing their current legislation on fracking.

So, what do you think? Is it possible that these earthquakes are really being caused by fracking and if so, along with some of its other detrimental impacts, is this reason to prevent it from being utilised in the future? Do you actually think that we would ever place a global ban on it, due to our increasing hunger for energy and dwindling supplies of oil? On the other hand, do you feel that a release of stress from the thrust boundary is a more logical explanation? My knowledge on this is a bit limited so if anyone knows are more I would love to hear about it! Let me know what you think.........

Whilst on the topic of earthquakes, I read this other blog that is related to geography (kind of more human geography I suppose and is one that Millie suggested) written by this person from Sheffield University, and he produces these really interesting maps as a graphical way of presenting data (they are a bit different to maps I have ever seen before!). He wrote a post yesterday on the earthquake, although it focuses a bit more generally just on earthquakes as a whole and the impacts, which is definetly worth a read. Magnitude 5.9: Earthquakes revisited I do try and keep some sort of balance between my human and physical geography posts but if you are ever looking for something human related to read, his posts are often quite interesting - it is included on my (extremely short!) blogs I read list at the bottom of the blog so keep an eye out for it in the future! If you ever come across anyother earth science related blogs you think are worth reading just let me know - I am always looking for different things to read!

Hurricane Irene becomes first hurricane of the Atlantic in 2011

2011-08-22T11:42:00.001-07:00

It could, perhaps, be said that hurricane season has offically begun with the first hurricane of the year forming over the Atlantic. Hurricane Irene is currently heading towards the Dominican Republic and the east coast of America, after hitting Puerto Rico earlier today.

So far, the hurricane has sustained winds of 80mph, accompanied by torrential rain. Many in Puerto Rico's capital had to seek emergency shelter ahead of the storm. The islands main airport was overwhelmed with people trying to get off the island before Irene hit earlier today and, due to flight cancellations, many holiday makers have been left stranded. It also cut power to more than a million people, flooded the streets and brought down trees. As of yet, no deaths or serious injuries have been reported but a state of emergeency has been declared warning people to stay indoors.

However, the biggest threat currently seems to lie on the island on Hispaniola (the island shared between Haiti and the Dominican Republic), as, thanks to last year's earthquake, 600,000 people still live without shelter and, due to the deforestation that has occured, the area to more prone to flooding and landslides. As a result, the Dominican Republic has a hurricane warning in effect, with a hurricane watch in effect in northern Haiti and the Bahamas. It is expected that latter in the week Irene may hit Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas in the US.

23-08-2011
Hurricane Irene strengthens as it swirls over the Caribbean

Geography Picture of the Day - Formation of the Gulf Stream

2011-08-22T11:42:00.000-07:00

I have spent some time this afternoon trying to create a way of representing the formation and journey of the Gulf Stream with minimal text. I am really bad at writing succintly so this has been a bit of a challenge and there is still way too much text on it, but I thought I would share it with you all anyway (any feedback on it would be great!) as I think, when it comes to the climate module, we do have to know a little bit about ocean circulation and this particular current, along with the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), play an influential role in moderating our climate.

Has this blog been useful?

2011-08-20T02:08:00.000-07:00

I first started writing this blog after my January skills exam and seeing as we only just got our AS results the other day (I hope everyone got the grade they wanted/needed!) and this is offically my 100th post, I thought I would write a little bit of feedback about my experience and whether or not I think this helped me with my exam.

Well, I was rather relieved on Thursday to find out that I did well enough in my Geography exam and honestly I think that part of the reason is because of this blog. It has really helped me with my writing (especailly writing essays faster!) and it was an invaluable revision tool, something different to the other revision methods I use. Due to writing it, I found it so much easier to link what we got taught in lessons to the geography that was currently happening around world and to recall facts/statistics from the case studies. I even think it helped slightly in some of my other subjects as I have had to learn (and am still learning) to structure what I write, get straight to the point so as to write more succintly (as evident from some rather long posts I am still trying to master this!) and to stay as focused as possible on what I am supposed to be writing about. I am really hoping that it has been beneficial to atleast some of you too, especially during the revision period leading up to the exam. Whilst on the topic of my exam results, I would like to say a huge thank you to the Geography department as they helped me so much over the course of the year! Nikki and Nick marked loads and loads of my essays/work over the past year and probably got a bit fed up with seeing me in workshops with a pile of essays in my hand, accompanied by a long list of questions! Millie, well what can I say, all year she has put up with my endless question asking (I think my curosity may have been bordering on annoyance at times - I do apologise! ), she has taught me so much about the world of geograhpy, helped me start to improve my writing style, encouraged me to always further my knowledge outside of the classroom, ignited an enthusiasm/passion for the subject (although she may regret/be regretting this!), made me realise that I can actually be quite good a geography when I want to be and so perhaps should be pursuing it in the future and finally got me to start blogging!!! So, thank you, all three of you, as there is no way that I would have progressed as far, in terms of my geography skills, or done as well in my exam without you and I look forward to the year ahead!

As I have found writing this blog so useful, and it keeps me out of trouble, I am planning on continuing to write it. I have been looking back at some of my posts and I realise that I need to try and reduce the amount I write and include some more pictures so that they look at bit more interesting at first glance. I have a tendency to get a bit carried away and write a lot, sometimes in too much detail, but I am going to try my best to stop doing this - no promises though! I thought I might try and do a few of those video posts that Millie has done in the past as, firstly, I personally found that really beneficial and, secondly, it may be a welcomed break from lots of text. I am also going to try and maintain a bit more consistency in my blogging as I realise that sometimes I may not write anything for a week or so and then the next minute I write like 5 posts in a day and most importantly I am going to make sure that I actually write about what my title suggests - what I learn in lessons not just all the stuff I learn outside (although that will still greatly feature!).

What would be really good to know is whether or not any of you have found this blog useful? Do you think you would benefit if I carry on writing it? Is there anything you think I should do more or less of? Basically any feedback would be great and not just on my blog. I know Millie would probably really appreciate some feedback on all this social media in education stuff she it doing. There is a discussion group set up on the FB where you can leave comments, or on her blog. I personally think what she is trying to do is really amazing and that it makes the learning, consoldiation and revision processes for us students so much easier as there is always somewhere for us to go to find out what has been taught, something to read, somewhere to discuss and debate and somwhere to ask questions or ask for help. So, let us know what you think!

Inertia Currents

2011-08-20T00:39:00.001-07:00

You may have got the impression from some of more recent blog posts that I have been spending quite a lot of my summer holidays trying to learn some of the basics of oceanography. Unfortunately, as our EPQ's can only be 5000 words long and have to be very specific, there are lots of interesting things, especially with regards to the thereotical side of physical oceanography, that I have to leave out. Instead I thought I would perhaps do a few more posts on here about some of the stuff I have been learning as, you never know, it may come in handy when we do the climate module as the oceans and atmosphere are very closely linked. So, first up is inertia currents........

Winds are not always constant in strength or direction and so when a wind that has been driving a current ceases to provide sufficient energy to do so, inertia currents are created. Momentum will not leave the water immediately as, in open ocean, it takes a while to dissipate and whilst in motion, frictional forces and Coriolis force will continue to act upon them, thus resulting in a circular motion that characterises inertia currents. The extent of this circular motion is determined by the influence of Coriolis over other forces with the most circular inertia currents being generated when Coriolis is the only horizontally acting force on a current whose journey involves minimal latitudinal movement. The energy in the oceans is both kinetic, by virtue of its motion, and potential due to the displacement of isopycnic and isobaric surfaces and it is this huge store of potential energy in the oceans that ensures that the ocean circulation would take a few decades to completely cease if global winds stopped blowing.

Various possible paths for inertia currents

There is, as with oceanography as a whole, an awful lot of maths involved with inertia current to calculate things like the centripetal force (which is essentially the Coriolis force in this case) so you can then move on to work out the period of the inertia current. I will spare you all the maths - I am currently staring at a bunch of equations that work this all out in a textbook and trust me it doesn't look very pleasant at all!!!

Plan view demonstrating inertial motion in the
Northern Hemisphere

Anyway, apparently the equations demonstrate that, in an ideal situation, the only variable affecting the period of the inertia current (basically the time taken for a water parcel to complete one circuit) is latitude so, approximately, at latitude 45 degrees, it theorectically, the period of the inertia current is 17 hours whereas, at the Equator, it becomes infinite.

Thats some of the theory, but these currents have actually be identified and observed in real life from the current measurements taken in many parts of the oceans. Here is an example of one observed in the Baltic Sea. The wind-driven current flowing to the north-north-west has been superimposed on by the inertial motion which, at this latitude, has a period of about 14 hours and, therefore, the inertia current died out after around 9 or 10 rotations.

Plan view showing the inertial motion
observed in the Baltic Sea

So, I think thats about it really on inertia currents - I hope some of you found it interesting!

Geography Picture of the Day - Could seawater solve the freshwater crisis?

2011-08-20T00:39:00.000-07:00

By 2025, it has been predicted that 1.8 billion people will live in areas of extreme water scarity and so, desalination (the removal of salt from water) is increasingly being proposed as a solution to this huge problem. However, before desalination can make the impact required to solve the looming water crisis, much worl needs to be done to overcome the obstacles that make it an expensive and inefficient process......

Desalination plants such as the U.K.'s Thames Gateway facility use

reverse osmosis technology.

Scientists predict that by 2016, the amount of fresh water produced by desalination plants will exceed 10 billion gallons (38 million cubic meters) a year, or double the rate in 2008. Modern desalination plants use a technology called reverse osmosis, which involves pressing salty water through really thin, semipermeable plastic membranes. Unable to pass through, large molecules or ions, such as salt, are filtered out, so fresh water flows out the other side. This method wastes much less energy than earlier desalination techniques, such as heating seawater and harvesting fresh water from the steam. However a typical reverse osmosis plant can still spend up to 40 percent of its operating costs on generating electricity to run the system—a big reason engineers are searching for ways to cut costs and make plants more efficient, starting at the membrane level.

Sounds like this technology, especially if the amount of electricity required can be reduced and the efficiency increased, could be used a lot in the future to try and secure water supplies. However, I am sure that it has other disadvantages, like the environmental impacts on oceans and ecosystems. Also what would you do with the salt as I am guessing if it is on a large scale then quite a bit of salt will be produced? Linking it to my EPQ, I am unaware of how much salt would be produced but by dumping the waste salt back in the oceans, whilst removing large volumes of water, the salinity of the oceans will be affected - something intrinsic to the stability of the thermohaline circulation..........

Some external forcing factors with the ability to distrupt the general ocean circulation

2011-08-20T00:24:00.000-07:00

As I have briefly discussed before, with reference to Heinrich events, the current ocean circulation pattern that exisits has not always do so and alterations to it in the past have resulted in huge shifts in the worlds climate. As well as those previously mentioned, there are some other external forcing factors that have the ability to affect the oceanic and atmospheric circulation. I think some of this stuff, like volcanic influence and Milankovich, comes up in the A2 syllabus although I don't know how much detail we go into - probably a bit more than I have done here, but hopefully the basics will still be useful!

At varying points in time, external forcing factors have and will continue to provoke variability in the ocean circulation. Understanding them is, again, crucial as some explain the past changes that occurred, whilst others endorse future predictions.

There are two types of Precession: this diagram illustrates Axial Precession
and this alters the hemispheric distribution of insolation. For more on
Milankovich and the individual cycles see seperate blog post on
The race for a million year old ice sample

Many proxy-climate records suggest that the Milankovich ‘pacemaker’ has driven alterations in the oceans, atmosphere and the cryosphere; due to the moderation in the hemispheric distribution of insolation provoked by the three cycles, precession (23ka and 19ka), obliquity (41ka) and eccentricity (100ka). The spectral analysis of d¹⁸O variations present in marine carbonates over the last 10Ma, contain signals of all three cycles moderating high northern latitude insolation variations. Milankovich used this to explain the initiation and termination of ice ages and his theory states that the alterations in high-latitude insolation in the Northern Hemisphere are crucial in regulating the survival of snow through successive summers to warrant ice accumulation; a theory authenticated by the coincidence of glacial terminations and rapid increases in the solar insolation values of high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. The control Milankovich cycles exercise over hemispheric insolation distribution therefore dictates, although on a delayed timescale, the extension/shrinkage of ice masses (whether that be sea ice or ice-sheet/shelves) and it is because of this that they alter ocean circulation; although it is believed that precession has the largest influence. Generally speaking, the cycles range between two extremes, one favouring glaciation and the other deglaciation. When they favour glaciation, the THC is forced to downwell further south and thereby reduces northwards heat transfer and the associated ablation processes, to only further accelerate cooling. During glacial termination, the opposite is true and baseline increases in NADW intensity, beginning approximately 18ka, that parallel increasing Northern Hemisphere insolation, have been inferred from the RC11-83 South Atlantic Ocean floor sediment core. Many believe that it is the alterations provoked by this extrinsic forcing factor to the thermohaline circulation that drives, all atleast contributes, to the temperature changes that occur during transitions between glacial and interglacials.

Spectral analysis of variations of the chemical composition of ice cores have revealed that cycles shorter than those of Milankovich have occurred (periodicities of 11100, 6100 and 1470 years); with these sub-Milankovich cycles believed to be overtones generated within the climate system due to the influence longer cycles. The sub-Milankovich cycles can also be classed as an external forcing factor and can be attributed to shorter, abrupt alterations to the oceanic circulation. Precessional-driven climate alterations are believed to be linked to the 11100 year cyclicity which is being held responsible for temperature maximums being experienced every 11100ka in continents straddling the tropics. The 6100 year cyclicity seems to have a relationship with Heinrich events and other coolings such as the Little Ice Age and it is thought to only be amplified by ice-sheet presence. The shortest periodicity, because of the lethargic nature of ice-sheets, presumed to communicate readjustment of atmospheric circulation, is possibly due to solar output variations; something suggested by ¹⁴C records in tree-rings. When the sun is at its most ‘’energetic’, the Earth’s magnetic field is strengthened, blocking more cosmic rays. ¹⁴C is formed when cosmic rays hit plants, therefore measured in tree rings; with high levels of ¹⁴C suggesting an ‘inactive’ sun. Bond documented increases in icebergs and ice drift coinciding with the increase in ¹⁴C, indicating the sun was weaker at such times. Alterations in the volume of ice-rafted debris, in North Atlantic, also coincide with the 1470 year cyclicity, although are only 1/10 the size of the inconsistencies witnessed during the last glacial. Overall, there is agreement amongst scientists that these millennial-scale cycles, which have also been detected within ENSO, have a solar inception affiliated to the THC.

Volcanic eruptions, principally those that disperse ash and SO₂into the stratosphere which are most commonly high latitude (due to lower tropopause) explosive eruptions, can provoke a period of cooling that can last for a few years; like Pinatubo did after it erupted in 1991, releasing 20 million tonnes of SO₂, cooling the Northern Hemisphere 0.5°C over 5 years. Despite their apparent ability to affect the climate, the effect they have on ocean circulation is debatable due to the variability produced by GCM. Some models show a connection between volcanic eruptions and a reduction in MOC intensity. However, these reductions appear to be small and short term and, this fact combined with other models not picking up the link above, suggest that the impacts of volcanic eruptions on ocean circulation, if there is one at all, is of little consequence and do not seem to pose a threat to the stability of the ocean circulation.

Invictus - a students film review

2011-08-20T00:23:00.002-07:00

This is another film based in South Africa and on Nelson Mandela and if you are planning on trying to watch this and the last film, I would advise watching Goodbye Bafana first as it is set beforehand.

So, Invictus follows the story of Mandela after he is released from 27 years of imprisonment for fighting against apartheid. After being released from prision he became the first democraticly elected president of South Africa. Instead of looking to take revenge, he forgave his oppressors and went in search of a way to unite the greatly divided country. He found the common ground he was searching for in an unlikely place: the rugby field, a place that for many had strong links to aparthied, and this is where the film's main theme lies. Through rugby, Mandela felt he could unite the broken South Africa and so he asked the national rugby team captain, and his underdog team, to win the world cup.

Is it a good geography film? Well, for much the same reasons as Goodbye Bafana, in relation to the Development and Globalisation module, it is pretty good. I think it quite nice to watch both of them as they are closely related to each other and Invictus kind of follows on from Goodbye Bafana. The film provides another look at aparthied, although more specifically some of the resulting problems in the country, and I think that to be able to understand the development of South Africa, you need to have some understand of aparthied and the impacts in had on development. Again, this film provides an insight into the levels of development in South Africa at that time and the problems that Mandela had to solve in order to allow the country to develop more sustainably. There is a bit of geopolitics throughout the film and just some other general geographical references that make it quite a good geography film to watch!

Goodbye Bafana - a student's film review

2011-08-20T00:23:00.001-07:00

So, I have been trying further my knowledge of development and globalisation before we go back to college and as I have been doing a lot of reading for my EPQ, and I fancied a bit of a break, I thought I would watch a few films. The first one up is 'Goodbye Bafana'.

Based on an inspirational true story, Goodbye Bafana tracks the unlikely but profound relationship betwen James Gregory, a racist South African jailer, and his prisoner, Nelson Mandela. Gregory is ordered to spy on Mandela because he understands Mandela's native language. No one expected that a friendhsip would grow between these two very different men and through Mandela's influence, Gregory's world changes forever, along with that of every person living in South Africa.

So, is this a good geography film and what did I learn from watching it? Well, any film that is set in another country will instanly provide an insight into that country and this film very clearly depicts what life was like for everyone, not just prisioners, in South Africa at that time. The issue of apartheid is a key theme that runs throughout and is very important in relation to how it affected the development of South Africa. It is because of this that it is a good geography film as it presents some of the reasons for the development of South Africa and why it still experiences many issues today. Due to this, it is definetly a film to watch if you can find the time!

What I taught in Geography this week.........

2011-08-20T00:23:00.000-07:00

This was literally meant to be posted about a month ago but I clearly just totally forgot - better late than never I suppose!

I have been writing this blog since mid-January now, from a student's persepective, and so this week I thought that I would try something slightly different. This week I have been helping out the Geography department at my secondary school and so I thought I would write about what I teach...............well, to be honest, it is more like what I observed being taught and then raise it to a slightly more academic level.
Most classes have been learning about hurricanes and the devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina. When asked questions, in reference to their formation, I had to refrain from going into any detail much more that the necessity for warm deep oceans and strong winds. So, after having to contain my enthusiasm all week I thought I would go into a bit more detail now (and anyway I am guessing it might come in handy when we do the climate module!). Hurricanes, tropical cyclones and typhoons are all tropical revolving storms and are named according to their location. There are a few common characteristics in the development and location of the development tropical revolving storms and they include:-

- Very warm tropical oceans (temperatures need to exceed 26 degrees Celcius), where the ocean has been warmed to a depth of at least 50m. This is necessary to ensure sustained heating over a wide area which, in turn, provides a heat source to create a large mass of warm, unstable air.
- They occur most commonly in autumn as this is when sea temperatures are at their highest as temperatures have been built up over the summer.
- They are found within the trade wind belt as this is where the surface winds warm as they blow towards the equator.
- They are usually located between latitiudes 5-20 degrees north or south of the equator.
- They trael westwards on unpredicatble courses.
- On landfall they move towards the nearest poles and are another way in which surplus energy is tranferred away from the tropics with vertical displacement through the atmosphere.
- Away from their ocean heat source they rapidly lose power and eventually become storms before they are classified as depressions.

Hurricanes in the Atlantic are often over 600km in diameter and are characterised by their relatively uniform temperatures, humidity and pressure. One of the main reasons that they most commonly form in late summer and autumn is because this is when the ITCZ has completed its move to the north of the equator and so large expanses of the ocean, to great depths, are heated and therefore so is the air above it. The convergence of air at low levels and uplift creates the very low pressure and strong winds that are required for the formation of a hurricane.
To develop from a depression into a tropical storm, the rising air currents must be maintained and that requires a constant supply of heat and moisture. As winds sweep over the ocean surface they increase the rate of evaporation and the latent heat needed to transform liquid to vapour is transferred to the rising air. Later, as the moist air rises it will conense to form clouds and heavy rainfall, releasing latent heat and further driving the storm. Once the storm has developed to a mature stage, a central eye develops with a diameter of 30-50km. This is an area of subsiding air, with light winds, clear skies and anomalous high temperatuers. The descending air increases instability by warming and serves to increase the intensity of the storm. wind speeds of 160-300km/hr are not uncommon, with larger hurricanes creating widespread damage and signinficant threat to life. Associated with the high winds are storm surges which are broad waves of water pushed ahead of the storm and excaberated by the rise in sea level allowed by intense low pressure beneath the hurricane. Intense rainfall leading to run-off on land feeds swollen rivers which may have their outlet to the sea impeded by the inundation of seawater driven by storm surges into estuaries and other low-lying land.

Once hurricanes reach land they rapidly decline in terms of energy. This is because the storm loses its source of heat and moisture over land and increased friction slows it down. If it carries on moving away from the tropics over the sea, the increasing cooler waters beneath restrict the amount of energy available and ultimately reduce the pressure difference. The average lifespan of a tropical cyclone is 7-14 days.

So, thats a brief look into hurricanes and their formation. I was going to look, in detail, into Hurricane Katrina but I might save that for another time. What did I learn during this week? Well, firstly that I am really bad at explaining things to others and at targetting what I say at specific year groups - something also proven by my attempt to research and write my EPQ!!!!! This week also made me realise just how much my geographical knowledge as improved and expanded since I first started learning geography in year 7 - even my old teacher (who taught me Geography for 5 years couldn't belive how much I know knew). My writing ability also seems to have flourished although my handwriting, compared to year 7, has shrunk considerably! It was really wierd to see some of my work from back then that my teacher has kept, and even my GCSE coursework. I honestly think that its since I started doing Geography at college that my level of understanding has so rapidly grown - along with my enthusiasm - and I know excatly who to thank for that!

Success in predicting an underwater eruption

2011-08-19T23:33:00.001-07:00

Being able to predict any form of natural hazards is an achievement and, for the first time, scientist have successful managed to predict an underwater eruption.

What does the aftermath of an underwater volcanic eruption look like? Well, if you have just watched the above clip you will have noticed that vents are releasing cloudy water months after the blast and the seafloor is covered in hardened lava.

When scientists found this sight, they were not at all surprised by it as they had forecast this event, making it the first successful prediction of an undersea volcanic eruption. Axial Seamount, off of the Oregon coast, has been discovered to behave in a more predicatable manner than previously thought, and than most other volcanoes. The reason for this is believed to be due to its robust magma supply, accompanied with a thin crust, and location on a mid-ocan ridge spreading centre.

When the volcano last erupted in 1998, the bottom of the crater subsided as magma moved upwards. The team predicted that it would erupt again once it attained the same level again. Based on a series of pressure measurements that showed the volcano was inflating, they forecast that this would happen before 2014. It is believed that the volcano erupted on the 6th April this year. Scientist were able to generate this prediction as it is the only volcano on the seafloor whose surface deformation has been continuously monitored throughout an entire eruption cycle.

Heinrich Events

2011-08-14T13:54:00.000-07:00

Heinrich events were first described in 1988 by the German marine geologist, Hartmut Heinrich, whose study demonstrated that six times during the last glacial huge iceberg armadas discharged from Canada into the North Atlantic, depositing, as they melted, lithic fragments. Peaks in the abundance of these lithic fragments far from land can only be attributed to icebergs melting as sea ice only transports dust and to further support this idea, much of the ice-rafted debris found consists of limestone similar to that exposed in much of Canada today (although lithic fragments from across the North Atlantic do feature). The lithic peaks form layers in sediment cores, known as Heinrich layers, which extend some 3000km across the North Atlantic, and seem to reflect an episodic nature in Heinrich events, with each one lasting approximately 1ka and occurring at intervals of 7-13ka (over the last 100ka).

Laurentide ice sheet during Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)

The six events described by Heinrich are not unique as there are many lesser peaks in the lithic content of sediment cores. They are, however, the largest of the now recognised events in high-resolution core logs. In every event, icebergs were released when the surrounding surface water was cold but then abruptly warmed. All of this can be said with confidence but the exact cause of the periodic surges in the flow of the Laurentide ice-sheet (covered eastern Canada) provides an air of uncertainity as explaining the cause of the characteristic iceberg armadas is slightly harder than identifying them in sediment cores. There are, though, two fundamentally differing models that try to do this.

Denton model for iceberg armadas

The Denton model is essentially climatically driven as it based on global cooling leading to greater snowfall and thus a rapid expansion of ice-sheets/shelves and then marine ablation calving the icebergs from the expanding ice-shelf. Fundamentally the Denton model lays blame with the external cause of ice-sheet/shelf expansion as a result of global cooling as the forcing factor.

Advantages:-

- Evidence supports cooling in the North Atlantic before the Heinrich events

- The model explains the surging of South American glaciers and other global responses without the need for complicated teleconnections, during the same period of time

- Around 1.5ka climate cycles are known to have occured during the last 10ka and, despite them being an order of magnitude smaller than Dansgaard-Oeschger events, they too suggest external forcing over internal forcing

Disadvantages:-

- The model cannot explain the rapidity of events

- Heinrich events do not have consistent cyclicity as early on in the last glacial period they occured every 13ka but then later on they occured every 7ka

The MacAyeal 'binge-purge' model for iceberg armadas

The MacAyeal ‘binge-purge’ model blames an internal cause (ice sheet failure) due to geothermal and frictional heat periodically building up and getting trapped beneath the ice-sheet, thus melting the base and provoking the catastrophic failure of the ice-sheet. So, instead of being climactically driven, it’s reliant on the mechanical failure of ice-sheets due to thermal modification at its base. MacAyeal suggested that the Laurentide ice-sheet grew whilst its base was frozen solid to both the crystalline rock (currently exposed on land in Canada) and the softer sediments found beneath Hudson Bay, to the south of the ice-sheet. When the base of the ice-sheet was heated enough, by geothermal heat, to cause the sediments to thaw, the rapid ice movement of the purge was initiated. Frictional heating then further increased the temperature, provoking a positive feedback as the ice movement was accelerated further. Despite this, the greater friction at the ice/crystalline rock meeting point prevented the total collapse of the ice sheet. This model highlights the fact that natural systems can display abrupt changes caused by a forcing factor that fails to change with time and so can occur independently of the external forcing factor; one of the reasons for the difficultly in making predictions about the future impacts of climatically driven forcing factors.

Advantages:-

- The model is able to explain the rapid initiation and termination of Heinrich events - something that the Denton model fails to do

- Due to its dependency on the size of the ice sheet, it can explain the irregular cyclicity of Heinrich events

- Provides an explanation of the large amount of ice-rafted debris, which forms the Heinrich layer, found in the North Atlantic

Disadvantages:-

- Cannot explain the cooling known to have occured before each Heinrich event

- It needs a mechanism, such as the NADW, to transport the 'signal' around the world

Both models have their advantages and disadvantages and as a result there is a lack of consistency in which is favoured by scientists. For some time though, the 'binge-purge' model was favoured by most but then it was revealed that some of the Heinrich layers contained material that could have only came from other ice sheets, other than Laurentide. Attempts to generate a combined model have failed to paint a clearer picture of the mechanism provoking iceberg armadas but have led to further research into the conditions surrounding such events. Some of the sediment in the Heinrich layers has been linked to areas other than those covered by the Laurentide ice-sheet, such as Iceland due to basaltic glass fragments. This suggests that separate ice sheets surged simultaneously, something unlikely unless climatically driven or as a result of increased marine ablation due to eustatic sea-level rise thanks to Laurentide ice-sheet melt. The westward thickening of Heinrich layers, across the Atlantic, and its continuation towards Hudson Bay, point to the latter being correct and it is possible that its break-up triggered a response in other ice-sheets. Evidence insinuates that three gradual advances and rapid retreats of the Laurentide ice-sheet occurred towards the end of the last glacial, with glacial advances culminating before Heinrich events; thus provoking rapid ice discharge into the Atlantic, reducing southward ice flow and resulting in rapid retreat of LIS. There also appears to be synchronicity between the North Atlantic ice-rafting events and ice-sheet growth/ collapse in the Andes and New Zealand; something which supports the idea of strong inter-hemispheric coupling of changes in temperature and therefore global forcing of climate change. Research into the abundance of left-hand coiling in foraminiferid populations in ocean floor sediment cores, accompanied with studies into the origins of lithic sediments, have indicated that iceberg-calving events have occurred more frequently than first believed (intervals of 2-3ka), albeit on a smaller scale than the six originally identified Heinrich events. Of greater importance, is that many of the fragment peaks coincided with >90% proportions of left-hand coiling foraminiferid, thus revealing that the launching of iceberg armadas corresponded with low North Atlantic SST’s, symbolising stadial periods followed by the prompt warming leading into an interstadials. The use of d¹⁸O variations as a proxy record for eustatic sea-level rise and a lack of coherence between evidence of temperature rises in ice-cores from Greenland and Antarctica imply that meltwater discharge pulses, during the above events, originate from the Northern Hemisphere; an inference only endorsed by changes in salinity that are known to have occurred in the North Atlantic. As a result it can be said with confidence that Heinrich events influenced alterations in ocean circulation.

There exists conflicting views regarding the influence of Heinrich events on THC. Some believe that the AMOC collapsed over the course of the six known Heinrich events, as a result of the influx of freshwater from glaciers interrupting the ‘normal’ circulation. Others suggest that NADW cessed as a result of each Heinrich event as the iceberg armadas placed a freshwater ‘lid’ over the northern North Atlantic. A Heinrich event is estimated to have provided a freshwater input in the order of 0.1Sv to the Atlantic, a volume believed to be sufficient to halt NADW formation, whose magnitude dictates the deep-ocean THC, and thereby explain the cooling observed in proxy data from the mid-latitude Atlantic. Some believe that Heinrich events were actually triggered by a reduction in NADW formation, due to freshwater fluxes to the North Atlantic as a result of the early deglaciation of the Fennoscandian ice-sheet. The reduced NADW formation would generate warmer SST’s, therefore perturb the ice-shelves, thus triggering iceberg armadas, allowing for the additional freshwater to further weaken, ultimately leading to the cessation of the MOC. Alternatively, several think that the collapse is relatively independent of the magnitude and origin of the freshwater input produced by Heinrich events, as long as it is transferred to North Atlantic convection sites; whilst events restricted to the Nordic Seas reduced NADW formation but didn’t provoke the cessation of the global conveyor; thus perhaps partially explaining the cause of Dansgaard-Oeschger events.

This might seem a bit random, but I have just written up a section on the past changes that occured to the ocean circulation across glacial/interglacial and stadial/interstadial and so have mentioned Heinrich events, Dansgaard-Oeschger events and Bond cycles, amongst other things; unfortunately it is beyond the scope of my project to go into any real detail into the models used to suggest the causes of iceberg armadas and so, instead, I thought I would mention them on here. I have one question though, that I would be quite interested in knowing the answer to if anyone knows, what excatly caused the frequency of Heinrich events to change, from 13ka to 7ka, over the course of the last glacial?