Showing posts with label Population Change. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Population Change. Show all posts

Monday, 31 October 2011

Global population = 7 Billion

UN predictions suggest that today the world's population reaches a staggering 7 billion and I have to admit that it is pretty cool, although slightly scary, to think that I share my birthday with the 7 billionth inhabitant of Earth -  quite fitting considering it is Halloween!

The graph above illustrates where I fit into the picture - 5,582,734,706th person when I was born, making me the 80,819,731,395th person ever alive on Planet Earth - follow the link to find out which 1 of 7 billion you are....

I realise you are not going to be short of things to read on this topic over the coming weeks so I am not going to delve to much into the details of this pretty historic moment but first up for a few statistics that I am sure we could all slip into a Geography essay (or two!) over the common year...

Globally, every hour there are:
- 15,347 births
- 6, 418 deaths
= Average yearly increase of +1.162%
Fast-growing country is Qatar at +514 people per day
Fast-shrinking country is Moldova at -106 people per day

Highest life expectancy is in Japan at 82.7 years
Lowest life expectancy is in the Central African Republic at 45.9 years

97/100 new people on the planet are currently being born in developing countries

In the UK, the population is around 62156764 and every hour there are:
- 85 births
- 66 deaths
- +23 immigrants
= Average yearly growth of 0.6%
Average life expectancy is 79.6 years (81.7 for females and 77.4 for males)

It is quite hard to visualise all these statistics regarding population expansion but this interactive graphic produced by the Guardian, based on the UN projections, is quite good, especially when aiming to make comparisons between countries. Whilst talking about the Guardian and the resources they offer, they are very good at reporting on development and environmental issues and so checking up on that ever so often would be a good way to keep up with your independent reading, or if you are likely to forget to check you can like the facebook pages for both. However, if the thought of reading lots doesn't really excite you much then they also produce podcasts which are not too long and quite interesting to listen to - I find some of them quite good for helping me form opinions on this human geography stuff - here is the link to a recent podcast on population growth.

Whats next? Will people numbers stop rising?
The global population is expected to continue to increase during the course of this century, reaching 10 billion by 2083 - follow the link above to see a clip that illustrates this quite well. However, the rate of this growth is expected to slow in comparison to the rapid rate of exapnsion witness over the last 100 years. Little of this growth is happening in countries such as the UK, who are expected over coming years to see a drastic reduction in growth with many possibly experiencing negative growth. Instead, the growth is occuring in the developing world - with Asia presently experiencing most growth although this is soon likely to switch to Africa. We have recently placed quite a bit of focus on to the issues of ageing populations and so it is easy to forget that the world's population is actually quite young, with 43% under 25 (this constitutes 60% of the population across developing countries).

I have been struggling to know what excatly to write but the idea of writing a letter to the 7 billionth person caught my eye so I thought I would give it a try.......

Dear 7 billionth person,

First up, welcome to the world! We havent really been looking after Earth that well and unless we start to change our attitude then the future does not really look that bright......

I am trying really hard not to start on a negative but I have to admit its not easy. 7 billion people on the planet - I doubt if you said that 50 years ago anyone would have believed you, especially in the given timescale. 1 billion people added to the planet in 12 years is crazy and worryingly, for a while atleast, the rate of population expansion could continue to accelerate before it begins to slow down - I would love to know what Thomas Malthus would think about this all if he was still alive today. Anyway, whilst its easy to focus on all the doom and gloom that the future may hold, I think that this historic moment in time warrants us all to sit back and reflect, reflect on the progress made my mankind over the past few centuries. As a race we have come so far and the fact that I can stand here today and say that the global population has reached 7 billion is real testament to the great thinkers of  past generations who have solved so many of the problems society has face. Yes, we have made some huge mistakes in the past, and prevail to do so, but enough of us have learnt from this to allow for progress to be made. If you are born into a developed country (although this is unlikely considering 97/100 babies are born in developing countries) you will have access to all the simply remarkable scientific discoveries and technological advancements that have been made and therefore we be able to experience the best that we have so far achieved. If you are fortunate enough to be granted this luxury, please don't be ignorant to the fact, like so many, that the world is full of inequality, poverty is rife and suffering is an unnerving norm for so many. Suffering extends to the environment we inhabit and there is no hiding the fact our current status has been built on unsustainable foundations whilst we continually threaten our world in an unacceptable and, possibly, unforgivable way.....

Perhaps, its good that the UN have decided not to name the 7 billionth inhabitant of Earth as I feel a lot of responsiblilty would have been placed on you. Instead I think the number and the idea itself that there are 7 billion people on planet Earth should be enough (hopefully!) to shock people into changing - if we don't change (and soon!) then the thousands of children born each day are only going to inherit problems, problems generated by our ignorance and arrogance. Unification is what is required as we all need to act together if our efforts are to have the desired effect. Of course, politcans and public figures leading the way will help but we need to want to change for ourselves and the good of mankind. Hopefully the symbolic nature of your existance should catalyses the reaction needed to bring about required change but we are, as a global community, quite unpredictable and do some strange things, our persistant abuse of the Earth's finite resources even though we are fully aware of the consequences just one example.

You symoblise perfectly the issue of over-population, an issue that needs to be addressed, especially as we seem intent on continuing the unsustainable lifestyles a significant amount of us lead. This problem is slightly trickier to solve than environmental issues, to some extent, as why should we have the right to dictate how many children a couple can have. Its one that, until recently, has not been publicised enough across the world and is an issue that will only get worse before it gets better. Whilst I understand the theory behind possible solutions to this issue I am not confident enough to offer a solution, as to most of the problems this world faces, but I live in hope that one day someone will and we will all listen. When that day will be, who knows, but if current trends continue it is likely to be the time at which it is almost too late. Sounds a little skeptical I know but that seems to be the way the world works these days..... we fail to change until our bank accounts feel the impacts!

Advice I can give you...... well I cannot really offer you much in the way of life advice apart from enjoy it, make the most of any access you can get to education (it really is the key to the future), be yourself, help others to the best of your ability and strive to make a difference. Don't live in the past but don't ignore it, learn from the mistakes some have made. Adaptablity is going to be the key in the future, we have messed with systems we are yet to fully understand and thus the consequences are unknown, so we have to be prepared to adapt to the coming changes and make comprimises with the environment we live in. Whatever you do, just don't lose hope with the human race, unpredictability can work both ways and hope is all that some have. It is easy to look at the future and give up but we have always found ways in the past, and hope in the future is the only way forward. If you want to really do something with your life when you are older, and be able to offer solutions to the problems our and future generations face, then become a scientist/politican. This world needs another great thinker, someone who is willing to take the risk of looking far outside the box and take a chance on their gut feelings. Whilst we currently have many great scientists who are making advancements towards understanding the impacts of anthropogenic forcing, we are in desperate need of someone who can understand this knowledge, convey it to the wider audience in a way that will grap their attention and demand their support. We need someone that can unite the world, which I realise sounds strange considering we all pretty much  share the same common goal and are more connected to each other than even before. I fear that, if we are not carefull, the resource war, which could be immentent, will be catastrophic and leave the world in an even worse state than before. This resource war, at present, may remain a theory held by many but I believe we will all learn to fear the idea, especially when the unnerving probability of it occuring not too far in the future becomes public knowledge - a war that could easily violently erupt within our lifetimes.

The symbol you form could start to unite the world and make us reflect, with the words 7 billion, I am sure, spoken far more than 7 billion times tomorrow. Its key we allow this milestone passing to have some form of resonance so in  years time we can identify this date as a key turning point in the history of mankind.....

......the day humanity decided to stop, think, reflect and ultimately change

Well I live in hope! Good luck in the future, I wish you all the best in life and what you decide to make of it.

Vicki


Writing that I harder than I thought it would be and I have perhaps been slightly skeptical (poor kid!). What would you say to the 7 billionth inhabitant on Earth, any advice or warnings you would give them?

Sunday, 5 June 2011

Existance of Climate refugees - fact or fiction?

Finding room for those displaced by climate change is an issue that is being viewed with greater and greater concern and India is one of the nations most worried about the possible influx of environmental migrants that they could experience, as rising sea levels threaten an increasing percentage of the densely populated, low-lying, coastal regions of Bangladesh (for more detail and statistics see  previous post on Buoyant Bangladesh with the link to a really good National Geographic article). The chair of the IPCC recently spoke to India's Military College of Telecommunications Engineering and said that "Our defence forces might find themselves........guarding our borders against climate refugees, as rising sea levels swamp low-lying areas [in Bangladesh], forcing millions of climate refugees across India's border". And so, perhaps, in direct reponse to this threat, India have started to construct a 6 ft high, 2500 mile long concrete and barbed wire barrier along the India, Bangladesh border. However, the question that so many are wanting to hear the answer to is, just how many climate refugees can we expect?

Well, only one person has ever tried to calculate the number of climate refugees. In 1995 a British academic, named Myers, predicted that there were 25 million climate refugees (in 1995), due most in part to the drought-stricken African nations, and that this figuire would only continue to swell until it reached 50 million by 2010 and then 200 million by 2050. Since 1995, no one has tried to improve on these estimates or actually conduct a detailed review into excatly how many climate refugees exist and so Myers' figuires have continued to feature in reports by the IPCC, the UK's Stern review of economics of climate change and the UNHCR, despite the fact that many greatly question the accuracy of them. So, why is is so hard to calculate the number of climate refugees that exist? Firstly, the definition of a climate refugee is often under much debate. As explained in a previous post, Do developed countries have a moral obligation to help those displaced by climate change?, many believe that, technically, climate refugees should be classed as environmental migrants as they neither have the same rights as refugees or are fleeing from war or politcal instability; instead they are people who have been displaced by global climate change induced environmental disasters. Secondly, it is extremely hard, and many scientists are not prepared to stick their necks out and say so, to attribute events to climate change. For example the peak of the droughts in the Sahel, in 1973, lead to millions of people moving from the area and so did the Ethiopian drought of 1983-1984 which is estimated to have created 1.5 million refugees. Hurricane Katrina, of 2005, is believed to have created 300,000 permanent Amerian refugees and millions were displaced by the Pakistan floods last year. It is clear to see that these natural disasters have forced people to migrate but were these disasters induced by global climate change? This is slightly harder to prove but, as we gain a better understanding of the changes occuring it is becoming easier. Al Gore, famously, publically stated that human induced climate change was responsible for Hurricane Katrina and a few reports released this year, after the devasting flooding experienced across the globe which is attributed to an execptionally strong La Nina (which could be linked to the record high sea temperatures possibly provoked by global climate change) have started to publish links, with evidence, between disasters and global climate change [see Dealing with the aftermath of flooding for more detail on the reports published]. Finally, it is, often, difficult to discover the root cause of people's migration and although it cannot be denied that climate is frequently a contributing factor, whether or not climate alone causes people to migrate is different. Discovering whether or not climate is the root cause of migration is hard as this factor is normally shrouded by the clearly visible economic impacts that changes to the climate have. In Mongolia, for example, changes to climate led to the destruction of pasture land which had huge economic impacts on the local farmers and provoked them to move. Due to this they considered themselves as economic migrants when strickly speaking surely they are environmental migrants as the economic hardship experienced was provoked by changes to the climate. It can also work the other way around as, initially, the 1 million people in Mexico who were displaced, in the 1990's, by hurricanes and floods who first considered to be enviornmental migrants but after further analysis it was decided that they were in actual fact economic migrants as it was the economic crisis in Mexico that first provoked people to migrate and then this process was only accerlated by the hurricanes and floods. Myers intitally predicted large scale migration in India and China with 6 million environmental refugees in China, due to the expansion of the Gobi desert, but, a recent EU report concluded that it was, infact, the large scale development projects, like the Three Gorges Dam in China which has displaced 2 million, that has contributed the most to migration.

A recent review by the UNEP of several case studies concluded that, only, the 100 people from a coral atoll in Vanauta and 500 from an island in the Bering Strait, whose coastal villages were destroyed by waves, which had been intensified by the disapperance of sea ice, were actual climate refugees as they had to migrate inland for safety. Although this may prove that climate refugees are something more than a myth, it has fuelled further skeptism as 600 people compares rather badly with the 25 million Myers predicted and only strengths the arguement that climate refugees do not exist to the potentially catastrophic proportions predicted. Contributing to this belief is that fact that many don't think that climate changes necessarily lead to migration as migration is not the easiest thing to complete - especially when lacking the essential resources which are scarce during droughts and floods; two events that some view as being global climate change induced environmental disasters that provoke people to move. The Sahel area, over past decades, has been greatly affected by drought and so many have chosen to leave the area but latest figuires suggest that migration rates actually decreased during the worst droughts - this only supports the above belief held by some.  Many of those who hold this view fear that global climate change will actually have the opposite effect and instead of forcing millions to migrate, it will  remove the mobility of people and their ability to migrate to safer areas. Another agruement, against the existance of climate refugees, is the fact that perhaps people have always moved, and will continue to move as part of a stragegy to cope with the world's variable climate and take industry with them; thereby not moving becuase of a direct threat but because conditions are more ideal in another location. This starts to link in with something I started thinking about when I was revising the population module which is the impact that climate has on development and whether or not climate had a bigger impact on development when we started developing than it does to countries developing knowadays - but thats a topic for another post.

I can feel that I am starting to go slightly off track and if I continue this will probably go on for ever so I think will finish up pretty soon! From this, I think it is clear to see that it is extremely hard to calculate the actual number of climate refugees that exist, for the various reasons discussed, but perhaps even harder to prove that they don't exist. If this is true, is this a case of an environmental crisis provoking a population crisis or will the world  community be able to cope, as the global population continues to grow, with less habitable land? Will the global community respond by increasing the rate of urbanisation as cities are likely to be more greatly protected? Of course there is also the debate of where those, especially the estimated 30 million displaced, by rising sea-levels, from the Bangladesh coast line, are suppose to go? Is it right that India are building a physical barrier to prevent migration from Bangladesh? Who should take responsibilty for these people who, some, consider to be the victims of the developed worlds unsustainable lifestyles? The questions surrounding this topic are endless and the answers highly debatable (as with anything even remotely linked to global climate chage, it seems). Where do I stand on this topic........ Well, I am still a bit unsure on some of the things but I think I agree that climate refugees/enviromental migrants exist but to what scale I am unsure. I think part of the problem is that many are not aware about this issue and those that are displaced by climate change as it is not something that makes headline news all the time and I, myself, only found out about some of the case studies I mentioned above as I went looking for them. The other influential factor is that, climatic push factors are often shrouded by the more visible, resulitng, economic factors and so it is increasingly hard to determine the root cause. I do think though that global climate change, a likely environmental crisis, has the potential to provoke a population crisis and that, maybe, an increase in urbanisation would be an initial response - especially by those living in countries threaten by sea-level rise where the inland cities offer safety. If this was to occur then I believe it would be accompanied by detrimental social impacts such as issues with living conditions and sanitation, unemployment and food and water shortages. India building a barrier to prevent illegal migration and the movement of cows was always going to be a controversial move and although it will not help remedy the problems Bangladesh is and will continue to face, India itself cannot cope with an influx of migrants. When I was in India I spent most of  the time in Chennai, a city that is extremley densely populated, and if I am honest the thought of India's population exceeding that of China's before 2030 scares me as, already, only a tiny proportion have access to housing, sanitation, food, clean water, health care and education and shanty towns can be found in every direction you look and so at present, I feel that India cannot, without severly risking the already poor living standards of its population, help Bangladesh and its people on the scale needed. The idea of responsibilty is, with out a doubt, the one question that I am really struggling to make a decisive decision on and, after my last attempt at answering the question a few months ago, I am yet to make much progress on forming an opinion. Its tricky - especially when the effects that global climate change will have on all the different countries is still up for debate. Idealistically, I think that, if we view the world as being a global community then each country should do what it can to help out others which will mean that some countries will take more responsibilty than others  but with the present state of global affairs and politics I think that this is, perhaps, slightly to far from reality and won't occur unless necessity demands it too or politicians, especially in the most powerful nations, start to fully appreciate the significance of their nations interdependcy on some many others. I don't think I would, at present, be able to whole-heartedly agrue my opinions as I still have a few reservations and so I will probably come back to this at some point after further thought and a bit more reading around the subject but I am very intrigued to know what you think about it.........

Sunday, 24 April 2011

Migration Case Studies

As I worked through the population module yesterday afternoon, I soon realised that I didn't have any notes on any of the migration case studies and so I have spent this morning reading up about each of them and I thought, due to the fact that I know I am not the only one lacking notes on this, that I would type them up on here instead of writing them all out by hand.

Bosnia Herzegovinia

Origin of the Area
After years of unstable governments, economic problems and conflict; the central European country of Yugoslavia spilt up into various countries. The process started in 1991, when the country spilt into four, and has continued for years up until the present day. Bosnia Herzegovina, one of the largest countries to come out of the division and it gained its independence in 1992. The areas population structure of Serbs, Albanians and Croats has historicaly been a place of ethinic conflict, which was ultimatly the cause of the spilt.
After the formation of the country, war broke out and years of fighting between the ethinic groups followed. Ownership of land was disputed, resulting in ongoing conflict that led to economic and  political instability across much of former Yugoslavia. Thousands of people were killed until the area settled down in 1995, but even today it is far from stable.

Migration inside Bosnia Herzegovinia is forced, meaning people are moving because of fear. Forced migration within the country is due to the ongoing conflicts, and is displacing thousands of people from their homes. Many moved to cities or towns and stopped at the nearest safe place they could find. Others emmigrated to other countries. It is estimated that 40% of those who emmigrated went to either  Serbia, Montengro or Crotia whilst some went to the USA, Canada and Australia but the majority emmigrated to Germany and Austria.

As a result of the ethnic cleansing that took place it is thought that around 102 000 people were killed and just under 2 million people were displaced.

Push Factors
Þ  Heavy conflict meant that the threat of losing your life was forever present
Þ  Lack of tolerance for religious and cultral diversity
Þ  Frequent violations of basic human rights
Þ  Poor public services and other facilites
Þ  Lack of employment and economic stability – conflict destroyed crops and farm land
Þ  Destruction of property and infastructure                                                                             

Pull Factors
Þ  Religious freedom –people fled to where their ethnicity was a majority not a minority to try and avoid the ethnic cleansing
Þ  Safety in numbers – more people lived in the cities and towns and the death threat was not as prominent
Þ  Stable economy – adults needed jobs and a realiable income to sustain a family
Þ  Better infastructure that had not been devasted by the conflict
Þ  Better and more widely avaiable facilites and public services

Migration Obstacles
These are problems people face in the area that could prevent them from migrating. In the current situation, most people will face problems but because they are migrating through fear, will find ways to overcome them. If the situation is forcing people to migrate, most will go to any extent to find a safe place to live. Despite this, people could face problems such as lack of money or transport and confusion as to where a safe place to go actually is. Most will end up going to urban areas, resulting in general rural to urban migration in Bosnia Herzegovinia.

Positives about the orgin
Bosnia is predominantly a mountainous country with only a few regions of flat grass land used for farming. This is where most of the ethnic cleansing took place and so this caused problems with food supplies as farmers and their families migrated away from the unsafe countryside to the cities. Flat land was fiercely fought over as it was the most suitable land to farm. 

Negatives about the destination
The areas where people migrated to quickly became overcrowded and refugee camps started to appear like the one near Kosovo. It was reported that over 4000 people were fleeing into camp near Kosovo every hour. This stretched public services and also provoked higher crime rates as people became desperate. The land nearer the cities and towns was harder or impossible to farm and so food shortages were an issue.

Neutral factors of the origin and destination  
The situation in the destination, compared to the origin, is likely to be very different. It will probably be more crowded, but would not be under the pressures of conflict the origin had. Some things could remain the same however, such as general living conditions. Overall, you would probably expect life to much better in the new destination, as life would be reasonably similar to before, only without conflict.  

Effects of migration
Rural to urban migration has lead to an uneven distrubtion of skills. This has also meant that food production has been reduced as farmers left the countryside for safety. This has meant that their was no one left to farm the land. Ethnic cleansing has increased the seperation between the different ethnic groups that reside in \Bosnia Herzegovina and the violation of human rights has been reported to still occur; especially amognst the refugees that are still returning home. Although the European Union Peacekeeping Troops are still present in Bosnia Herzegovina to try and maintain the peace and stability; things are starting to improve. It is estimated that 579 000 people have returned to their original homes with many more locally intergrated.

Africa to Western Europe

Origin of the Area
Many of the countries in Africa face political instability or are under dictatorial rulers that seem to care little about the quality of life and social welfare of those in the country. Health care is poor, or non- existant, and with HIV and malaria being rife in many of the countries that make up this contient life expectancy is extremely low (the average in Africa is 47 years). The accessibilty to education is also a big problem across much of Africa and job oppurtunites are hard to find. Access to clean water, food, electricity and many of the things people in the developed world take for granted, are also extremely hard to come by.


Push Factors
Þ  Lack of health care
Þ  Lack of education
Þ  Conflict and political instability
Þ  Poor public services and other facilites
Þ  Lack of employment and economic stability
Þ  Lack of infrastucture
Þ  Lack of religious freedom                                                                              

Pull Factors
Þ  Free health care and education
Þ  More polictically and economically stable
Þ  More job oppurtunites with a minimum wage enforced
Þ  Better and more widely avaiable facilites and public services
Þ  Laws enforced in a fair and humane way means safety

Migration Obstacles
Travelling on old fishing boats from Africa to Europe is very dangerous and many do not survive the route (in June this year, 24 Africans drowned after a dinghy capsized south of Malta)which, due to people smugglers, can cost up to 2000 Euros. I Also once you get to a country like Spain, which is popular due to the fact that it is one of the closest European countries, many often get expelled from the country or repatriated. The language barrier can also present problems when it comes to communication and with living costs being so much higher in European countries, most cannot afford to find somewhere to live. The cultral barrier is another obstacle that needs to be overcome but perhaps the biggest is gaining the right to permanent residence in that country.

Positives about the orgin
The culture, language and climate are the same and all very different to those found in European countries. The skills that many of these immigrants have are most applicable to the conditions found in their origins.  

Negatives about the destination
The cost of living is very high and separation between immigrants and the people already living in the destination can create tension and, in some extreme cases, result in violence. High taxes also have to be paid.

Effects of migration
-          In 2006, about  22,016 people reached Italy by boat from Africa
-          The majority of African migrants live in Europe with an estimated 4.6 million doing so compared to only 890,000 in the USA
-          About two-thirds of Africans in Europe are from North Africa
Having migrated, many of the migrants send home money to family members they have left behind. Billions of dollars each year is sent back to Africa from migrants scattered around the world and, in some cases, this makes up sizeable chunks of the origin country’s GDP. However, it leaves many families seperated and again leads to a lack of skilled people in the origin. The impacts on the destination are, perhaps, mainly negative as huge amounts of money has to be invested in combacting illegal migration. The legal migrants though, do help to bolster a country’s workforce which, in countries like the UK who have an ageing population, is crucial if they are to  maintain a certain degree of economic stability.

Brain Drain from UK to USA

Push Factors
Þ  High taxes which, in the near future, are only expected to get higher
Þ  High house prices and day to day living costs
Þ  Poor climate
Þ  Career stagnation is making it harder and harder for newly qualified graduates to get a job
Þ  Lower salaries
Þ Industrial unrest


                                                                             
Pull Factors
Þ  Higher initial salaries are offered in the USA compared to the UK
Þ  American universites and research companies have made the effort to attract graduates over to the USA
Þ  Many feel that they have a better chance of getting a job in America
Þ  Many just want to take the oppurtunity to work abroad and see it as part of their personal development
Þ  No language barreir

Migration Obstacles
The cost of moving to America is without a doubt the biggest obstacle that needs to be overcome. The costs involved with moving to America would be huge but the fact that so many people chose to move to America suggests that the rewards must be very high. Distance is another obstacle as moving to America means that you are a long way away from family members and friends. Getting a green card/visa is also another obstacle that needs to be overcome by people wishing to move to America.

Positives about the orgin
Free health care and education system are the biggest positives about the origin. Being part of the EU means that travelling amongst other countries in Europe is easy.

Negatives about the destination
Health care system is run slightly differently and so you end up paying a lot more for it then you, indirectly, do in the UK. Higher crime rates, especially gun crime rates due to different laws.  America experiences hurricanes and wildfires and earthquakes, amongst other things, that do not occur in the UK due to the climate and location.

Neutral factors of the origin and destination 
There are similarities between the origin and destination like the fact that the same languages are spoken and, in terms of development, they are on very similar levels. This means that the facilities found, and the quality of them, will be very similar. Compared to other countries they are both quite politically stable with similar military activities in other countries.

Effects of migration
This migration has led to an uneven distribution of skills. This has rapidly changed British society as large numbers of highly skilled graduates are moving abroad and this is not match by those migrating to the UK. However, this brain drain has attracted more than a million skilled immigrants to the UK which has helped to reduce the impacts of this trend. It is believed that if the UK stopped attracting graduates from abroad the full force of the impacts of this trend would be felt. This emmigration trend is costing the country a lot of money as, for example, it costs £250,000 to train a junior doctor who, like many, is choosing to practice abroad (it is estimated that 37.7% of those emmigrating have health or education qualifications). This is greatly benefitting the USA who don’t have to pay for the training of professionals but are benefitting from their education, which was funded by the UK.

 
Poland to the UK

Origin of the Area
Poland was admitted to the EU on 1st April 2004 and with this came the right for any citizen of Poland to move freely around all the other EU countries. On the accession to the EU, it was anticipated that  levels of migration from Poland and the other A8 countries (all former communist bloc countries in central and eastern Europe) to the UK would drastically increase and this is excatly what happened. Living conditions in Poland are poor and unemployment is a huge problem and so many people have been attracted to the UK. This is only one of the three major waves of Polish immigration to the UK though. The first wave was as a result of wartime displacement and deportation with the Nazi occupation of Polish territory. The second wave occurred during the cold war when, despite the heavy restrictions on movement imposed by communist authorites, several thousand Poles joined existing groups in the UK.


Push Factors
Þ  High levels of unemployment – in 2005, 18.5% of those at working age were unemployed in Poland
Þ  Poor living conditions
Þ  Low salaries
Þ  Poor public services and other facilites
                                                                             

Pull Factors
Þ  The UK was one of only three countries (the other two being Ireland and Sweden) who didn’t put a limit on the number of migrants from A8 countries who could enter the country
Þ  English is spoken as the second language in Poland and so there was no language barrier, as such, to overcome
Þ    Migration was easy to the UK due to cheap flights and coach services
Þ    Plenty of avaliable jobs in the UK due to a skills shortage (think about the Brain Drain to the USA)
Þ    An average Polish worker could earn five times the amount he could in the UK compared to what they could earn in Poland
Migration Obstacles
Compared to the other case studies there are not many obstacles that had to be overcome. Language was not an issue, entry to the country was not an issue and budget airlines were able to offer relatively cheap transport to the UK.

Who are the migrants?
-          Around 80% are aged 18 to 34
-          Only one in ten have brought dependents with them
-          Only 3% have brought dependents with them who are under 17
-          The average age is 28
-          Most of them are single
-          The ratio of males to females is 58:42
-          Most of them are skilled/semi-skilled industrial workers and tradesmen
-          No real demographic concentrations as they choose to reside in both rural and urban areas up and down the country
-          97% of the immigrants work full time

Neutral factors of the origin and destination  
In terms of development, the origin and destination, as they are noth memebers of the EU, should be very similar. The language barrier is not present, so to speak, as English is taught as a second language in Poland. Cultural differences are not going to be wildly different either.

Effects of migration
It has been estimated that Eastern European immigrants have contributed £2.5billion to the UK’s economy and roughly 1% of the UK’s growth in 2006 was attributed to the same workers. British businesses have been able to cash in on the new market created by the presense of the young, single Poles who seem keen to join the consumer culture common in the UK. Polish shops and businesses have helped to start and rejuvenate the seriously declining shopping streets of the UK and also swell the size of church congregations. The migrants, 80% of which are aged between 18 and 34, have helped the UK cope with the problems being provoked by the ageing population by filling the gaps in the UK’s labour market and have also helped to fill the skills gap created by the brain drain. However, additional stress has been placed on the education and health care systems and demand for housing has further driven renting/buying prices higher. Also much of the money earnt is not staying in the UK as it is being sent back to Poland. In Poland, itself, this migration of young workers to the UK has helped to reduce the unemployment problems but has been blamed for increased divorce rates.

India to Dubai

-          In the UAE, 90% of the workforce (10 million people) are migrants, most of which originate from  the rural areas of  India, Bangladesh and Pakistan.
-          Dubai has a population of 1.5 million and 1 million of these people are migrants.
-          As Dubai’s oil reserves are declining the ruling family, Maktoums, wanted to invest their wealth to make Dubai the best city and so they created lots of long term building projects. Many migrants have seen this as an opportunity to earn some money whilst enjoying the glamorous city life that Dubai claims to offer.
-          The average wage of a migrant in Dubai is $4 a day and most of this is sent back home to their families.
-          Migrants who get work on one of the long term building projects have to pay for their travel to Dubai and on arrival their passports are confiscated  while they are on a contract with a firm. Exit visas can’t be obtained without approval of a sponsor or an employer. These workers live in the workers’ camps which are remote and cramped and  constructed in the desert. This thereby adds extra time, for journeying to and from the construction site, to an already long enough 12 hour shift. There are also many accusations of discrimination and violence from employers, police and security forces including sexual assaults of women.


Push Factors
Þ  Poor infrastructure and lack of housing and santitation
Þ  Areas very densely populated
Þ  Lack of job oppurtunities
Þ  Monsoon rains hampering economic progress
Þ  Lack of natural resources
Þ  Poor standard of living
Þ  Low salaries                                                                           


Pull Factors
Þ  In 2007, it was named the world’s fastest growing city
Þ  More job oppurtunites – all of which are better paid
Þ  More stable economy
Þ  Better infastructure anf facilities
Þ  Believed to offer a better quality of life

Migration Obstacles
Again the costs involved with moving are high and once you are there you are not guaranteed a job. The is also the language barrier and the cultral differences that migrants have to overcome.

Positives about the orgin
Depends greatly on where in India the people are emigrating from. A few regions, like Kerala, have good education and health care services and equality for all.  

Negatives about the destination
Many of the negatives have been mentioned at the start of this case study but to reinforce the idea……..the working conditions and the living conditions provided are very poor and violence appears to be common. Wages are not great as there is no minimum wage and spending 12 hours in the heat, building skyscrapers is not ideal. The employers also fail to pay for many things that they should including health care costs and visa fees. The corruption of the employers who, illegally, hold on to workers passports means that once in Dubai it is very, very hard to leave.

Neutral factors of the origin and destination  
Living conditions do not seem to be that different and corruption among officals is something that is common to both countries.

Effects of migration
It has eased the unemployment problems in India but has left a shortage of men to work the land and produce food for the country, as they are the ones who have been migrating to Dubai for the manual labour. The migrants offer cheap labour for Dubai and are prepared to work long hours doing the manual labour required to develop the infrastructure that is required to attract people from the developed world to this region. Despite a tight control on the media, local newspapers etc have reported on and opened the worlds eyes to the dreadful conditions and abuse experienced by the migrant workers in Dubai which has started to give it, and rightfully so, a bit of a bad reputation.  Many migrants want to move back to India, but cannot at present afford to or travel as their employers hold on to their passports. When they do manage to move back to though, Dubai is going to be left with a huge gap in its society which will affect its development, whilst the unemployment problems still present in India will be furthered.

Rwanda to DR Congo

Origin of the Area
Rwanda is in central Africa, east of Democratic Republic of the Congo where the separation between the Hutu and Tusi has caused huge problems and forced many to migrate to the DR Congo. The tension between these two groups was first created when the Belgian colonists treated the Tutsi as the superior group despite the fact the Hutu were the majority.  On 6th April 1994 genocide was sparked when the Rwandan president Juvenal Habyarimana’s plane was shot from the air above Kigali airport. With less than hours after the attack, a campaign of violence spread from the capital throughout the country, and did not subside until three months later. In Kigali, the presidential guard immediately initiated an operation of retribution. Leaders of the political opposition were murdered, and almost instantly, the slaughter of Tutsis and moderate Hutus began. This conflict later became known as the Rwandan Genocide and lasted 100 days and claimed the lives of close to 1 million people (the majority of which were Tutsis).  In July, of that year, the Tutsi’s managed to gain control of the capital Kigali and declare a ceasefire. The Hutu, fearing retribution attacks, fled to Zaire (which is now the DR Congo). It is estimated that around 2 million refugees fled from Rwanda.

Push Factors
Þ  Heavy conflict meant that the threat of losing your life was forever present
Þ  Lack of tolerance for religious and cultral diversity
Þ  Frequent violations of basic human rights
Þ  Lack of employment and economic stability – conflict destroyed crops and farm land (think about the Bikes to Rwanda case study we did in the energy module and how the genocide effected the once thriving coffee industry which, at present, is still struggling to recover)
Þ  Destruction of property and infastructure due to the conflict                                                                                   

Pull Factors
Þ  DR Congo was more stable than Rwanda
Þ  Safety
Þ  Not to far away (think about distance decay)
Þ  Better infastructure that had not been devasted by the conflict

Migration Obstacles
Surviving the journey to the DR Congo was the biggest obstacle as many feared for their lives. The migrants had also lost everything and so life, if they managed to get into the DR Congo, would be extremely hard.

Positives about the orgin
The Hutu’s were in a majority in Rwanda and safety often comes in numbers. Coffee plantations offered the most employment and many men had skills in these areas which were harder to apply in the DR Congo.

Negatives about the destination
Many of the tribes in DR Congo (then Zaire) had links to the Tutsi’s and so the Hutu’s were not always received very well. The country also had its own problems including civil unrest, unemployment and lack of food and access to clean water in many areas.

Neutral factors of the origin and destination  
Both countries had been under Beligium colonail rule and, after they claimed independence, both countries became unstable in terms of the econonic, political and social aspects of life.

Effects of migration
This migration ultimately led to many wars in Zaire as some of the tribes had Tutsi links and it was as if the conflict in Rwanda just spilled over into the DR Congo.  There have also been reports of Rwanda supplying arms and soliders to the Tutsi rebels in DR Congo. Refugee camps had to be set up to accommodate this sudden migration and thousands of the migrants died in epidemics of diseases common to the squalor of refugee camps, such as cholera and dysentery.

These are only a few rough notes that I made quickly this morning to try and fill the gaps in my knowledge. There are other things that you can add under each heading as I didn’t bother with all of the really obvious push and pull factors, for example, or bother writing about some of the origins as I think most of you will know enough of the basics about some of the countries. If you get the chance, I would suggest reading the book Blood River by Tim Butcher as it mentions the Rwandan Genocide and the effects that both Belgium colonial rule and the migration have had on the DR Congo – I started reading it the other day and it is extremely good so far (review probably won’t appear until after my exams though) and I have been struggling to put it down! Anyway back to the revision, I hope this is useful and I think I covered all the basics – let me know if there is anything I crucial I have missed out!